Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 15/8/2022 20:33

Kenya - Deputy president William Ruto has been declared winner of the presidential election in Kenya. Ruto won 50.5 per cent of the vote, while former prime minister and veteran opposition leader, Raila Odinga, who was backed by outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, won 48.8 per cent with all the votes counted, according to official results released on Monday. All that sounds a bit convoluted.

Odinga is apparently contesting the result so I guess the pantomime will continue for another month or so. Bit like the UK ;-)

[xxnjr] 15/8/2022 16:57

"Key Investor Maddison Ave....."

Just another short term opportunistic Fund by the look of it. Their website says virtually zilch about anything.

"Madison Avenue Partners, LP is an opportunistic, value-oriented investment manager.
Our partners include leading university endowments, hospital systems, and philanthropic foundations. We benefit from a long-term orientation and a flexible, global mandate. We are passionate about our craft."

All we know is TLW/CNE deal announced 1/6/2022 and at that time Maddison appeared to hold zero CNE shares. Their 1st filing appears to have been 05/07/2022 when they popped up on the radar with a 4.65% holding at roughly the same time BoAML's holding dropped c.21% to c.14%.

[waldron] 15/8/2022 16:43

Early Debt repayment might be subject to a timetable and or penalties

As are oil hedging contracts

[mcsean2164] 15/8/2022 16:34

I sincerely hope they exit the deal. It boggles my mind why tullow doesn't buy it's debt at reduced bond prices....

[badger36] 15/8/2022 12:29

Guess they spending their time fire fighting the backlash on the Capricorn proposals Never going through and the dismal performance on drilling and mistimed and poorly advised disposal Guess even by paying exorbitant salaries you still get mediocrity. Time now to stop saying "it was a mess when we found it"Embarrassing

[fizzmiss] 15/8/2022 08:44

Told ya, everything Raul does is not in the best interests of his employers, us.

He has been Toxic for the share price and the company since he arrived. RESIGN!!!

PS,
Where is Waldo?

[franky15] 14/8/2022 21:02

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Its-Time-For-An-Oil-And-Gas-Boom-In-Africa.html

[fizzmiss] 14/8/2022 15:07

Raul is doing a great job in difficult circumstances? ARF ARF ARF!


Raul is a Turnip; RESIGN!

[badger36] 11/8/2022 14:16

Maybe Fizz is not altogether wrong then

[xxnjr] 11/8/2022 12:02

Chevron set to enter coveted block offshore Namibia

"Upstream understands the US supermajor is close to farming into a high-potential Orange basin acreage

US super major Chevron is set to take a majority stake in a highly coveted block offshore Namibia, just north of TotalEnergies’ huge Venus discovery, according to multiple sources.

Upstream understands that a farm-in deal covering what is probably one of the most sought-after licenses in the Orange basin has almost been wrapped up and is due to be announced shortly.

If confirmed, the transaction will mark Chevron’s first entry into southern Africa since its aborted foray into South Africa’s nascent onshore shale gas play some years ago."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You couldn't make this up! The block immediately to the North of the huge Venus discovery is the one TLW [56%] gave up just before Total drilled Venus. Has to rank as one of the E&P worlds most incomprehensible decisions!

Edit: It's actually worse than I thought.

Total started drilling the well on, or before 1st Dec 2021.


TLW Annual Report "In January 2022, Tullow also exited the PEL 90 licence in Namibia."

Total announced massive discovery on 24th Feb 2022.

[xxnjr] 11/8/2022 11:42

Sanctions have “limited impact” on Russian oil output since the start of the war in Ukraine, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, as it raised its forecast for Russian crude production into 2023.

Moscow’s exports of crude and oil products to Europe, US, Japan and Korea had fallen by nearly 2.2mn barrels a day since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Paris-based group said. But the rerouting of flows to countries including India, China and Turkey had mitigated financial losses for the Kremlin.

Russian oil production in July was only 310,000 b/d below prewar levels, a fall of less than 3 per cent, while total oil exports were down about 580,000 b/d, according to the IEA’s latest monthly oil report. As a result, Russia would have generated $19bn in oil export revenues last month, and $21bn in June, the IEA’s data showed.

“Asian buyers have stepped in to take advantage of cheap crude,” the IEA said, with China having overtaken the EU as the biggest importer of Russian crude in June.

Increased demand for Russian crude compared with earlier in the year also meant that the discounts being paid for Russian cargoes had narrowed, it said.

Although an EU embargo on Russian crude and products — due to come into full effect in February 2023 — would result in further declines in European imports, “some policymakers have suggested a possible softening of measures”, it added.

Last month, the EU loosened its restrictions on supplying Russian oil to countries outside of the bloc. Meanwhile, the US is pushing G7 countries to support a price cap mechanism that would allow some Russian oil to reach third countries as long as they agreed to pay a below-market price for the cargo.

In response, the IEA said it had increased its Russian production forecast for the second half of 2022 by 500,000 b/d and by 800,000 b/d for 2023.

The revised Russian outlook came as the IEA also increased its global oil demand forecast for 2022 by 380,000 b/d, despite signs of an economic slowdown.

Record European prices for natural gas following the invasion had spurred “substantial” gas-to-oil switching for power generation that is set to boost crude consumption for the rest of the year even as demand growth from other parts of the economy slows.

“These extraordinary gains, overwhelmingly concentrated in the Middle East and Europe, mask relative weakness in other sectors, but will propel demand higher by 2.1mn b/d to 99.7mn b/d in 2022 and by a further 2.1mn b/d to 101.8mn b/d in 2023,” the IEA said.

Oil use for power generation has also been pushed higher by increased electricity demand due to the global heatwave, which has seen temperatures hit record levels in some parts of the world, including the UK. Oil burning has soared in Saudi Arabia and Iraq but also increased in Portugal, UK, Spain, Germany and Italy, it said.

The EU’s commitment to reduce member countries’ gas consumption by 15 per cent from August 2022 to March 2023 will continue to increase oil demand by roughly 300,000 b/d for the next six quarters, the IEA added.

[xxnjr] 11/8/2022 07:53

off Topic

Someone barged into this discussion with the following on the 8th Aug

"SEPL

MAJOR NEWS RELEASE AT 5pm

Will tripple its reserve and output

Tomorrows runner"
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Just had a look. Since that RNS has lost 11.5%

[xxnjr] 11/8/2022 07:15

Exactly the same statement as in their Q1 Report.

[alfiex] 11/8/2022 06:17

From Africa oilIn 2021, the Company and its partners initiated a farm-out process for Project Oil Kenya. Advanced discussions are on-going with the interested parties. A successful farm-out is viewed by the Company as a critical step towards the FID for Project Oil Kenya being achieved over the course of the next year. There is no guarantee that the Company can successfully conclude a farm-out to new strategic partner(s) on favorable terms.

[badger36] 10/8/2022 16:50

They must oust the BOD so

[xxnjr] 10/8/2022 16:00

Don't think the deal will go through. PI's only hold about 7% of CNE. Half of those probably wont even vote. Leaving hedgies and insti's controlling 93% of 96.5% possible votes. Those against (hedgies) probably control >25%. Don't see how it can go through unless Kenya is offloaded first for at least $500m.

[billy_buffin] 10/8/2022 13:47

Palliser dead against

[badger36] 09/8/2022 12:04

Should have thought he would be happy to have competency handling all that cash

[xxnjr] 09/8/2022 07:05

And who leaked their letter to Bloomberg? CNE, TLW or guess who?.....

[waldron] 09/8/2022 06:48

Capricorn Investor Seeks to End Tullow Deal, Push for New Review

Scott Deveau, Bloomberg News




(Bloomberg) -- One of the largest shareholders in Capricorn Energy Plc is urging the oil and gas producer to call off its proposed merger with Tullow Oil Plc and instead run a more thorough strategic review that could create better value for investors.

Palliser Capital UK Ltd., which owns more than 5% of Capricorn, argued in a letter to the company’s board Tuesday that the terms of the deal ascribe no value the company’s non-cash assets and amount to a “nil-premium” takeover rather than the merger-of-equals it was billed as.

Palliser Chief Investment Officer James Smith said he strongly believes Capricorn is worth at least 330 pence per share, or roughly 50% higher than where its shares traded Monday and 67% more than the proposed takeover price. As a result, he argued the proposed merger amounts to giving away more than $500 million in value, or roughly two-thirds of Capricorn’s market value.

“Every day that the board fails to take action serves only to exacerbate the level of value destruction that Capricorn shareholders are faced with,” Smith said in the letter, a copy of which was reviewed by Bloomberg. London-based Palliser was founded last year by Smith, a former executive at activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

Representatives for Capricorn and Tullow didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment by email and phone.

Tullow agreed to buy Capricorn in June in an all-stock deal that values the combined company at roughly 1.5 billion pounds ($1.9 billion), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The companies said at the time the transaction would open up opportunities to expand across Africa.

Smith noted that two-thirds of Capricorn’s net asset value is in cash and near-term receivables. As such, the purchase price ascribes no value to its Western Desert assets in Egypt, which were purchased less than a year ago for $323 million, he said.

A lifeline

He argued that the merger would exclusively benefit Tullow and be a “lifeline̶1; to the company and its creditors by providing it with access to Capricorn’s cash on a deeply discounted basis. Tullow is also a company that just last year was warning investors about its future given its chronic underperformance, the abrupt departure of its senior management team and a subsequent “fire sale” of assets to avoid insolvency, he added.

Smith questioned the other aspects of the deal, including the $50 million in synergies the companies said they would achieve. He argues that the bulk of those synergies would come from reducing administrative costs through the downsizing of Capricorn’s head office, and that merging with Tullow would hurt Capricorn’s environmental record by shifting the combined portfolio toward oil.

Smith said he didn’t believe the current terms would be approved by Capricorn’s shareholders and that Tullow is not likely to meaningfully increase the purchase price.

“We believe that the best way forward is for you, the members of the Capricorn board, to immediately withdraw your recommendation for the proposed merger and instead to initiate a transparent and meaningful strategic review,” Smith said. Any such review should be benchmarked against the value that could be created in the near-term by selling its Egyptian assets and returning cash to its shareholders, he added.

[ctc1] 09/8/2022 06:37

Is that right, held no shares before deal announced, typical opportunistic hedge fund.