Valirx Share Discussion Threads

[livedata21] 09/8/2023 19:03

That was to porky

[livedata21] 09/8/2023 19:02

Valirx have revenue. CRO margins are good. We will agree to disagree.

[siliconmark] 09/8/2023 17:46

“If I was him”.
I think everyone (including Adam) is extremely happy that you aren’t.

I would hate to have your life (if you can call it that). Just saying.

[porky9] 09/8/2023 17:10

I’m actually starting to feel a bit sad for investors either buying this pup or averaging down at 6.8p thinking it’s a great entry price - the ramping club on LSE are relentless.

By 31/8 they need to publish H1 unless they can delay it. When that happens the share price will absolutely tank unless Adam wants to prop it up. The problem he has if he does is that VAL will likely place at 3.5p or less anyhow if they can muster support. Adam might be better just supporting the placement but if I was him would I want to Chuck another 500k at this to keep the BOD in salaries for a couple more months or would I rather invest in APTA as a Director?

This is going to get interesting but I do have empathy for current investors, the train is in the track now but they can’t see it coming. BOD will place at any price they can get cash in at - watch this space.

This business should never have been allowed to be run this way but Adam is partly to blame IMO - he had opportunity to make changes but bottled it for whatever reason. The votes were clearly there to force change but were overridden by the look of it.

Not long to find out

[porky9] 09/8/2023 16:53

@Livedata
Yes they are a start up, haven’t secured all the major accreditation’s yet. They brought the assets of Imogen in a liquidation fire sale because nobody wanted to buy a loss making CRO. At their height they were employing 33 staff and still couldn’t make it viable, this is highly labour intensive work.
The CRO sector is a tough one to crack, the sector has an eye watering number of competitors and its littered with loss making peers and a very high failure rate.
I’m not saying VAL can’t make a lab successful, I’m simply saying it will take several more raises to stand any chance.Meanwhile the sector has a financial drought hence even less business about to fight for.

@Jason
Very small punt but want to see outcome of AGM, had I been a turner Pope client I would have purchased a parcel at 1p for sure, odds are good at 1p. It represents a stronger play than here as the raise is being supported and they are doing 1.7m with over £3m cash - Outside of that I don’t know enough about the play. There is a whole discussion on that board of which I contributed what I did know over on LSE if you are interested? This board is to discuss VAL

Take care and Good luck

[livedata21] 09/8/2023 10:30

Did you buy or hold any?

[livedata21] 09/8/2023 10:29

Valirx bought the assets of Imagen CRO - revenue already from those assets. This is not a start up.

[francoismyname] 09/8/2023 10:18

I’m being generous and placing done at 4p. Said that for a good while.

You could be right though Porky as the tough market conditions may see it around 2p. Last we week we saw evidence of a placing done at a 78% discount to it closing price the day before.

As long as the bonuses keep rolling in I’m sure the BOD will care not be jot how many confetti shares they issue.

[jasonpugh] 09/8/2023 09:39

@porky. Did you buy many shares yesterday in APTAMER? Do you think its a good investment based on adams appointment and slaters recommendation?

[wulber] 09/8/2023 07:16

Had this conversation with VAL before and was told cash until middle of 2024 and although the lab is not self financing right now, they envisage this by Y/E.

[porky9] 09/8/2023 06:26

@Livedata21
That’s a real banker/ government type comment when they open a new office, fit it out and take on half a dozen staff to man it and claim it’s paying for itself when all they have in fact done is moved one internal cost base to another and added to it.

What you have identified is another problem VAL have. The board is top heavy with ex. Banking type financial background thinking people. The real world of business does not work this way. Let me explain further;

The lab is a new ADDITION and is part of the VAL business. It is a liability. The business administration costs and cash burn has increased for the overall business as a result of setting up and staffing their own in house lab.

It will only be paying for itself when it brings in sufficient EXTERNAL business, invoiced and paid for that is in excess of what the lab running costs and it’s five staff cost to permanently run a new lab division.

At the moment they have secured one three month lab contract of an unspecified amount, which is a great start. My point has always been that it will take significant time and significant sales and marketing costs to secure enough paid business to cover VALs costs. This is not a criticism I’m sure in a few years time the lab could do ok, this is a VERY competitive sector they have entered, this is why the board are not buying shares because they know the business will need a lot more capital to establish its CRO offering. IF you look at the general CRO market because they are so labour intensive very few actually make any money, many go out of business, frankly it’s going to be a long hard slog for VAL to go from zero invoiced revenue to over £2.4m to break even assuming costs don’t increase further.

[livedata21] 08/8/2023 23:51

The CRO is paying for itself already. Forgot to mention that.

[porky9] 08/8/2023 23:11

@livedata
So is the above clarity enough for you? Its all in black and white if you read the results statements.

BUT for double clarity the H1 results statement due any moment, unless they delay it will spell it out for you.

Meanwhile, I have studied the trading patterns of this stock and its actually quite manipulated. Today was a blatant P&D attempt by a couple of existing holders IMO it will be interesting how that works out for them.

In my opinion, the market is done with Jam, they need results and this story has been sun so many times now its become ridiculous - Has anyone not heard of a VAL discounted placing?

Its like the discounted sale at DFS, the big one, the one and only triple discount sale now on.........only to find a couple of months later there is another discounted sale and this one is the sale of all sales....

Watch this space: Placing will land at 3.5p IF they can secure support, IF they can't it will be 2p

[porky9] 08/8/2023 22:52

@Livedata21
NO they do not.
Cash runway runs out end of the year and they need to sort the placing very shortly BUT i am going to re-post the proof now (next two messages) because over here on ADVFN you can't remove posts without good reason.

Here is the reality:-

[livedata21] 08/8/2023 22:37

Val have funds until middle of 2024 plus revenue from CRO.

[porky9] 08/8/2023 21:38

Well if you call second week of Jan well into 2024 then yes.

The H1 statement will be issued in a couple of weeks unless they delay it and then @PM2022 over on LSE can shut up making false claims that the cash runway is longer. Its not, the burn rate is close to £200k pcm.

[wulber] 08/8/2023 19:01

Don't they have funds to support well in to 2024?

[porky9] 08/8/2023 16:54

@Dope007
Depends really on where/ IF it can find support.
I'm calling 3.5p BUT other investors i have spoken to think in this market 2p is more likely. Capital raising for working capital is really challenging and discounts have been brutal frankly.
Will soon see.

[porky9] 08/8/2023 16:51

@JasonPugh
Current Holding Position:-
Monecor (London) Ltd 4,466,969 4.37%

Monecor London Ltd
Monecor London Ltd. offers financial spread betting and derivate dealing services. The Company offers spread betting in a range of markets including stock indexes, currencies, shares, interest rates, and commodities. Monecor London serves institutional, high net worth and retail customers.

From a commercial perspective, its holding in VAL is relatively minor compared to its other assets. According to companies house it did make a 6m loss in 21 and a number of directors have left. Not sure what its current trading position is like but frankly i don't see any reason for it to continue holding VAL but that being said it probably has no urgency to ditch it either.

The big difference between them and Adam is they are commercial and are not emotionally invested. If i was on their board i would be advising them to sell now and buy back in placing if they want to maintain a position in a start up lab business.

[dope007] 08/8/2023 15:31

On its way to sub 1p this isn't it?

[porky9] 08/8/2023 15:15

@Jasonpugh
What evidence have you got of that?
It could make sense as they could cover with own holdings however, however they would still need to declare via a TR1 that they had sold x stock via CFDs or similar so I don’t see it myself but anything is possible i guess

[wulber] 08/8/2023 14:42

Who is Monecor?