Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[popper joe] 31/1/2018 21:31

Well from a price of £1.60 just prior to the FDA rejection, I would have said that it has already been substantially marked down. How much more than half of the value of the company can generic advair really be worth?

[dontay] 31/1/2018 17:16

MY understanding is that HIKMA are disputing and appealing against one of the points raised in the the FDA rejection and its not the usual matter of somehow working to improve the product to meet their requirements. To me that could signify that they cannot improve the product. If the appeal fails, then where do you go from there? Probably nowhere! That, IMO is the sentiment behind why a major shareholder is bailing out. The risk is all on the downside. In the event the appeal is lost then market sentiment will mark the share price substantially down from present levels IMO.

[a1ord53] 31/1/2018 16:36

Vec is a victim of major shareholders and shortsellers.
They both destroying shareholders value .
Motives of major shareholders are not clear - they sell now and buy later ? or just getting rid of Vectura and incouraging short sellers to kill share price
Skp was hell and Vec is double hell.

[polaris] 31/1/2018 16:22

The longer without resolution For Hikma/VEC with the FDA the more likely a door opens for Sandoz on generic Advair. I am surprised that the FDA have not said anything regarding this submission as yet (it was filed in June last year).

GSK must be happy as they are getting extra value from sales. They release results on the 9th feb, i think, and the annual revenues should be around 3Bn GBP, c.f. the expected 1Bn GBP if generic competition arrived in H2 2017.

The silence from the FDA suggest that proving equivalence is an issue for all generics.

[pooroldboy55] 31/1/2018 15:20

Well i was right about getting a hammering does seem nothing to stop this going into the 80s

[ianood] 31/1/2018 12:06

best1467 - agreed providing we don't get down to option money!!

[best1467] 31/1/2018 11:46

Skypharma was an hell of a rollercoaster ride over many years didn't expect this to be heading the same way.
Will give it the rest of the year and then take a decision as to in or out.

[alexchry] 31/1/2018 11:36

Both Hikma and Vec have dropped nearly 20% since the start of the year which suggests the market is expecting bad news regarding generic Advair and the FDA. How much bad news is already in the price is the big unknown.

[pooroldboy55] 30/1/2018 15:47

Just a bit , someone wants out at any price !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Suppose its good for the buy back.

[fhmktg] 30/1/2018 15:40

Bit of a hammering today!

[pooroldboy55] 30/1/2018 08:58

Can someone explain why the 35000 buy at 109 at 8-49am showed up on vec page but not in the list on the trades page it was shown as an o trade? Is this week going to be like last week good Monday then get hammered ?.

[alex2727] 29/1/2018 12:45

alexchry . . . on the contrary, the point the CEO made was that it had required relatively little legal work to prepare the case because, in their eyes, the facts spoke clearly for themselves. The last I understood was that GSK hadn't yet put in a defence which, I believe, if so, would also speak for itself.

Alex

[alexchry] 29/1/2018 11:59

best1467-during a recent webcast they said that the potential reward was worth the relatively small investment in litigation so it didn't sound as though they were particularly confident of being successful.

[rathean] 29/1/2018 11:04

We've a new trading range and I don't see us doing anything but the sideways shuffle until the next non share buy back RNS.Currently at fair value imo, consolidation in the industry is gathering pace Stateside, UK pharma very cheap by comparison. One to stick under your pillow for now, although when it shoots north it'll move very quickly.

[best1467] 26/1/2018 16:06

Does anyone have a strong opinion of the likley outcome of the GSK LITIGATION

[cumnor] 26/1/2018 15:14

I think HBM are probably offloading on any rise ((or ? someone shorting for a sneaky bid). All too predictable a pattern of late. I wont add for a good while-company fundamentals solid imo and respiratory IP very valuable to a growing pharma with big ambitions-if not GSK. Happy to see them go to 80s-90s rather than facilitate the seller who seems intent on getting out, or shorting. Let them sweat it and I intend to buy more once share price falls to 85-90p as it looks like Telegraph story was another plant to get share price up so seller could capitalise on it. Anyone buying now is probably facilitation HMB or who but I certainly wont be. Also feel company should put buy back on hold for now and wait till share price drops so we can at least cancel more shares for our money, unless mgmt are aware of who is dumping or shorting. imo

[pooroldboy55] 26/1/2018 14:38

Looks like we are going back to the old trend up AM down PM

[gazmeistergeneral] 26/1/2018 11:21

Still long for me...not a bad place to add in the 98/100 zone... look at weekly chart... bottom looks in for now on nice technical setup where price made LL on 10th nov the went on run taking out recent high around 108.80 (Bloomberg source) on good buying volume which saw the obv indicator also go up in lockstep with price. Stop below 10th nov low. Not unreasonable to expect price to touch top of current down channel

[a1ord53] 26/1/2018 10:43

Fund % short change Date changed

1.Macquarie Funds Management Hong Kong Limited 0.50% 0.01% 19 Jan 2018

2.JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 0.75% 0.07% 15 Dec 2017

3.GSA Capital Partners LLP 0.89% -0.01% 23 Jan 2018


4.Alpert Global LLC 0.50% 0.0% 18 Jan 2018

! Total shorts 2.64%

[polaris] 25/1/2018 21:05

The reason GSK are testing the IP rights of VEC is that it could be useful in the future if certain patents are deemed invalid. As i mentioned earlier, fighting a "lost" battle is not such a bad thing for tier I pharma v a small pharma. It sharpens the minds of the legal team and may be more than worth any settlement in long-term returns from other litigation. You need to keep your best minds busy and get them to look for holes in seemingly watertight IP!

[polaris] 25/1/2018 21:01

I say again, why would GSK have any interest in VEC? The value of VEC lies in the delivery technology that is leveraged with many partners, across the board. If GSK took them out then what are they actually gaining in terms of "value"? Flutiform is a direct competitor in Europe and RoW, the non-respiratory assets are all but useless to GSK. What is the value of Flutiform to Mundipharma to buy it out?

The litigation between GSK and VEC is slated for hearing at the end of 2018 and GSK have a large legal team. Even if they lose then VEC are looking at a royalty on certain sales of 1-2% on top of the up to 9M GBP p.a. on the same line for the SKP IP. The backdated royalties, if they win, will be of the order of 15-30M GBP, as the Ellipta series was only launched in 2015. It may reap total sales of 1Bn+ GBP in 2017, but i am not sure whether all Ellipta series products contain VEC IP and you need to look at actual sales in previous years to guestimate possible returns. Low single digit means less than 3%, likely 1-2%, so where the 5% quoted earlier comes from is pure fantasy.

The VEC strategy has value going forward, i am convinced of that. It may well be a takeover target for someone, but my list would start with the likes of Teva, Sandoz, Actavis, Mylan and Sun - the top 5 generics companies in sales - rather than any tier I pharma.

The telegraph story was awful, in terms of poorly researched content, and stretching reality. The story was then recycled elsewhere with even more BS - i seem to remember something about debt - VEC doesn't have any!

Something is going on right now, the churn and wildly varying stock price reflect this, but i don't see a believable TO story at the moment.

regards,

Paul

[asmith6893] 25/1/2018 20:59

I think it may be a dirty trick diesel, why would a company like gsk do the patent infringement in the first place?, you would think a company like them would play by the rules, but are vectura a big enough fish for them to even care about and try dirty tactics with? I guess only time will tell. If there is any truth in the rumours and that's a big if, surely other companies in agreements with vectura wouldn't want that to happen as it puts their products at risk?? Thoughts??

[diesel] 25/1/2018 19:48

So hard to read, a few thoughts...
If you wanted to offload a large number of shares then the time to do it is when there is a large buyer willing to pick them up and stop the price collapsing, eg a buyback.
If GSK have been interested in Vec for some time, then a patent infringement and litigation that unsettles confidence and sp, may be a strategy, dirty tricks?

[jimboyce] 25/1/2018 19:22

Well it's true that there is no law to prevent you selling or buying at above or below true value. But how do you value 'true value'.

[asmith6893] 25/1/2018 18:19

I’ve been sitting back from this board for a while and monitoring the companies progress. I don’t buy the suggestion of the telegraphs so called paid article. I believe Vectura is a siting duck for a takeover. Something is holding the price back, is HBM selling some of their holdings as part of a takeover? They are one of the biggest holders and it could all be planned, any thoughts?