Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[a1ord53] 07/2/2018 17:30

GSK results


hxxp://www.gsk.com/media/4629/fy-2017-results-announcement.pdf

[diesel] 07/2/2018 16:55

POB, have you been hitting the bottle, wouldn't blame you....

[pooroldboy55] 07/2/2018 16:32

Another very a day this is not normal trading surely it must warent a RNS

[diesel] 07/2/2018 16:29

This might be a sell off, but who's selling, no notifiable interest changing!
I tend to agree that management have to take some responsibility here, this has become a target for those that can sense weakness, a string of negative RNS was probably the trigger last year, but unless we see something positive then this could drift lower.

[alexchry] 07/2/2018 15:46

pob55-I hope you are wrong but Hikma share price down by over 50% since initial bad news re Advair last May, if similar happened to VEC the share price would be in the 60s. I hope the bad news is all in the price but I wouldn't bet on it. Like many others, I'm sure, I wish I'd unloaded when the bad news first hit and the share price dropped to low 130s. Since then I've kept thinking it can't get any worse but it has! Of course, it may be different in a year's time, partners found, case won, Advair approved and fairies at the bottom of the garden!

[pooroldboy55] 07/2/2018 15:23

So how low is this going to go my guess at this rate 66p

[alexchry] 07/2/2018 15:17

Anything concerned with the Advair generic would be announced by Hikma immediately followed by VEC. Apart from unlikely good news re Advair, I can't see much to get excited about this year. It will be interesting to see if the directors buy when the results are announced.

[polaris] 07/2/2018 15:10

That would be price senstive and must be announced, according to the LSE rules.

[pooroldboy55] 07/2/2018 14:54

So if they know its not good news from the US they should let us know ,somebody knows something and its not us !! would that not be price sensitive?

[a1ord53] 07/2/2018 14:27

Vec being trading like company going to be bancrupt - looks like company has no products, no pipelines , no income , no cash and fair value is Zero .

[polaris] 07/2/2018 14:11

What do you want the BoD to say?

They are likely in closed period before the results and so cannot make a comment unless some price sensitive news comes along, which they must anounce. That gives a short term (of the order of 4-6 weeks) window where they are really at the mercy of the traders.

The last comment from the company was that results are broadly in-line with expectations. There is obviously nothing new on the FDA talks via Hikma. All we know is that they expect another statement in Q1 2018, after discussion with FDA. I think it is already clear that there will be a divergence of opinion and the analysts for Hikma are already assuming further clinical trials, so no approval before 2019. The US market for Advair is currently worth 1.6Bn GBP p.a. to GSK (from results this lunchtime),but is steadily falling as GSK moves patients over to newer products. Sales are down 10% YoY in the US. Generic entry will reduce market size considerbly, due to pricing pressures.

In general, the statement by VEC board that they are going to concentrate on leveraging their delivery technology (like generic Advair and the IP for the Ellipta series) rather than developing new drugs through the whole process (like Flutiform) is a better strategy in the long term. It is higher volume, lower royalty work but with a faster turnaround. It is also high margin, close to 100% on a 3-4% sales royalty. Supply chain might get you 15% of net sales but with a margin of 20%, so still only equivalent to IP rights with 3% royalty at 100% margin. It also reduces the R&D spend considerably, which takes time to recoup from eventual sales. If you are part of the supply, marketing and manufacturing chain then you also have the larger overheads from staff and getting market penetration. IP deals leave all the donkey work to the large pharma, who have the scale to leverage maximum sales and so optimal returns for the IP company.

It's all about margin and not about revenues when calculating earnings and forward valuations.

regards,

Paul

[dasw] 07/2/2018 13:29

Ward Lilley needs to go .... totally ineffective.

[pooroldboy55] 07/2/2018 13:29

Well have 18 companies on my monitor and only one is red VEC. Yes a 5 year low and not one word from the B.O.D.

[pooroldboy55] 07/2/2018 10:06

So whats the betting we end up in the red today, what i cant understand nothing from the BOD re recent share price movement but then again i don't understand much about anything !!!!!!!!!!!

[hashertu] 06/2/2018 14:30

I know that it is long after the event, but can anyone explain the holding RNS of 22 Jan.
No of voting rights, 2.5million.
Percentage of voting rights, 8.8%

Doesn't equate in my mind. What am I missing?

[pooroldboy55] 06/2/2018 14:19

Yes will give you that.

[0815exitstrategy] 06/2/2018 14:02

but VEC performed better than Dow Jones. ;-)

[pooroldboy55] 06/2/2018 13:57

I see most shares down about 2.5% good old VEC down almost 4% !

[dp1umb] 06/2/2018 13:50

Topped up this morning so most probably be trashed!

[pooroldboy55] 06/2/2018 13:49

Got to stop somewhere but where every one red today, but vec still leading the down pack 6 days in a row in the red lost 37 p since high in January thats going some!

[0815exitstrategy] 06/2/2018 13:39

questions is: will be VEC trashed completely or will it stop at some point?