Van Elle Share Discussion Threads

[gb904150] 31/12/2021 14:32

thanks for spotting that article Gavbro0...happy to assist with posting a link!



I like VANL because it's a broad, UK based construction play. With 'build back better' and 'levelling up' tailwinds helping out.

In addition we're always reminded of the need to build more houses...so VANL sits as part of that too.

In addition....it's very cheap. Stocko tells me 1.14 P/B. 2.5% divi yield.

My main concerns are the BOD's decision making, with a very poorly timed emergency raise at the depths of covid panic, depressing the share price and questions over their pricing power. They can only charge so much until their customers start deciding they will start buying their own piling equipment. Strong demand helps with that though and I feel that should be bouncing back.

GLA in 2022.

[livewireplus] 31/12/2021 12:10

.... or next year :-) All the best for 2022

[hybrasil] 31/12/2021 12:01

Live wire.
Wait till next week!

[livewireplus] 31/12/2021 11:15

Indeed ... but the bid a bit stubborn in moving up so quite a wide spread showing.

[hybrasil] 31/12/2021 10:52

I bought another 5k this am.
Very little stock about I think

[gavbro0] 31/12/2021 10:34

Yes, Have just seen Royston Wild from Motley Fool rate Van Elle as a penny stock to buy for 2022 (written on Thursday 28th December) with a few notes on why he chose this stock.Sorry I can't forward article for all to read as that is way way beyond my capabilities. I am a humble carpenter ? after all.Happy prosperous New Year!

[hybrasil] 30/12/2021 16:28

Bought another 10,000 today it looks like it’s on a good projectile

[hybrasil] 29/12/2021 11:11

Put an order for another 5k this morning
With the directors buy and a January statement which can only be good you will see 20% in a heartbeat. At 50p it’s only valued at half the 2016 ipo

[hybrasil] 23/12/2021 09:34

Tried to buy more. No stock of size available

[hybrasil] 23/12/2021 08:45

Bought again this morning.

Probably unintentionally pushing the price.

[hybrasil] 22/12/2021 12:29

At last a bit of life.

I can easily see this doubling from here. Its trading at about asset value.

[hybrasil] 21/12/2021 15:53

Got 75k today at .43. Time will tell

[hybrasil] 21/12/2021 09:25

I was wrong but bought some more at .43p

[the oak tree] 22/11/2021 14:59

I see this trading update as strongly positive. As the CEO (wife) was minded to buy when the update was being written , lets just say it said what was probably mimiumn needed to update the market.

They have increased their holding by 138% I think which is significant IMO.

Bit surprised the order book didnt increase in line with turnover...mmmmm.....

Already a holder so not sure whether to buy more.

Anyway good news.

DYOR

[hybrasil] 22/11/2021 10:03

Bought a few more but had to pay .485 for last lot

[hybrasil] 22/11/2021 09:43

Suspect shares about to jump. I bought but could only get 10 k and had to pay 48

[muckshifter] 22/11/2021 09:15

I thought it was good news. As the wife of the CEO, she surely has a pretty good idea of how things are going at the company. It may well be that the company is holding back profits, providing itself with the ability to progressively increase profits in years to come, without major hickups.

[hybrasil] 22/11/2021 07:09

And today’s rns?

[standish11] 19/11/2021 08:49

Per today’s RNS.
The Board is pleased with the progress delivered in the first half of the year and continues to be confident that FY22 full year performance will be in line with market expectations.

[pugugly] 19/11/2021 07:54

Trading update out - Nothing to get excited about either way - If anything (imo) more downside that upside impact on share price - BWTFDIK

[shavenmoose] 18/10/2021 10:22

The rail market is dead at the minute. I would not be expecting anything significant within rail projects at present. Even HS2 is giving nothin for rail contractors as in effect at present and for the foreseeable future it is a pure civils job

[chrisdgb] 27/9/2021 08:30

Positive update and Rail here could give us a real kicker to the upside.....

[chrisdgb] 17/9/2021 12:53

Feel really positive with this one.......

[boystown] 18/8/2021 16:38

Tipped by Master Investor FWIW. I have some (but wish I hadn't for the last couple of years!).

Here it is....

Yesterday’s finals announcement from Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL), the UK’s largest ground engineering contractor, were very much in line with my expectations from when I first profiled the company in late March this year.

With revenues unchanged at £84.4m for the year to end April, the group reported an adjusted pre-tax loss of £1.2m against £0.9m previously.

The impact of Covid-19 upon the company’s trading was really quite evident.

But that was the last year
Looking deeper into the results, and after having talked with the group’s CEO and CFO yesterday morning, I now have a strong opinion that times are getting better.

Already we know that the first quarter of the current year to end April 2022 has shown some positive trading.

The group’s order book as at 9 August was standing at £34.7m, up from £26.4m on 1 June.

The group’s business
It provides a range of ground engineering techniques and services including – ground investigation, general and specialist piling, rail geotechnical engineering and modular foundations as well as ground improvement and stabilisation services.

In the last year it handled 1020 projects, giving its fleet of 115 rigs a utilisation rate of around 51%. It would have been a lot higher had it not been for the pandemic hassles. It managed 930 projects in the prior year.

Three main divisions
The group operates through three divisions: general piling (190 projects), specialist piling and rail (284 projects) and ground engineering services (546 projects).

General piling provides a range of larger piling and ground engineering solutions for open-site construction projects. This side generated £27.3m of revenues last year.

Specialist piling and rail covers a range of geotechnical solutions in operationally constrained environments including on-track rail applications. Handled £29.3m of revenues.

Ground engineering services offers various ground investigation and geotechnical services and modular foundation solutions. Managed £27.6m in revenues.

Three main markets
The order book is derived from the company focusing upon three end-markets: residential and housing, infrastructure and regional construction.

Residential business, with customers like Barratt Developments, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon, generated sector revenues of 44% of the £84.4m total.

Infrastructure, for clients like Network Rail, Highways England and HS2, created some 34% of the group’s total.

Regional construction, covering work for Galliford Try, Morgan Sindall and Kier, made up 22% of the overall turnover.

Covid-19 was a delaying factor
The dreaded virus held the group back somewhat, as it progressed under its relatively recent appointed management team, headed by CEO Mark Cutler, who joined three years ago, and CFO Graeme Campbell, who came on board a year and a half since.

Perhaps a one-year delay in its sales and profit hike was the result. However, the corporate growth strategy remains firmly in place.

But this year it is a different story
The first quarter’s strength of business together with a strong balance sheet with £8.5m cash, a growing order book and the prospects of delayed rail business being enacted all combine to make this a very interesting recovery prospect.

Peel Hunt estimates 52p a share
Analysts at Peel Hunt rate the group’s shares as a “buy” with a price objective of 52p. They go for £97.3m sales this year, generating a £3m adjusted pre-tax profit which is worth 2.3p per share in earnings.

For the next year they see £104.3m sales and £5m profits, working out at 3.8p per share in earnings.

Zeus Capital see 64.4p of value
Zeus Capital initiated coverage of the company yesterday. Their analyst Andy Hanson is more bullish than those at Peel Hunt. For this year, he has gone for £102.7m of sales, £2.6m profits and 1.9p of earnings. He sees this leading on to £108.1m sales in the next year with £4.6m of profits and 3.5p earnings.

Further down the line, Hanson estimates that the end April 2024 year will see £113.5m of revenues and £6.5m of pre-tax profits, worth 4.9p per share in earnings and covering a 1.7p dividend.

Based upon his estimates, his valuation of the shares is 64.4p.

AGM at end of September
The group will be holding its AGM on Monday 27 September, at which time another Trading Update will be issued.

Fingers crossed it will be positive and give detail of further progress in achieving greater rail orders.

Massive dealing volume yesterday
The group’s shares closed at around 46p last night after a considerable dealing volume of over 1.1m shares, against the recent average daily turnover of just 30,685 shares dealt.

Up 37% since profile
The company’s shares have climbed by 37% to 51.5p since I profiled the company in late March at 37.5p.

At the current 46p they are still up nearly 23% in just over four months, but I think this is just the start.

My View – another 30% plus to go for
I see them easily breaking back over the 50p level and upwards to 60p before the end of the year, which offers another 30% plus price lift.

Great upside not to be missed.

[sphere25] 17/8/2021 13:15

Pretty much the same theme all round with this cautionary statement:

"The Group is experiencing some challenges from widely publicised supply chain issues, particularly with regard to cement, concrete, and steel pricing and availability. Raw material price increases are being adjusted in contract tenders, but contract margins could be impacted if the availability and price volatility continues. There has also been some impact on short term employee availability, where our people have been required to self-isolate by the NHS test and trace app."

So they only hit forecasts IF there is no deterioration in the above, except there have been a few companies coming out recently and putting out warnings because of the above.

It doesn't matter as much if you're long term, but in the near term it will be interesting to see if more do follow with the warning's and how folk are approaching things. Clearly if some big buyers come into this or another share post a report like that, it becomes easier to follow them in and piggyback off the demand.

However, if that doesn't happen, is it worth the risk here? What if the company warns? Perhaps it is better to wait if unsure. VANL has a history of being profit warning central so not the best example, but there are definitely going to be a few landmines out there.

If it is all very transitory, then it could be ok, but what if the FED is wrong and inflation does spiral more than expected? What if rates have to climb sooner and more that expected, the US market will likely come off heavy then.

The markets are stable though, no drama so there isn't much expectation that this threat plays out. The FED has been fudging their policy around inflation too, but so long as the market buys it, shouldn't be explosions out there.

But who knows, you always get commentators on both sides, but I am following the market. As long as it stays stable and the bond yields aren't flying higher, it is ok to keep looking for the opportunities on the long side.


All imo
DYOR