Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[a1ord53] 23/2/2018 14:58

Dontay , how you mentioned short sellers now 3.55% - its 25-30 mil shares . They obviously betting that Vec will go out of business. But to buy 20-30 mil shares to cover shorts is not very easy .
If majors not selling , means they feel confident and may start to buy at current level and could squeeze shorts.
In my opinion share price will bounce and run up to 1-1.2 £ area and sit there until will clear litigations outcome and Advair .

[pooroldboy55] 23/2/2018 14:38

Just had a look at share price from a very wet nd cold south of France not looking good will stick with my buy more when we get to 66p.
Cheers POB
Me being on holiday hasn't helped sp! !!!!!

[alexchry] 22/2/2018 08:03

Ultibro® Breezhaler® provided significant improvements in cardiac and lung function in COPD patients with lung hyperinflation, compared to placebo. Novartis press release regarding publication in Lancet, at least a bit of good publicity.

[dontay] 21/2/2018 22:54

Looks like we have a 'new' shorter on board... Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Shorts total now standing at 3.55% according to ShortTracker. It's going to be an interesting merry month of March ahead of results day!

[a1ord53] 21/2/2018 22:20

Vectura (VEC LN)
Buyback of £15m could lead to c.2-3% EPS accretion in 2018 and beyond
Disseminated 14 Nov 2017 08:41 AM GMT
14 November 2017
Overweight Price: 90p 13 Nov 2017
This morning Vectura announced plans for a buyback of up to a maximum consideration of £15m. The buyback programme commenced on 13th November 2017 and should be completed by 11th May 2018 and the shares repurchased will be cancelled. We see this as a slight positive as it displays Vectura management’s disciplined approach to capital management while also highlighting that at current levels they believe the shares are undervalued. We believe this buyback is opportunistic given the strong cash balance and current depressed share price, and will not affect Vectura’s ability to invest in its proprietary pipeline to drive future growth. As a sensitivity analysis, the buyback programme could lead to c.2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards, although is neutral on an NPV basis. As a reminder our NPV analysis values Vectura at 177p, or 107p ex the pipeline offering c.95% and 19% upside respectively.
 Buyback sensitivity suggests 2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards. At current levels (90p), a £15m buyback could result in the repurchase of 16.67m shares. Assuming the buyback is spread equally across the buyback period (13th November 2017 to 11th May 2018) suggests 2018 weighted average shares of 664.8m (currently 679.3m) leading to 2.2% EPS accretion in 2018. With Average shares of 662.7m in 2019 and beyond, our sensitivity suggests 2.5% Core EPS accretion. Our EmV is largely unchanged as the cash outflow of £15m largely offsets the lower share count.
Table 1: Vectura Buyback Sensitivity analysis
Current 679,344
Sensitivity 678,773
679,344
664,833
679,344
662,677
-2.5% -16,667
7.8
8.0
2.5% 0.2
191.1
176.1
-7.9% -15.0
679,344 679,344
662,677 662,677
-2.5% -2.5% -16,667 -16,667
5.9 8.4
6.0 8.6
2.5% 2.5% 0.1 0.2
218.7 280.6
203.7 265.6
-6.9% -5.3% -15.0 -15.0




2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 18-21 CAGR




Share Count (weighted average share number)
% Difference -0.1% -2.1% Absolute Difference -570 -14,511
Core EPS (p)
Current 2.0
New 2.0
% Difference 0.1% Absolute Difference 0.0 Cash (£m)
Current 112.0 Sensitivity 107.9
3.9
4.0
2.2% 0.1
146.8
131.8
29.3%
29.4%
24.1% 26.3%
% Difference
Absolute Difference
EmV (p)
Current 177 Sensitivity 178 % Difference 0.7% Absolute Difference 1.3
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates

[a1ord53] 21/2/2018 16:33

Triiple flop-bottom line of this management :

1 Merger is flop
2 Advair developement is flop
3 Buy back is flop ( looks like favor to sellers )

Vectura has a good products and good pipe line , but management erased shareholders value due to their incompetence and missmanaged all so long time created value!!!

They should go! Major shareholders should do what Hikma did :fired their Ceo and hired Ceo from Teva .

[muffster] 21/2/2018 10:38

Yep chart looks downwards

[polaris] 21/2/2018 09:50

Looks like we are back to weakness in the price after the recent intraday visit above 82. Looks like i might be adding to my position in the low 70s if we get there again. On the general side, most of my pharmas are red this morning so there is some sector-wide negative feeling.

[polaris] 21/2/2018 09:47

I don't see how they can sue the company for this. It is the remit of the FDA to approve generics. If they delayed the approvals then it is their problem. Once a product is approved then the company is under no compulsion to launch. However, if the incumbent paid off a generic company not to launch then that would be another matter...

[colsmith] 21/2/2018 09:42

Interesting way things operate?


"The FTC is seeking a judge's order that AbbVie pay $1.32 billion to consumers as compensation for the delay in generic versions of AndroGel. AndroGel's annual U.S. sales topped $1 billion earlier this decade, but have declined since generics hit the market in December 2014.

The case comes as many in government call for greater curbs on U.S. drug spending, including President Donald Trump, who released proposals this month aimed at cutting prescription costs in the federal Medicare and Medicaid programs. The FTC has said delays in the introduction of generic drugs keep spending high by depriving customers of lower-cost alternatives"

[polaris] 20/2/2018 09:56

Notice how quiet things have become as the price recovers from the recent low. I will wait for the results before deciding what to do with my trading holding, as I still feel the price is significantly depressed cf. where it should be with known news on trading. At the results the board need to show a presentation outlining how they plan to realise the reshaping of the VEC IP with many partners. They will now live and die by their actions. Regards,Paul

[fhmktg] 20/2/2018 08:53

New ceo appointed at Hikma from Teva.Will eventually reside in London.Should bring some fresh focus to Hikma and their dealings both with partners such as VEC and the fda.

[best1467] 16/2/2018 19:04

Slight negative news today Pacira has been refused label extension by theFDA today it was thought to be forgone that it would be granted just goes to show how diffult the FDA are to deal with or corrupt

[dontay] 16/2/2018 16:54

Hi boadicea, yep another refusal will undoubtedly see sentiment cause further falls for a while. I do think this share price has been in a rather false 'environment' it's SO difficult/impossible... to know what the share price level would have been/or be... if there hadn't been a large dumping of the shares at the same time as VEC entering the market and thereby virtually guaranteeing to hoover up quite a large portion of them! But now that the buy and cancel scheme is coming up for completion... a more level and 'natural' playing field will develop... it is IMO going to be VERY interesting to see what happens to the share price from here on in, presuming there will be no 'new' news from the FDA till the end of March! If the recent dumping also stops at the same time as the buy back is completed then a more favourable environment might develop even before any new announcement from the FDA... but if the dumping continues, further falls might now happen anyway! Interesting times!

[boadicea] 16/2/2018 16:13

Dontay - Another refusal is probably (more than?) priced in as you say, together with an assumption that the GSK patent battle will be lost, but that won't prevent further selling pressure when/if either of them crystallizes. This is because not everyone would appreciate that they were already in the price. On this basis there is no knowing how cheap a bargain VEC could become before recovery or takeover.

[dontay] 16/2/2018 13:23

I wouldn't think any broker would want to get caught out with a sell recommendation in situ when/if/or the FDA come up trumps! They would look even more stupid than we know they are! Peel Hunt are probably retaining hold for that reason... but also covering their backside with a lowered 120p target just in case the the FDA DON'T come up trumps and the share price goes in the downward direction away from their prior 160p target! IF?.. the FDA come up trumps then 120p will be met and 160p will quite likely become the new target and Peel Hunt won't end up looking even more stupid than perceptions! IMO... apart from short term market sentiment in the event of another FDA refusal... the refusal is already pretty much priced in... and in the longer term with the uncertainty being removed it could quite possibly settle things down and get the share price back up to a fair value 100-120p until next December looms into sight.

[justiceforthemany] 16/2/2018 11:28

ectura Group (OTCMKTS:VEGPF) was upgraded by Zacks Investment Research from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating

[alexchry] 16/2/2018 07:19

Excellent post polaris, I can't argue with any of your logic regarding a takeover although rumours are still swirling around. At the moment I am more interested in the FDA timing update and the two partners Vec are looking for, we need some solid good news rather than takeover speculation which may have no substance.

[polaris] 15/2/2018 20:49

a1ord53 - if you have access to the Peel Hunt notes then why don't you tell us what the differences are? You could also ask Peel Hunt directly. Why is it my, or any other poster on this board, job to do it for you and then inform you of the result? This board is to share views and research, not to place an order for information and then sit back and wait.

regards,

Paul

[justiceforthemany] 15/2/2018 18:59

a1ord - brokers are clueless and just follow the share price down or up. They know nothing more than you or I and that is why their 'recommendations' are often hopelessly wrong. Studies showed that for the past few years you would have been actually better off buying their FTSE 250 sell recommendations over their buy recommendations!
Says everything.
Shire, ITV, BT, National Grid, GSK are all great examples.

[justiceforthemany] 15/2/2018 18:43

Anything even in the 120p/£800M range would be accepted IMO

[justiceforthemany] 15/2/2018 18:42

His points are certainly valid. No debt, cash rich +£104M at year end. Book price closer to 100p. What has changed since this was trading at 160p last year? Nothing. Current drop totally unjustified. Strong Respiratory inhaler portfolio. Advair + others will be approved at some point - matter of when not if. He is also right anything around £1Bn is pocket change for the giants like GSK, Bristol-Myers, Pfizer etc. share price not reacting though and as we all know the city boys usually hear things first aka. insider dealing.

[a1ord53] 15/2/2018 18:21

I wrote here already about Peel Hunt notes , but until now no views or explanations from you guys.
On 1st of February Peel Hunt reafirmed Hold recommendation for Vectura with target price 160 p
and yesterday Peel Hunt reafirmed Hold and cut target price down to 120 p.. What happened between 1 st of February and 14 th of February that target price lost 25 % ???
Thanks a lot in advance for sharing your views and thoughts.

[dontay] 15/2/2018 17:35

Wow, it actually managed stay in the blue today! (Just!)So a wee bit more speculation just to keep things nicely ticking over! https://zakmir.com/2018/02/14/vectura-attracting-bid-interest-from-gsks-competitors/Vectura Attracting Bid Interest From GSK's CompetitorsBesides GlaxoSmithkline (LON:GSK) becoming more keen at this level, around 78p, the weak share price has attracted more M&A interest for Vectura (LON:VEC).Previously it appeared 200p a share would be required to take over Vectura against competition from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Bristol Meyers (NYSE:BMY). On the smaller side Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) may want to gatecrash the party.The fundamental buy argument here which the potential bidders are backing is the way that Vectura is cash rich, debt free, and with potential consisting of the group's technology and drugs pipeline.The strategic interest for GSK's competitors is that they would not wish the UK giant to get a sector edge over them via Vectura.Given that this is relatively small company around £500m – even a 100% premium is only pocket change for one of the multinationals. The implication is that £1.50 may now be the price than is too good an offer for Vectura shareholders to resist.