Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[0815exitstrategy] 25/1/2018 15:41

sorry but i refuse to believe that the only value of vec is the generic advair. maybe if it would be the only product of vec, but it is not....

[pooroldboy55] 25/1/2018 12:47

And there was i thinking the 50p we lost last year was all down to Advair being put back for a year so no way will we get that back. If your right.

[dontay] 25/1/2018 12:36

I think that if you strip out all the speculation and the whys and wherefores for the share price dropping away again, and regardless of the reasons which may or may not be behind it... it might be more constructive to speculate on ideas as to what a 'fair value' share price might be in the event that the Advair generic issue is put on the back burner yet again for another 12 months? That is IMO a massively important subject and one that the REAL reason behind the current so weakness. That is the issue any prospective new buyer would be interested in.Forget the GSK court case patent issues... that's a long way off, anything could happen in the meantime and actually most likely will one way or another! But that issue at the present time is not so 'up front' as the USA generic approval issues.

[rathean] 25/1/2018 09:56

Great article in the FT today about pharma tie-ups fueled by recent US takeovers and cheap capital.Sit tight here, buy on the dip... could retest low 90s but that's an opportunity to buy in or average down.

[fhmktg] 25/1/2018 09:48

15 million shares is only 2% of the total issue so neither here nor there in the bigger picture.Bloody Hikma is the key and I can't see much chance of any income this year even if they don't have to redo any trials.Hopefully the issues are minor and we can get a clear timetable for marketing in q1.

[jimboyce] 25/1/2018 09:44

I think the question to ask is what would the share price have been without the buy back. Probably 95p I guess.

[pooroldboy55] 25/1/2018 09:29

kolosos

Hi can you explain why?

[popper joe] 25/1/2018 09:28

Well, with the 800000 shares bought back yesterday, we have spent a third of what has been allocated for the buy-back scheme, £5m out of £15m. Does anyone have a clue as to whether or not the actions so far should be considered a success? The share price is up a bit since the buy-back began, but probably more because of bid rumours. So when we reach the end of this process and the company has £15m less in the bank than it started with, what should we look for to indicate that it has been a success? If they manage to buy 15m shares with the £15m and reduce the number of shares in circulation from 676m to 661m, should we congratulate the board on a job well done? Or should we be hoping that they can take 20m out of circulation and push up EPS a bit higher. The more shares they are able to take out of circulation the lower the share price will have been to achieve that. It seems to be a self-defeating objective and I for one don’t understand what success looks like. Anyone care to educate me?

[kolosos] 25/1/2018 09:24

this stock has the classic signs of a short sellers nightmare all over it.

People had the same thing happen to them in OXB.

[pooroldboy55] 25/1/2018 09:19

Yes you could be right but what do we know NOTHING
Cheers POB

[alexchry] 25/1/2018 09:00

pob55-look on the bright side, they bought a lot more than usual so, hopefully, must have thought 106 was good value.

[pooroldboy55] 25/1/2018 08:14

Already falling like a stone could be today back in the 90s

[best1467] 25/1/2018 08:03

On that basis if Ventura are successful in the GSK dispute let's say at 5% royalty will it be nearly two years if so could be looking at 300 million nearly half of current market cap.
That would make a takeover an absolute nobrrainer on that basis December will be eagerly anticipated we're certainly due some good news.

[kolosos] 25/1/2018 07:29

Thank you s1zematters!

Excuse my laziness but do you recall how far through the 68 million shares buyback Numis have got?

[popper joe] 24/1/2018 19:39

I wondered if everyone has seen this. I came across it on FTalphaville on the FT site. It was part of a live market commentary on 12th Jan, the day after the Telegraph bid rumour was printed. It claims to be quoting a Citibank note, although I don't have access to Citibank to verify:

"We see a bid by GSK at such a level as an unlikely use of funds, despite GSK’s incumbent presence in respiratory, with Advair and its newer Ellipta products (Breo/Relvar/Anoro/Incruse). GSK currently pays Vectura a low single-digit
royalty on the Ellipta products, capped at £9m per anum, as part of the legacy Skyepharma business. In addition, GSK formerly paid a low single-digit royalty to Vectura’s side of the business which was capped at £13m per anum. GSK ceased to pay this in July 2016, citing that the associated IP had expired. Vectura has disputed that the IP expires in 2021 and there is a court hearing in the US in December 2018. We understand from Vectura management that, should Vectura prevail, any potential damages will not be capped at £13m per year, but will be a low single-digit percentage of Ellipta sales (consensus forecast for 2017 is £1.5bn). The other nuance to consider is that Vectura is entitled to 15% royalty on Hikma’s generic version of GSK’s Advair. We expect a resolution to the dispute with the FDA in 1Q18 regarding this product, but our expectation is that the company (Hikma) will have to re-run a clinical efficacy study, meaning a delay until at least 2019."

So if this is on the mark, no generic Advair until 2019, but potential damages from GSK could be considerably higher than the currently disputed £13m cap.

[s1zematters] 24/1/2018 15:35

It would seem Mr Rees's has a penchant for posting takeover stories on Pharm companies that fail to materialise.



Tom Rees

19 December 2017 • 6:25pm



Takeover whispers boosted long-standing target Shire to the top of the FTSE 100 as the pharma firm’s shares rallied on hopes of a mega deal bringing shareholders an early Christmas present.

Several big pharma names from the US and Europe are rumoured to be circling the firm with a price tag in excess of £50 per share mooted on the market.

[s1zematters] 24/1/2018 15:29

Yep Peel hunt are on the VEC payroll as company broker!

[a1ord53] 24/1/2018 15:23

Peel Hunt reiterates today Hold with target price 160p

[s1zematters] 24/1/2018 15:05

It looks like a nailed on short with that h&s back to 90p ;)

[s1zematters] 24/1/2018 15:04

Kolosos , vec has no control over the buyback for that very reason, a contract is formed with the broker with dates and a maximum spend, the rest is left to the broker.
Vec have NO SAY whatsoever when the shares are bought, to avoid regulatory conflicts like the one you mention
BTW under LSE takeover rules, once a company is named openly in the press about a takeover like GKP was, it (GKP) would have to issue an RNS stating it's intentions if it was true.
VEC should have issued a statement statement clarifying the situation on their end after the Telegraphs TWO articles about a takeover.

[kolosos] 24/1/2018 14:12

Don't know if anyone knows the answer but if there is a bid brewing for the company, does the share buyback program bypass the obligations the firm and its board would have under insider trading rules?