Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 08/3/2024 12:36

Who knows! One can only speculate SS.
Sadly a missed opportunity to be open and transparent with investors. We deserve more.

[subsurface] 08/3/2024 12:15

Hi XX

I suspect they are starting to Row back from Gas back to Oil at Ten the plans cover both but can be separated out as per Rahul
Better chance of getting cash for Oil sales than Gas through the Ghana Gas system.

The other point they talk about production numbers to 2030,this may be to smooth the path for Loans when required after 2026.

Perhaps not have spare parts for the WI

[xxnjr] 08/3/2024 12:03

Another concern (at least for me) is the JUB w/inj issue. Whilst useful TLW slide 17 results pres didn't get to the nub of the matter. There was no explanation of what went wrong and any corrective actions carried out. So we have no facts available to judge whether the issue is fixed once and for all, or may reoccur. Since TLW failed to provide this crucial info one can only assume there might be some aspect the company don't wish to shed light on.

I also note Slide 11 of 2020 CMD Pres

• Water injection remains a key area of focus on Jubilee
• Greater water injection volumes to sustain reservoir pressure and improve sweep efficiency
• Three water injection pumps operational on Jubilee with injection capacity building up to >300kbw/d

with a graphic on w/inj rates (kbw/d)

2017/19 Actual: 130
2020/21 Forecast: 180
2022F: 270
2023YE: 300

But a recent Kosmos Pres shows that in 2023 peak rates (before the 'issue') were only 220K bw/d. 50K to 80K bw/d (at peak) below what Rahul indicated 3 yrs ago.

i.e there are 2 concerns

the issue could re-occur
why are we still 50 to 80 Kbw/d short?

Noting that according to KOS 100% Jubilee voidage replacement at the moment

[xxnjr] 08/3/2024 11:31

It's worth taking a look at some aspects of TEN from the recent TRACS annual reserves reports. Bit of background

The TEN fields commenced production in August 2016. There are currently 10 wells in Enyenra (5 producers, 5 injectors) and 8 wells in Ntomme (4 producers, 2 water injectors and 2 gas injectors). The development of TEN utilises a FPSO with production and injection wells connected via a subsea network of manifolds and flowlines tied back to the FPSO

The 2022 report said

• "Approved for Development Reserves (AD) is associated with one development well in Tweneboa oil scheduled to be online by early 2024"..... We now know this well didn't happen.

• "Justified for Development Reserves (JD) associated with the development of Enyenra South, further development of Tweneboa oil and one Ntomme water injector. All activities to be completed by end 2025."..... And that didn't happen either.

The latest 2023 report says

• "Approved for Development Reserves (AD) is associated with one development well in Ntomme oil scheduled to be online by early 2024.... (This has not been drilled either).

• Justified for Development Reserves (JD) associated with the development of Enyenra South, and a single Tweneboa gas producer (for gas re-injection to Ntomme). All activities to be completed by end 2027."

The Joint Venture Partners (JVP) are currently in negotiation with the Government of Ghana (GoG) Negotiation Committee (NG) on a Joint Sales Agreement for Jubilee and TEN. At the time of writing, whilst good progress has been made, some key principles of the gas commercialisation remain to be agreed. In this evaluation Jubilee gas is assumed to continue to be sold under the terms of the existing agreement given that two extensions have been signed since Tullow entered the Interim GSA arrangements in July 2023. The current extension (Amendment #8) expires 31 May 2024. Currently, with no firm gas export agreement for TEN, for the purpose of reserves calculation outlined in this report it is assumed that all gas will be re-injected into Ntomme to support oil recovery.

Absent of a new GSA/POD not a lot happening then. Let's move on to the economics

"TEN FPSO Minimum contract term end date of 31st March 2027 since it would be preferable to continue operate TEN at a loss rather paying the remainder of the lease as a lump sum and foregoing production revenue.

Hadn't realised things were that bad. Seems like over the period from now to end of minimum lease TEN will run at a loss on current assumptions. According to TRACS TEN reserves are currently assessed at a negative value of -$67.3m.

Latest TRACS report here



any comments?

[badger36] 08/3/2024 10:58

Probably sulphur and water going by our history

[subsurface] 08/3/2024 08:52

General interest

Cote d'Ivoire: Eni announces a major discovery in block CI-205, offshore Cote d'Ivoire


The Calao discovery was greeted as a significant one. Drilling operations took place approx. 45 kms off the coast in block CI-205, reaching a depth of 5,000 meters in water depths of around 2,200 meters. The well encountered light oil, gas, and condensates in various intervals of Cenomanian age




Tullow are in blocks CI 524 and 803 against the boundary line with Ghana

[adrian j boris] 06/3/2024 17:27

hojjat
6 Mar '24 - 17:25 - 4345 of 4345
0 0 0

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 17:25

hxxps://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/5.+Archive+2024/Tullow+FY+Results+2023.mp4

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 17:22

Watch the event today:

hxxps://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/5.+Archive+2024/Tullow+FY+Results+2023.mp4

[up just a little bit] 06/3/2024 16:01

With the write down and new projections this is a good entry point.

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 15:43

Ghana 2P Oil reserves

01/01/2023: 164.3
Revisions: -4.9
Production: -15.5
2023 y/end: 143.8

Note 3 Page 31 "Reserves and Resources revisions in Ghana relate to evaluation of the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, infill drilling and field performance in Jubilee during 2023, which is offset by the re-categorisation of the Tweneboa oil project from reserves to contingent resource.

OK.... you'd expect Ghana Contingent Oil Reserves to go up then. But no!

Ghana Contingent Reserves

01/01/2023: 185.0
Revisions: -32.0
2023 y/end: 143.8

meaning Ghana 2P + Contingent Reserves have fallen from 349.3m to 296.6m

a 53m barrels reduction!!!!

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 15:38

Given oil price above $83 and production 100k bpd, share price should be much higher. I predict well above 60p this year

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 14:11

Paying out debt and cost of development is not loss. That's why TLW is producing higher oil volume.

Production is 100k recently at the time oil price is higher than last year ($83.5 as I type).

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 13:48

Not sure I concur with slide 18 on TEN

"Reduced annual production decline to c.10%"

Dec 2022 gross was 22,869 bopd
Dec 2023 gross was 18,497 bopd, or 19.1% down

2022FY gross averaged 23,597 bopd
2023FY gross averaged 18,401 bopd, or 22% down
2024 Guidance is (9K/.5484) 16,411 bopd, or -10.8%

Yes 2024 guidance has been "reduced" to about -10%
but whichever way you look at it TEN production fell/declined by 19% to 22% in 2023!

[alfiex] 06/3/2024 12:04

Thats why share price is where it is.

[up just a little bit] 06/3/2024 11:57

Any broker predicted targets yet on the back of this news?

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 11:34

Anyone noticed we made a loss for 2023 of -$109.6m!

meaning our after tax loss over the last 5 yrs totals

-$3.05 billion!

[mccracken227] 06/3/2024 11:06

Guidance between 62/68k bpd for 2024 been saying that for years, looks like jam tomorrow again, same as last 10 yrs.

[subsurface] 06/3/2024 10:38

Just what I thought XX

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 10:17

Kenya morphing into a potential smaller scale trucking operation?

[badger36] 06/3/2024 09:34

Someone is lying as the market has spoken. Just incomprehensible that oil is at 82, debt falling, production rising and stock collapsing. They have no credibility now given the stock price

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 09:00

slide 17 of



suggests JUB 1H 2024 will vary between 75K and 105K?
And JUB 2H 2024 at slightly higher despite no new wells?
But guidance still 100K?

Edit..... although the orange line is above those levels!

That orange line does confirm production (so far) this year has been about 90K which is what tanker movements were suggesting. Now we are apparently around 100K which would be good if it lasts. It's an optimistic scenario on Jubilee. Will be interesting to see if that gets downgraded as year progresses.

[bootycall] 06/3/2024 08:56

Tullow was at 107k gross on Jubilee before the water injector failure with all the new wells yet to come on stream. If the equipment had not failed , they would probably have beaten guidance. Even now you cannot just re pressurise overnight, which is why they have slowly been rebuilding production levels. The rig is still in situ until mid year. Running production aggressively might damage the resevoir so engineers will be looking at optimised production over field life …averaging 100k to almost the end of the decade is the biggest jump in guidance for several years.

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 08:51

From reportthis morning, see Section Ghana, paragraph 5:

"Five new Jubilee wells (three producers and two water injectors) are scheduled to come onstream in 2024. The first water injector was brought on stream in January, and two producers were brought on stream in February, with gross production currently averaging over 100 kbopd."

Note: At one point the debt was about $4.8B, production around 87kbopd and the share price mostly between 170p - 230p.

Oil ptice is much higher now, over $82 .... and is stable