Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[base7] 24/5/2019 10:16

BTG has been good to me over the years but I still feel it is being sold too chealy

[justiceforthemany] 24/5/2019 09:59

The market sure has it favourites. With all that cash c. £180M following the GSK win we would have been at 150p+ if our name was BTG, Boohoo, SSPG or Abcam.

[justiceforthemany] 24/5/2019 09:57

Pathetic volume again. Lilley and Co. doing nothing to stop what they themselves admitted was manipulation of the share price to the downside. Not speaking to HBM either it seems.

[jimboyce] 24/5/2019 09:53

Getting past 80p is our first hurdle.

[base7] 24/5/2019 09:50

Like Polaris I have a large holding here ,acquired primarily via SKP, but I have added in the low 70s & ironically I am still in profit (due to my low average cost of SKP).Clearly Vec is extremely unloved,despite our growing revenues,cash pile & prospective new revenue streams.If our lowly share price is purely due to the HBM overhang we can resolve that immediately by offering them around 80p per share ,costing around £30mill ,which still leaves us with £80 mill + the substantial amounts due from GSK & the additional royalties until 2021.
Despite my large holding I am considering buying more shares as I cannot believe that our share price will recover at some point over the next few months to over 100p or more,apart from the possibility of someone acquiring us cheaply.
am I missing something here ?

[pooroldboy55] 24/5/2019 08:51

Another opportunity for HBM to sell some more!

[popper joe] 24/5/2019 08:37

Vectura have announced today that the $2.5m milestone payment for the European Regulatory submission for QVM149.has been triggered.

[base7] 24/5/2019 07:46

Our cash pile grows aided by £ weakness & I suspect that our revenue in £ terms is also increasing for the same reason so next weeks AGM trading update should be very positive 7 there may even be news about uses of of our excessive cash pile.
we now just need our share price to respond the the recent positives !!

[rogerrail] 23/5/2019 23:07

From the annual report:

Novartis expects the QVM149 Phase III study completion in H2 2019 with regulatory submission in Europe and Japan also in H2 2019, triggering a filing milestone to Vectura of $2.5m.
The Group will earn royalties on net sales upon launch of the
product. The product has the potential to be one of the first LAMA/LABA/ICS therapies for asthma. Current consensus estimates sales of $238m by 2024.

[polaris] 23/5/2019 09:54

Novartis exclusively licensed formulation technology from VEC for one of the APIs. Looking at previous occurrences of this, then you can expect a low single digit royalty rate on net sales, my guess 3%. As a royalty, it is 100% margin. VEC will also receive a milestone of $2.5M on either successful completion of ph III or submission of the results to FDA for approval (can't remember which).

No RNS necessary as these are just presentations of the results from phase II studies at pharma conferences. However, someone has picked it up and published a few articles. As stated in one of the articles, the phase III readout is expected in 2019. A little digging shows the initial completion date to be end of June, although these do normally slip, as down to speed of enrollment cf. start date of February 2018. The full trial will be about 18 months.

If the headline phase III results are good, you can bet Novartis will make a big deal about it. VEC might only announce when they receive the next milestone.

[pooroldboy55] 23/5/2019 08:31

Can't be that inportent no RNS from VEC!!!.

[alexchry] 23/5/2019 08:23

Polaris, do you know what VEC will get out of it?

[polaris] 22/5/2019 17:18

further story on QVM149, with indications that Phase III results scheduled for H2 2019.



It is also listed as 1 of 14 potential blockbusters for Novartis going forward. With no delays then the launch is expected in 2020.

[fhmktg] 22/5/2019 07:37

Thanks Taffy.The start of this year's newsflow and good for Breezehaler.Now...where is the submission report from Hikma on the Advair project.

[taffy100] 22/5/2019 07:21

Novartis phase II data for new inhaled combination treatment (QVM149) demonstrates significant improvements over current standard-of-care inhaled treatment

[diesel] 21/5/2019 14:38

It doesn't say much for the business model if they cannot find a use for so much cash, invest in skills, technology and growing the business, or find a suitable acquisition to enhance the product offerings, buy back stock while at a depressed level, something for goodness sake.....

[base7] 21/5/2019 13:18

My view for some time has been that we should offer to buy the HBM shares which are surplus to their requirements & either hold them in Treasury or cancel them.It would immediately remove the overhang & currently would be at a very good price - assuming that our share price will,eventually rise....one day soon.Strange in some respects that HBM continue to sell but if they no longer wish to be invested in Vec they will just want out at any cost.Hopefully the positive theme will be continued in the AGM trading update next week.

[pooroldboy55] 21/5/2019 12:59

Not seen any but haven't looked, but if that is the case we are HBM Selling now? .
P's at last some decent weather here in S FRANCE

[chrisdgb] 21/5/2019 12:36

Interesting to see a lot of broker comments about Vectura being a stand out takeover candidate in light of the court news......

[pooroldboy55] 21/5/2019 12:18

As you say who ? But never a RNS.

[jimboyce] 21/5/2019 12:02

Yes I meant 1% per month recently, but on average 2.5 m per month since beginning of year. As you ask, who is soaking these up.?

[polaris] 21/5/2019 11:49

It's more than 1M per month. Three RNS this year

7th Jan 46.25M from previous holding of 52.6M
18th April 39.81M
21st May 33.1M

HBM have sold a minimum of 13M shares this year to date and up to 19.5M, depending on when the sales started between holding announcements. Usual volume is in the 4-600K range...that is a huge volume to soak up given the average!

[jimboyce] 21/5/2019 11:41

Yes it looks like they have made a decision to sell, it is to be executed come what may (with or without the billion dollar find).

[polaris] 21/5/2019 11:41

HBM have made their decision to pare down and not a lot the average shareholder can do about it. However, as a major declared shareholder, it is in the interests of the company and management to enter into discussions with the shareholder on their intentions wrt remaining holding. It is clear to all that the majority of the cash pile is not required for operations - in fact the company have stated as much at the FY results. I see no reason why they cannot negotiate a mutually advantageous agreement with HBM on any further holding they wish to sell. Without the constant selling pressure then the buy/sell matching point would be significantly higher. On a relatively thinly traded stock, a persistent seller with several % of the shares in a company can be a real drag. This can be achieved indirectly by application for another buyback mandate.

If GSK do not appeal the US litigation (or lose any appeal) then the current cash pile is closer to £180M and rising. That is close to a third of the current market cap! That is before any punitive damages or imposition of a royatly rate on US sales to end of patent life in mid-2021. Then there is the appeal on the arrow judgement in the UK. A few million in legal fees is nothing for the possible return.

In the background, VEC continue to make progress with their on market products (see recent Kyorin results and forecasts) and pipeline. At some point, it would make sense for someone to take VEC out based on the cash pile, depressed SP, product value and pipeline possibilities. Any significant movement on the ellipta developments will be value enhancing.

AGM on the 29th...maybe there might be a vote there on a buyback mandate. At the very least they can make some kind of statement on the trading activities re H1 expectations.

regards,

Paul

[rogerrail] 21/5/2019 11:40

HBM disposing of 1%per month, so 5 months of selling left. I would think if GSK pay up in that time period that will give HBM the opportunity to offload the remainder.