Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[s1zematters] 15/1/2018 14:29

The paradox here is that there is both a persistent AT buyer and a very large AT seller in the market,hence it always gives back its day gains and usually ends below bid in the close auction as seller is prepared to take less for volume.
One of the larger holders must be filling all these buys since late December, as volume has been above average. One block alone of 7.8 million was bought for 125p back a few weeks back
The only problem with that is;- if a takeover was on the cards, surely large holders would have been asked for conditional acceptances, and would be trade barred?
If that logic is right, then it may not be a takeover but news on US front!
Very strange how the news about the 175 takeover was completely snubbed, even if it was baloney you would have expected a rally of some sort on that Telegraph news.

[aceuk] 15/1/2018 11:53

Can't see why GSK would even consider buying Vectura, they killed SkyePharma and are doing the same to the combined entity?

[dunderheed] 15/1/2018 11:36

Good post Alex. Best of luck all.

[alexchry] 15/1/2018 11:25

diesel-as we are expecting news regarding Advair, it is difficult to know whether the share price rise is simply due to the expectation of good news or whether it is due to a takeover bid in the offing. However, if there were substance to the rumoured 175p bid by GSK, I would expect the share price to be much higher.

[diesel] 15/1/2018 10:50

If there is a bid coming that would suggest that the Advair generic stands a good chance of approval.

[alexchry] 15/1/2018 08:52

volsung-does seem that way, volume very high on Friday. DT had Novartis rumours mid December and this month DT suggesting that GSK are preparing a bid. Hard to know whether the rumours are based on information or simply guesswork that the low share price might attract predators.

[volsung] 15/1/2018 08:30

Summat happening here. Bought a few more

[jopper74] 12/1/2018 11:31

I'm sure we would also see some large buy coming through too.......although VEC share price is ripe for a take over!

[alexchry] 12/1/2018 10:49

a1ord53-my thoughts exactly. If there were any substance at all to the rumours, the share price would not be down below 120 so must be fake news!

[a1ord53] 12/1/2018 10:41

This is paid article in The Telegraph in my opinion.
If were real talks and negotiations , share price would move much higher towards 150-160 p.
It would be miracle that GSK will buy VEC @175 p or higer !
But sometimes miracles happening :)

[taffy100] 11/1/2018 22:41

Market report: Takeover chatter swirls around inhaler maker Vectura
The Telegraph
Tom Rees
,The Telegraph•11 January 2018

[alexchry] 11/1/2018 22:05

0815exitstrategy-nothing new, just repeated that Advair, Utibron and Flutiform were disappointments (headwinds) last year so revising strategy to play safe and spend less on R&D. A number of projects dropped and they are seeking partners for a couple. Good news on Advair is needed, doesn't seem much else of significance on the short term horizon.

[0815exitstrategy] 11/1/2018 15:38

Does anyone know what VEC has presented at J.P.Morgan?

[0815exitstrategy] 10/1/2018 19:17

Good analysis and reflects also my view on things.

[polaris] 10/1/2018 18:40

re:generic Advair. The one to watch is the Sandoz ANDA with the FDA. That was submitted in June last year and has yet to get a reply. In the meantime, Hikma and Mylan are busy working with the FDA to resolve their issues. Whichever one gets to market first will take the largest share from GSK. I'm happy as i hold GSK and so far have seen better than 2Q with full revenues from Advair that none of the analysts predicted. That's currently 750M GBP per Q in sales. The other issue is that GSK will be trying to switch people onto the Ellipta products and so the overall market for Advair is falling cf. peak sales in 2013-14. The longer this drags on the smaller the potential market IMO. If all three generics come to market in 2018 then the impact for VEC will be reduced as there will be a price war to get market share.

[fhmktg] 10/1/2018 09:24

No large sellers in Hikma as far as I can see. Small volume so could be a short term trading gamble?I'm continuing to hold my VEC shares during q1 to see the outcome of discussions with the fda on the Advair generic.They are a reasonable portion of my portfolio and have been a long term hold from SKP days....I'm used to disappointment.Bad news on Advair plans and lowering Fluti sales growth could see me out and into cash for a while.

[alexchry] 10/1/2018 09:14

fhmktg-yes read that but wondering if concerns about Advair approval are to blame for the downgrade.

[fhmktg] 10/1/2018 09:07

Downgrading report from Jeffries with target of 869pHence 7% drop.

[alexchry] 10/1/2018 09:02

Hikma down well over 5% at the moment, hope this isn't an indication of bad news on the Advair generic.

[pooroldboy55] 08/1/2018 14:12

Just to think 2 weeks ago some people were paying 126p hope this is not giving up all its recent gains.

[q2u] 05/1/2018 11:43

I've held a number of shares over the years that have instigated share buyback programs but I think this is the first one that has got the timing right - so far anyway.

[blueflex2] 05/1/2018 10:25

Good insight into generics drug. I believe the board has steer the ship in a right direction, lower risk, higher volume of sales.

[jimboyce] 04/1/2018 17:13

Just a few years ago, generic drug makers owned just a small slice of the pharmaceutical drug market. Today, generics are a formidable segment of the industry and are on track to surpass branded drugs in sales value as well as sales volume within a few years, according to industry analysts.A report by GlobalData says that Indian generic manufacturers are doing particularly well in a marketplace once dominated by branded blockbusters.More and more companies are moving their manufacturing facilities overseas to cut costs.In the United States, where about 88 percent of all prescriptions written are for generics, and traditional markets in Europe, multinational branded firms feeling losses from the patent cliff, health care reform legislation, and austerity, are forming partnerships with their generic competitors to tap the expansion in generic sales.The Top Global Generic Drug MakersTeva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.: Teva regularly has over $9 billion in sales, with significant growth in its generics division. They are also targeting mergers, purchasing the rights to Allergan's generics division. Sandoz, the generics division of Novartis: With over $8.5 billion in sales, Sandoz employs over 25,000 employees worldwide and runs 30 manufacturing sites. With 28 new launches in 2014, Sandoz dominated a large part of the U.S. generic market. Actavis Inc.: In 2015, Actavis acquired competing pharmaceutical company Allergen, making Actavis a $70 billion company. It saw a 23 percent growth rate, with strong sales for drugs like Concerta, Intuniv, and OxyContin. Headquartered in Switzerland, the company employs over 10,000 people. Mylan Inc.: In 2014, Mylan had over $6 billion in sales. It also took on a large part of Abbot Pharmaceutical's business, purchasing the rights to over 100 specialty and branded generic pharmaceuticals. This deal is projected to expand Mylan's growth by more than 30 percent. Headquartered in the United States, it has over 20,000 employees worldwide.Sun Pharmaceuticals: Sun Pharmaceuticals saw a 68 percent increase in drug revenue, due in large part to its $4 billion buyout of rival Ranbaxy Laboratories. The purchase added $2 billion in revenue and solidified Sun Pharmaceuticals as a leader in the generic marketplace. In 2014, they had over $4.5 billion in overall sales and became the number one generics supplier in the United States. With over 30,000 employees, they are looking to expand their specialty care division. Aspen: As one of the few companies based in South Africa, Aspen had over $3 billion in sales in 2014, a 13 percent increase over the prior year. Its growth was due to its focus on emerging markets in Asia. It continues to look for companies to acquire to add to its portfolio of medications. Hospira: Hospira is different than other pharmaceutical companies in that it is solely focused on sterile injectable medications. Even with this limited scope, they had $2.6 billion in sales, a 12 percent increase from 2013. They have begun building in sales, particularly in the biosimilars space. It has changed its business model by closing plants in the United States, particularly its Rocky Mount factory in North Carolina. Instead, they moved operations overseas to India, where they have been able to significantly cut the cost of production.

[alexchry] 04/1/2018 17:12

polaris-completely agree with your post, the webcast emphasised the shift to generics and a much more focused approach and makes the success of the Advair generic even more important.

[boadicea] 04/1/2018 17:05

Not a bad day in the end.
Some traders who were hanging on with their recent gains for the statement will probably have cleared their positions on the basis that there is little immediate action in sight. LTBH investors and mms will not have been unnecessarily eager to rush to their aid - hence the initial softness.
That out of the way, we now have much improved philosophical clarity (as polaris points out above) and a sensibly defined path to follow.

If polaris is right about the possible sale of Flutiform assets for a capital injection, the comapny will become an even greater t/o attraction given its already very generous cash position. On those grounds I would tend to rule it out unless the company has acquisition ambitions.