Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[richman777114] 07/5/2019 14:22

Paul,Good analysis-thanksPrice action over next few weeks going to be very interestingRegards,Jonathan

[fhmktg] 07/5/2019 14:18

Plenty of action both buys and sells so we should see some holding announcements late today or in the morning.

[brucie5] 07/5/2019 14:03

80 pence is a key level on the chart. Then £1. There will be many considering this, while others, particularly pis will be only too glad to get rid. First sign of a new holding RNS, we could see action.

[insideryou] 07/5/2019 13:13

Sell bot at 1000 shares v active

[insideryou] 07/5/2019 13:11

Yet still the price returns to that 80p barrier after touching 86?strange goings on? No

[polaris] 07/5/2019 11:45

richman777114 - all depends on the success of the Ellipta generic development with partner Hikma.

Generic Advair is a red herring as generics already in the market. VEC/Hikma will be 3rd or 4th in the market but there is still some value. The Ellipta IP for formulation and delivery will expire by mid-2021, some later this year. Therefore, that revenue stream from GSK will also end. It's still worth around $100M in revenues to VEC if 3% margin on total sales through to mid 2021...possibly more.

Generic Ellipta device will take 3-5 years to go through full development cycle and, if approved in the US, would mean a $2-3Bn hit for GSK in sales...p.a., assuming that the Ellipta series grows to the predicted levels (its already above £2Bn p.a.). There are 5 products in the series and VEC/Hikma are progressing at least 3 of them. Currently, the discount on this development is huge, but then so are the risks that it is not approved. GSK could wait and hope that VEC run into issues with the FDA at some point in the development cycle. If not, then the value will steadily increase towards the potential launch date.

Let's look at possible effect on total market on launch. I would expect the total market value to drop by 50% as the pricing effects come in. First entrant will aim for 40-50% of total market. Estimated market value is $5-6Bn in 2024. Let's say total market value drops to $2.5Bn and generic entrant gets 40% of market - so $1Bn. The agreement with Hikma states that VEC will be due a mid teens %age of the net profits, not sales.Another assumption...margin on sales to profits of 70% so total profit for Hikma is $700M p.a. VEC slice of pie is around $100M p.a. That would be 100% margin for VEC, plus milestones. On aunch the approximate value of ellipta generics is close to $1Bn in market cap for VEC, IMO.

How GSK approach the next few years is open to a wide degree of interpretation. I have my opinion but there are certainly a lot of unknowns and guesses on my part.

regards,

Paul

[richman777114] 07/5/2019 11:23

Paul,I would have thought that a desire to settle this litigation coupled with the potential competitive threat from the generic Advair and Ellipta products would now make GSK seriously interested in taking out VECYou concur?Regards,Jonathan

[base7] 07/5/2019 10:57

I presume meetings will be held between our respective legal teams with view to hammering out a settlement.I hope we dont concede too much if The Law is on our side.

[qnq] 07/5/2019 09:53

agree, vec could end up receiving up to 500 m. speculative but its a possibility.

[brucie5] 07/5/2019 09:52

Yes, there is a huge chart base here, stretching from early 2018. I believe it's exhausted many who saw it early and thought to benefit. Early can be almost the same as wrong. That's no doubt where Paul's fundamental analysis is very useful, and tbh, I don't understand much of it, nor have I the patience to. But this is a half decent company, no doubt, with some excellent tech. I also recall some time ago now, the share price being totally disconnected with value at around 30p, for quite some time, before it picked up again. My 5 year chart doesn't capture it, but I seem to remember it was somewhere back in about 2010.

Confidence is an amazing thing: it brings all sorts of stuff in its wake, which many had forgotten was there at all, and then seems obvious. May take a bit more time, but I would say this share has now turned the corner.

[boadicea] 07/5/2019 09:45

Bearing in mind that the low share price is based partly on negative sentiment rather than economic evaluation one might expect a more significant revaluation than that calculated purely on the value per share of the damages award... but no sign of that happening yet. The market probably awaits clarity about the possibility of an appeal first.

On the question of punitive damages, the 'wilful' finding of the court certainly justifies that. For those wishing to examine that further, there is plenty of published material, two links given below.

Punitive damages in patent infringement cases are authorized by U.S. statute. Section 284 of the Patent Act provides that, in infringement cases, courts “may increase the damages up to three times the amount found or assessed.”

[brucie5] 07/5/2019 09:17

Excellent news for VEC. Well done, Paul, I hope you do well here. I still hold on with a few, and will be watching to see how this impacts.

[qnq] 07/5/2019 09:16

probably, one need to also look at that the 89m cover the period from 2016-2018. vectura will most likely apply the 3% ruling all thru the patent expiry, that is mid 2021. that means another 112m$. as the jury found it as wilful infringement, vectura can ask for multiples of the fine (this depends on how much love is left there between vectura and partner GSK).

[pooroldboy55] 07/5/2019 09:04

I know I'm in France. But don't see the share price doing much as some people want out and this is there chance.

[base7] 07/5/2019 08:57

We are a thorn in the side of GSK currently-apart from winning the case we will soon be competing with both Advair & their ( our ) Ellipta range with our partnered generics

[diesel] 07/5/2019 08:42

I suspect GSK will not say anything until they have spoken with Vec, if Vec push too hard may just force GSK to appeal, however I'd be surprised if this was the limit of the damages

[polaris] 07/5/2019 08:24

On this type of news you expect a 15M+ volume day. Let's see what the news does for generating new holders. The share price initial rise of 10p is just the value of the damages. Nothing so far for royalties to 2021 and further damages possibilities. I suspect this is down to the likelihood of GSK appeal. Maybe things will really kick in post 9am.

[diesel] 07/5/2019 08:17

I wonder whether HBM will keep selling, if so may put a cap on the rise, there again may clear the overhang.

[richtea2517] 07/5/2019 08:07

Whoosh. Patient we have been.

[polaris] 07/5/2019 07:27

Official RNS out. Nothing from GSK...probably deemed too small to be of material importance. Let the games begin.

[richtea2517] 07/5/2019 07:14

Jog on big pharma

[base7] 06/5/2019 20:42

Hopefully the judgement will prove to be the turning point & perhaps we will hear positive news regarding the refiling of our Advair generic, together with more positive newsflow over the coming weeks.

[best1467] 06/5/2019 20:33

Polaris would appreciate your thoughts Vectura have said they will seek 3% royalties through to 2021 on elipta sales will that still be capped at the previous 9 million per year I may be wrong but I think you mentioned it may not be capped.