Valirx Share Discussion Threads

[livedata21] 26/7/2023 08:54

"Val want to build a CRO from scratch".Forgetting to mention Val have bought Imagen CRO with all their assets including customer base. Get over 4D and focus on recouping your money - good luck.

[porky9] 25/7/2023 17:08

@412069
Give it a rest about 4D pharma, If you invest in penny shares as part of your portfolio you cant call them all right, its even harder if the CEO tells you they have a cash runway for at least a year but fails to tell you they are in breach of covenants. I understand an action group is taking legal action, not that it will likely result in any SH Recovery.

This thread is about VAL, now good luck to you, you want to invest your hard earned here you fill your boots. Hope it works out for you. The board wont invest, they are not stupid but its fine for you to chuck more cash at it - so you go for it.

My view remains that the Cash burn is far far too high, board changes are essential for success and the current plan to build out a CRO business from scratch is going to take significant time and significantly more capital and that needs to change for this to become even remotely investible frankly.

The acid test will be what price they can/if they can secure investor support for the placing. My call now is 3.5p and the longer its left the lower it will go. The appetite to invest just for working capital at the moment is limited and i really believe they will struggle with it but we will know soon enough. Cash runs out end of this year. So 5 mths left to go hence they need to get a move on.

Just be prepared to invest and enjoy further continued dilution, this is why the board are NOT buying. After 15 raises, three 125:1 share consolidations, 5 raises under Suzy and a sixth due any moment, dire handling of 201, a ridiculous CENKOS options deal, missed time to market by not adding new evaluations, director bonuses when the business cant afford it, the "Gerald Rather" moment from Stella, the "im not buying shares, i have my family to think of" remark from Suzy and the BS from Martin about not buying due to closed periods, the FD residing over both the first crash and the emergency placing yet still on the board, i could go on, frankly i question how bad it has to get here before you wake up and see that board changes are essential and direction changes desperately needed for this business to stand half a chance.

So you just ignore my posts and crack on, if you can add enough stock you might help someone else trapped to get out at less of a loss so at least that's a positive.

You posting here about how great the investment is is akin to someone suffering from some kind of stockholm syndrome, the company have totally taken the p@ss, continue to make stupid errors yet you go back for more. Just like the board, doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome - utter madness.

[livedata21] 25/7/2023 09:25

Adam owns 7.8 pct of Val. I think I know who to trust.

[porky9] 24/7/2023 22:32

Frankly I think Adam is a great Guy but he missed a trick
Should have offloaded half the board at the AGM, ultimately he will need to do it anyhow.

Shortly they will drop a cash call on him and he will need to part with 500k large IMO to ensure placing support - that might be his turning point.

The BOD do not deserve the guys loyalty IMO

[porky9] 24/7/2023 21:59

Wow and you call me a deluded fool....

Have you ANY comprehension of how hard it is to win a £10k lab support contract let alone £20 million quids worth of orders? Especially with all the competition and against the backdrop of a biotech funding drought?

Not to mention have you ANY idea of how much they would need to invest in marketing plus how many more staff they would need to service it not to mention the extra business required each year to cover the churn rate as new contracts need to be continually won as many are short term, ie like the 3 mth one they just secured.

Good luck to you, if they can get the placing away at 3.5p they will have done well. They will need placement support, I suggest you all dig deep for this great opportunity and amazing driven BOD

[livedata21] 24/7/2023 17:15

Well said. The Imagen purchase was good business. Val will transfer clients from Imageb to Val. I'm expecting revenue circa £20 in 4-5 years.

[412069] 24/7/2023 15:58

Give it up Porky you’re looking like a deluded fool now.
Follow the science now fella.

[412069] 24/7/2023 15:54

A tweet from The Proff

[porky9] 24/7/2023 14:07

@Livedata21
I think that perfectly demonstrates the sheer naivety of the Board frankly, lets see them deliver £200k of revenue first before we talk about millions... total pipe dream and an unrealistic projection in an attempt to sucker more cash in.

To take revenue to £20m in 4 years is total pie in the sky.

For one thing its labour intensive work so to even deliver anything close to that would need a significant head count. Imagen burnt through £6m had 33 staff at one point and still couldn't secure 10% of that target over 5 years. Val currently have 5 in labs.

Secondly, the marketing budget would need to be enormous, this business doesn't fall from the sky someone has to tender for it, win the business. They have what, one person on sales and spending money attending international trade fairs. No, you need to employ an absolute minimum of a team of sales staff, they need at least 5 sales staff and 2 marketing staff supporting. The fact that this business hasn't invoiced a bean in 15 years says it all frankly, they are clueless when it comes to sales. They will also need to add someone on credit control to collect invoices when they do win business - this will all add to the wageroll which is already too high with them burning £2.4m as it stands.

Thirdly, the market is saturated with CROs the competition is massive, just take a look at it:-


All these CROs are offering similar services and now VAL need to compete in this sector and now want you to back their start up lab venture.

Forthly, sorry but valuations for CROs are really low, even more so currently. The worldwide market leader ICON is in 110 countries and offers the entire CRO service through to supporting phase trails at every level and that one is valued at circa 3 times revenue. So by direct comparison VAL would need sales of £2.5m to justify the current market cap and need to demonstrate at least a 20% ebitda.

As it stands they are burning £2.4ma year. Unless they make board changes and reduce the cash burn, i'm expecting the share price to drop to 3.5p for the placing due that's if they can get it over the line.

[livedata21] 24/7/2023 12:58

Val bought the assets of Imagen Therapeutics for a song. Val have the assets including client base, equipment and IP. Good deal.The lab is already generating revenue before expectations (the lab is officially launched in September, when there is likely to be more contracts announced). That's when other investors will come. Expected revenues are £20MM within 4 years (AGM, 2022).This share has had problems in the past but now the company is generating sales, I'm expecting the share price to double in the next couple of months, if not sooner.

[porky9] 24/7/2023 06:37

The resident ramping club over at LSE will positively hate a post from another about the historic raises, but they do make a very valid observation IMO.

However, apart from what is now an expected further raise that will land anytime soon that can only come at significant discount due to market conditions there are two other big elephants in the room that nobody here likes to consider.

The FIRST is that following the small raise in January its clear that either the market to position and sell pre-clinical assets or early stage assets to big pharma to fund trials forward has fallen off a cliff due to the current biotech funding drought hence why they have never got a deal done to date or the BOD are inadequate in negotiating skills to get deals done, either way its an incredibly long period of time that needs funding without success to date.

Not adding new evaluations to the pipeline hasn’t helped either however, I can see why they have had a reluctance to adding new if they don’t have confidence that they can position the asset quickly enough to get a financial return. Yet this is the key area that Investors like, everyone wants to find and support possible Cancer cures. The focus and direction of the business has now changed.

If we read the new brokers note from Turner Pope following the Jan placement its clear that the as a result the business model has switched completely to building out a CRO: -



Now I’m not sure if I like the new business model myself. Initially they were going to buy a lab with an established client base, but they decided as they needed cash for working capital it was better to start their own up lab up but in doing so this naïvely materially under estimated how much investment is required to invest into sales and marketing to secure lab business.

Turning to the SECOND elephant in the room, to start up a new CRO is going to take significant time and investment. The market is completely saturated with small CROs all competing. Take your pick and this is before we even look at worldwide: -



This is why in the Turner Pope report they reference the need to BUY other assets so that the CRO can be positioned as something unique. Four were identified but come at more placing cash but this does make sense IF this is now the desired route.

Personally, I’m not interested in funding a start up lab and secondly the best ones in the market can only run at about a net 20% margin at best as they are so labour intensive, many close as they just can’t be made viable. This is a tough road to go down IMO and valuations for CRO businesses are really low. VAL would need to be doing millions in revenue to justify their current mcap.

Initially, I was advocate for a) making board changes b) bringing cash burn under control, I still believe essential however, now I believe the business model needs a total rethink.

Personally, i would like them to ditch building their own CRO and just focus on finding and positioning as many possible new Cancer Cures as they can to make a difference and use one of the many external CROs. Not sure how long before market conditions improve but for me this is what i want to see.

It will be interesting to see what the market wants and IF VAL can get support for this next raise on the current business plan.

[jasonpugh] 20/7/2023 23:35

Panu not buying is ?

[jasonpugh] 20/7/2023 08:33

No Director buys. Why?

[porky9] 20/7/2023 08:01

@Jason
Nobody paying anyone for anything you berk. We are all entitled to opinion.

@Siliconmark
Because I have done a shed load of research and I actually like the concept of this business but its currently a wasted opportunity at the hands of the current BOD and i await the day for when that changes.

[jasonpugh] 20/7/2023 07:57

Wow porky. You’ve been busy this morning on lse. So much hard work. Slater slug really getting you to work. You need a raise inline with inflation. Ask king charles boy for more coin 👍👍

[siliconmark] 20/7/2023 07:05

There are plenty of uninvestable companies out there. If Val is one, then why does Porky only keep posting about this company? You wouldn’t, as there would be absolutely no point.

[412069] 20/7/2023 06:29

Odds on that you would have an end of shift post on here this morning Porky lie.
Best people stick to Turner Popes version of events given yesterday.
Desperate posts now from Posty Pork’s

[jasonpugh] 20/7/2023 06:16

Wow porky. How much did slater pay you for that?👏

[porky9] 20/7/2023 05:56

The Market is not stupid despite what the ramping club over at LSE might make you believe and removing posts that dare question the ramping is outrageous frankly.

You would expect some lab contract work to come over after Imogen went into liquidation and VAL purchased its assets. Todays three month contract win will be of token value in comparison to the current cash burn. Lets face it, IF VAL won half a million quid's worth of new lab contracts (not likely) a) it would be on payment terms and b) it would only cover a couple of months cash burn anyhow. Long, Long way to go.

It is going to take a long time and far more capital to take a start up CRO lab from zero to profitability and more so in a CRO crowded market and at a time of a biotech funding drought.

At least todays share price spike may allow a few trapped to get out at a better bid price.

Cash runway runs out end of the year so they have to get that placing underway very soon. They really need to get a move on. Initially i thought they might get support at 5p but now i'm not so sure following PYCs raise that didn't fully fill at a 50% discount.

The ramping club are having none of this saying the runway is significantly longer, it is not, the results statement proves its not. VAL have been very open and honest about this and the requirement to raise. There is not one event that can bring cash in other than a placing and some token lab invoices and they are burning close to £200k pcm. How they got back up to that level of burn again when Kevin pledged to bring cash burn under control April 21 is beyond me.

But even if VAL did the same as PYC and gave a 50% discount would you buy at 3.5p knowing all you are doing is paying staff wages and cash burn for what would be another five months before yet more cash required? This is why the directors are NOT buying. Raising just for Working capital is really tough at the moment.

In terms of the business, in today RNS they state that via the labs they have now "commenced studies on internal ValiRx assets VAL301 and Cytolytix CLX001" well what have they been doing the last few years??

CLX is a preclinical asset and 301 still years on needs work so is probably at least a couple of years off being ready for trying to find a funded partner. Meanwhile, our prize asset, the crown jewels of the business 201 was given to a start up and frankly after two years of waiting, which is a travesty in itself, i really don't see THX getting funded anytime soon and we are paying for that not to mention the lost time.

Due to the focus on labs, they didn't start the evaluation of any new pipeline drugs, remember they previously promised 6-8 new evaluations and delivered zero, hence we are now another year behind on that also and even if they announced a new one tomorrow that is extra time that has to be made up and would need funding. Yet again the Shareholder is paying for the mistakes.

So what is there to invest in exactly? A start up CRO that needs loads of funding?

Seriously, the BOD have become directionless with only a drive to build labs, we should have cleared out the dead wood on the board but Adam has saved them all for some mad reason...

Cash burn needs to be brought under control yet the BOD are doing nothing about that just continuing to spend as usual when everyone else in the biotech sector is battening down the hatches. Further, the BOD have awarded themselves more salary and generous bonuses when the business just doesn't have it, why would you do that?. The FD that resided under both share price crashes is still in situ and until that changes where do we go from here?

Appreciate my post is bleak but the potential here is just being wasted as i see it. Its now a waiting game, see if they can get the placing away and at what price?. But in reality until we get BOD changes and strong fiscal control i consider it practically uninvestable unless you want to back a materially overvalued start up lab business.

[wulber] 19/7/2023 21:52

That was a damp squib!

[chesty1] 19/7/2023 09:06

Noticed it pop onto the leaderboard then drop off...just popped in to see why zzzzzz

[412069] 19/7/2023 08:59

You must be otherwise why say!

[chesty1] 19/7/2023 08:53

Nobody interested 412