Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[cityfarmer] 02/3/2018 10:07

Isn’t there still a potential juicy milestone payment due from Pacira? I seem to recall it being £30M+ but no idea it sales are likely to trigger that threshold? I often wonder what life as a SKP holder would have been like if we had held onto Exparel and got US approval for Fluti – I may have even held onto my hair :-)

[polaris] 02/3/2018 09:54

If you like the post then please give me PlusOneCoin...click that button! :-D

One day i might have enough to be able to buy a doughnut or something! ;-)

[polaris] 02/3/2018 09:40

Don't forget some of the same management sold off the then depodur technology, which became a $bn US company...Pacira (not that it makes any profit but the US is a bit mental). I suppose SKP/VEC at least get royalties from that, for now.

[polaris] 02/3/2018 09:37

Sorry dunderheed, but i can't help but read your post in my head in sarcasm mode. As if you meant that! ;-)

Due to the snow, i'm at home today. No doubt that will mean quite a few posts as i get progressively more bored with watching white stuff fall out of the sky.

[alexchry] 02/3/2018 09:36

The same management that has kicked early stage developments into touch, will only pursue late stage developments with partners as they'd rather use their cash to buy their own shares and are now sitting on their hands hoping for good news on Advair and that flutiform sales hold up.

[dunderheed] 02/3/2018 08:45

Ah yes, the same mgt of this company who have delivered so much so far with regard to risk profile of assets and share price pfmce. I see your point.
Thanks for clarification.

[muffster] 02/3/2018 08:38

That if he had confidence it spurs me on to add more

[muffster] 02/3/2018 08:37

Polaris, that is the best post I've ever read on advfn.

[muffster] 02/3/2018 08:29

Remember. The chairman bought in at 98p in 2017

[richman777114] 01/3/2018 14:16

I think at this valuation a bidder could take the view that Advair generic failure and litigation failure is pretty much priced inEnterprise value £370m=circa 9 times adjusted EBITDA

[dontay] 01/3/2018 14:12

Under disclosure rules if there is any known hostile (or otherwise) bid activity, then closed period or no closed period, the market has to be told immediately the BOD are made aware of it. IMO this is purely market forces in action and shorts asking advantage of the uncertainty surrounding the generic and litigation issues. No doubt there is some market manipulation going on but conspiracy theories are probably wide of the mark for the simple reason that no- one can predict if the complaints resolution committee will or not decide in VEC's favour of the generic issue... and no-one can predict what the outcome of the litigation issues will be and if or not another at least £100 million in 'backdated' will be added onto VEC's bottom line! How can anyone make a bid approach when they will have no idea what the EV of VEC will be worth at the end of this year?

[pooroldboy55] 01/3/2018 14:06

Thanks for that Paul but as you say we are just the little people in the dark
Regards Andrew

[richman777114] 01/3/2018 13:45

Polaris,Fascinating stuffAs you say whatever is going on here short term the stock is way undervaluedRegards,Jonathan

[polaris] 01/3/2018 13:31

Well, the selling pressure does seem to increase when the US is about to open. So some kind of hostile action from a US-based entity is possible. However, many of the hedgies are over there as well and they go into a feeding frenzy when the conditions are right. The number of smallish AT trades suggests an algo at work, with icebergs on each side of the book that can be easily removed. I've seen this sort of control in relatively low volume stocks in the past. Seeing one side of the order book suddenly removed shows the level of control that can be reached.

I don't buy theory b as i do not see how it can work in simple terms. Short sellers need to buy (to match their short sell) and so there need to be orders on the sell side of the book for them to buy. How do you hold down the price without selling more shares? The market is a supply/demand driven base with sentiment driven trading bolted onto it.

In a normal market, the price will move towards the equilibrium of buy/sell via the automated order book (AT trades), which by their very nature are matched buy/sell and so i never understand why they are listed as 'buy' or 'sell' by various websites, including this one. O trades are off order book transfers and are, effectively, not price driving where the order book is automated. The same is true for a lot of the other order types. The broker will hoover up the required number of shares via AT trades, and then transfer the block to the requester at the agreed price (given price, volume weighted, etc).

Sentiment is the biggest unknown as that is the way that you engineer new volume. Walking a price up or down can bring capitulation selling at given market points, pick up stops for traders (had this happen to me many times in my early days), or to drive new buying volume. It works both ways. However, you need to control the order book and that is very hard in high volume stocks. If you get it right, then you can basically own the buy and sell side of the order book and move the price accordingly, almost at will. It is highly suspect in terms of legality, but that doesn't stop it from occurring. Bot trading is the usual form of this, churning volume for minimal gains but, eventually, takes over the normal market. You then walk the price in whichever direction suits your position. A lot of the 'actual' trading will be done via options, CFDs etc and they are not necessarily covered by the provider by real trades in the market. If you control the order book then you can walk the price to where you need it to be to profit from the option or CFD.

A recent example of the power of this type of trading is in bitcoin, where a lot of the CFD/spreadbet companies took significant hits before Christmas, as they did not match their client trades in the real market and got caught out heavily as the action was all on the buyside. When positions were closed then the profit came from the CFD/spreadbet company, not via real trades in the market.

It's a minefield out there, much more so with the number of algo trading bots out there. They work as voting machines, going short term. I tend to look at companies and try to understand them inside and out so i can spot medium to long term value and act accordingly. In theory, medium to long term then the market is a weighing machine, so value will out!

I've learned to set no, or very wide, stops with buy/sell points based on revenue scenarios. That way you tend to avoid the short term swings. However, i will jump in when i see apparent market stupidity on known information. This strikes me as one of those, but then i could be wrong. That is the game you have to play.

regards,

Paul

[richman777114] 01/3/2018 13:18

Polaris,IndeedSo far 70p showing solid supportRegards,Jonathan

[polaris] 01/3/2018 13:08

Who knows, they may do exactly that at the FY results. They do have a cash pile and they are not eaxctly doing much else with it. They should probably look for bolt-on IP for the new strategy, but that is very hit and miss. What they really need is to make a wide ranging statement at the FY results on fleshing out the proposed strategy, what this means for some product lines and to realign market expectations. The current position, where everyone is in the dark due to the trading statment and closed period, is ideal for the hedge fund traders to run amok!

[richman777114] 01/3/2018 13:07

Polaris,Theory a:price being held down pending agreed takeover by US pharma at say £1 (so 35-40% premium)Theory b: price being held down to help shorters close out (they had a great entry point thanks to the telegraph takeover rumours)What say you?Regards,Jonathan

[popper joe] 01/3/2018 13:00

If the directors thought it was a good idea to initiate a £15m buy back when the shares were at 90p, why wouldn't they repeat the exercise when the shares are at 70p? Just asking?

[pooroldboy55] 01/3/2018 12:57

Hi polaris
Interesting times! !

[polaris] 01/3/2018 12:48

Well i got 2 of the three limit orders filled this morning. Just not the one at 70.5. I'll be keeping an eye on the share price post buyback completion announcement to see what the volume looks like and the order book. Things should become somewhat clearer now that we do not have the buyback to soak up sells. In theory, we should see a price fall if selling pressure remains constant, until a new equilibrium is reached. If thiss a false market, then it is anyone's guess what might happen now!

[popper joe] 01/3/2018 12:29

Great! Should we consider it a success?

[dontay] 01/3/2018 12:00

Well that's the buy back officially completed so gonna be interesting to see what the next move is.