Hope it doesn't become another forgotten AIM share and judging by recent events and news i should imagine all the various major shareholders are hoping it doesnt become one either..
In the recent IMC they did say that they had a number of shareholder meetings lined-up. Harwood have expressed dissatisfaction and frustration but have recently added to their already large stake...
You don't usualy see PG come aboard companies unless something needs changing or improving either... |
Looks like the brief excitement is over here .. back to being another forgotten AIM share |
Interesting comments from Richard Staveley of Harwood in this podcast. They, along with other major shareholders, are frustrated with the company (this frustration by major shareholders was also talked about in the recent imc also). You can tell by the look on his face too (43m in): |
No mystery there - they were very open on the presentation. They admitted that performance since IPO has been poor and that some investors had lost patience |
Creates an over hang?...if only we knew why the large shareholders were selling... |
The imc presentation was v good. Thought the question on why the joint broker announcement was interesting. Their reply was that they were aware of fund redemptions and x amount of large shareholders selling or wanting to sell hence the adoption of another broker who has experience in bringing more investors on board.
That was their reasoning anyway but surely with Harwood, who are buyers, and now PG i would think they will be mopping up any loose shares. |
The Dowgate report is pretty bullish, well worth a look through. It's not by some junior either - the analyst is Mark Howson who was the no.1 rated construction analyst for over 10 years |
 We believe that the Group's end market exposures have placed the business in a strong growth position. This ranges from increased investment in the UK's Housing, water and Energy sectors.We highlight how the Group's current fleet investment and mix change is set to be a key driver of growth and importantly lead to an improvement to margins/RoIC.The Albion Drilling acquisition will help, particularly in 2026.We believe the expected RoIC improvement should shift the valuation to a premium to NAV rather than a discount.We start at Buy/TP 62p Investing in higher RoIC kit and services, with faster cashflow paybacks should drive a re-rating in our view, alongside the structural upturn. We expect this fleet evolution, with increased utilisation for higher ROCE rigs, will see the post tax ROIC of the Group clear WACC by an increasing margin, with the rate of revenue growth expected to exceed the rate of growth in rigs. By 2027E, we expect the Group to reach close to its 15-20% ROCE target, a 5% margin (6-7% target) and 3-year average revenue growth at the top of the 5-10% target. With a 2027E ungeared position, we believe that the enhancing Albion deal demonstrates how more value can be added. Several of the Group's markets are set to upturn from 2025. Firstly, the new UK Government's housing targets are for an annual level of home completions some 123% above current production. Secondly, the level of AMP8 Water spending for the next 5 years looks set to be double the prior level. Thirdly, UK electricity demand outweighs supply, with supplier Balfour Beatty (N/R), highlighting that the UK needs 5x the amount of new transmission/cabling in the next 10 years than the previous 30 years. The new CP7 rail programme is biased towards project types that favour Van Elle. |
NT to buy at the minute anyway.. |
Same reasoning still stands...you are at mercy of others regardless of other noises...be it margins or where the share price is... |
Woodford was very smart fund manager...then you know what happened...investing is a funny old thing...too many variables at any given time and you are at the mercy of others... |
With rockwood and gillenhammer as significant shareholders, likely to add at these levels, van elle is with high probability going to be on the receiving end of a bid in a not too distant future. At 5 times EBIDTA we should see 60-65p on the table this year. Wait a year or two and 75-85p is fully realistic. |
There is also a clever bias called the availability heuristic, it is where you overweight the effect of recent events on your judgement of probability. These results arent great by any stretch. But have to give equal consideration to the pretty behemoth amount of buying from some very smart fund managers, theyre no fools. I am just thinking out loud at this point, apologies. Hard to know if youre bending information to make things seem okay or if youre just staying rational. Investing is a funny old thing. |
Nice to see the crossover from Renew didn't really materialise, In my opinion these shares, regardless of growth, are of value, cycles change, it seems impossible of course but cycles are inevitable. And these shares offer good value with the most conservative of expectations, sometimes better to zoom out. what are we paying for? Right now the price we are paying is a company that will benefit from no cyclicality, that will never get busier, and will stay the same or get worse, I just simply can't help but think this is not true. It has been down for years, but anyone who thinks probabilistically would say that the longer it's down the higher chance it will revert to the mean and outperform. All IMO but it just seems like one to buy and wait a couple years |
VANL was one of the first companies to do Placing around Covid if I remember correctly...think it was 30p... |
Margins down to 3.2%???...any room for errors... |
Yes I found that a bit odd as well. Cash levels not great but they are owed a fair amount by HMRC. Hopefully it's not to line up a placing |
Too much jam tomorrow talk but as mentioned by previous poster regulatory delays stiffening momentum with wider economic environment and higher rates... |
Hmmm. Wonder why a minnow like VANL see the need for another broker on the team? Getting the defence squad lined up? Interesting |
Yes, the outlook is looking better imo and the order book up significantly. |
But arguably up with events if Van does 4pence eps compared to say costain on mid single digits. |
Activity levels improving, housing sounds promising. Not a bad effort considering all the regulatory delays |
Have little expectations for this weeks update… |
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