Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 09/8/2022 06:31

"A value oriented investment philosophy is applied to a broad range of opportunities across the capital structure where complexity or distress lead to undervaluation that can be monetised through an effort-intensive process or proprietary catalyst."

Palliser Capital sound like a hedge fund. Held zero shares when deal announced. And only started buying about 1 week after that. Last time I looked >92% of CNE's shares were with insti's and hedgies.

[oilandgasman1] 08/8/2022 22:49

SEPLMAJOR NEWS RELEASE AT 5pmWill tripple its reserve and outputTomorrows runner

[subsurface] 08/8/2022 22:46

Thanks for the update XX,hope your day out went well,
I will view tomorrow,hope the Enyenra drill goes to plan.


Africa Oil results out on Wednesday.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 22:38

It went very well thanks SS. it is my local patch. Ancient +2000yr old rights of way on the chalk ridges. Hardly a soul to be seen. Except in the pubs.

[subsurface] 08/8/2022 22:27

Thanks for the update XX,hope your day out went well,
I will view tomorrow,hope the Enyenra drill goes to plan.


Africa Oil results out on Wednesday.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 22:24

Had a very quick high speed listen. Seems the 2nd rig is off the agenda for now. Don't really need it to deliver JSE. I've always believed 2nd rig was dependent on TEN work load (i.e finding some more oil to develop). But in the meantime rig rates have doubled making 2nd rig an expensive option and what resources can be developed at TEN is a question as yet unanswered by the drillbit. Good news the well being drilled now is Enyenra Producer. Fingers crossed that comes in.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 21:56

Did you listen to the K webcast SS. I've just got back in. Looking at their pres. Slide 4 a few extra snippets

• Jubilee gross production averaged ~92,000
bopd in 2Q excluding the impact of the two
week shut down
– Planned shut down completed in May
▪ Key objectives achieved and successful
completion of over 100 work scopes
▪ Project tie ins completed for expansion
later in the year
– One water injector and one producer well
completed and online in 2Q
• TEN gross production of ~24,000 bopd in 2Q
– One producer well currently being drilled
in Enyenra: expected to add production in
4Q
– First of two Ntomme riser base wells
drilled in 2Q with the objective of
supporting the delineation of the
Ntomme resource
▪ The well, drilled at a structural low,
was water bearing but encountered
better than expected reservoir
▪ Second well planned for late-2022

Slide 5 Jubilee SE

• ~40% complete with long lead items ordered
• Drilling expected to commence in the fourth quarter
• All riser tie-ins were completed during the recent FPSO shut down
• Initial production expected mid-2023
• Targeting increase in gross production to ~100,000 bopd

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 08:19

I'll be on my mountain bike in the Purbeck's. Shouldn't be allowed at my age!

[subsurface] 08/8/2022 08:14

webcast link

Kosmos will host a conference call and webcast to discuss second quarter 2022 financial and operating results today at 10:00 a.m. Central time (11:00 a.m. Eastern time).

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 07:57

Thommie - About 30 days on NT-10. 17 days on current well so far. (also a water inj was completed in South Enyenra; about 7 days)

Imagine the 30 days would have included p&a'ing it, unless they left it 'open' for potential future use as a water injector. Current well maybe Gas appraisal, or possibly Enyenra if they are trying to extend that to East. I'm kind of thinking Gas.

Rig efficiency means JSE 1st oil gets accelerated.

Off Topic: good news on TXP.

[thommie] 08/8/2022 07:33

Finding water in der good reservoir quality seems to be the the sentence of the month... You can only hope that they find oil updip. But im still stunned how fast they drilled this strategic well at ntomme? Cant have been too cost intensive?If I remember right your ship following suggested that the rig didnt stay long at the ntomme position?

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 06:59

Excellent news on Jubilee. JSE 40% complete! Shame about the TEN well but these 2 N'tomme riser wells were more like exploration wells.

[xxnjr] 08/8/2022 06:49

Kosmos Update

Ghana

Production in Ghana averaged approximately 31,600 barrels of oil per day (bopd) net in the second quarter of 2022. Kosmos lifted three cargos from Ghana during the quarter, in line with guidance.

At Jubilee, production averaged approximately 73,600 bopd gross during the quarter, which includes the impact of the planned floating, production, storage and offloading vessel ("FPSO") shutdown. Excluding the planned shutdown, Jubilee production averaged approximately 92,000 bopd gross in the second quarter. At TEN, production averaged approximately 23,600 bopd gross for the second quarter. High reliability of the Ghana production facilities continues, as well as high levels of water injection and gas offtake by the Government of Ghana. As the operator recently communicated, drilling performance has been excellent with wells coming in ahead of schedule and under budget. During the second quarter, the Jubilee FPSO underwent a planned two-week shut down for routine maintenance and facility upgrades. The key objectives for the shut down were achieved, including facility upgrades necessary to tie-in the Jubilee Southeast wells that are expected to increase production from mid-2023. Production has remained strong since the Jubilee FPSO restarted operations, with a second quarter exit rate of over 90,000 bopd gross.

The Jubilee Southeast development continues to progress and is now approximately 40% complete. Long-lead items necessary for the project have been ordered and drilling is expected to begin in the fourth quarter with initial production expected around mid-2023. The partnership expects the new wells to increase gross production in the field to ~100,000 bopd.

At TEN, the partnership drilled the first of the two riser base wells (NT-10) to initially define the extent of the Ntomme reservoir supporting the TEN Enhancement Project. The well was drilled to test two separate reservoir objectives and encountered better reservoir quality and thickness than expected but was water bearing. A second well (NT-11) is currently being planned to target a different fairway in a structurally higher setting. The results of the two wells will allow the partnership to high-grade and optimize the future drilling plans for the TEN Enhancement Project.

[subsurface] 06/8/2022 22:24

Kenya,
The incumbent president has served two terms and has to stand down Ruto is his deputy.
so must be up to speed with the Oil discussions perhaps that is an advantage for the players.

If you look at the bigger picture Tullow could end up indirectly responsible for people having to be removed from the land they own or forced to sell,and lots of other issues around who owns what? and who has bought to sell on at a profit.
this could take years to sort out.

Security issues are another problem. and Water usage

Tullow did well to find the Oil in place but poor Risk management in my opinion.
they did not think things through!.

Once Kenya is sorted Tullow will look a much better company in my opinion.

[xxnjr] 06/8/2022 21:58

Alfiex - there are 3 potential share price catalysts in the near/medium term

1. TEN drilling
2. Kenya
3. CNE deal deleveraging balance sheet.

1. is not to be underestimated as turning TEN around is crucial to arresting decline there which so far has cancelled out the good work done on Jubilee. I really do hope TLW's geoscience understanding is correct and the TEN wells come in.

[xxnjr] 06/8/2022 21:41

no worries. you are welcome Alfiex/Thommie.

Only been to Africa once. Senegal. The people there were great. Incredibly warm and hospitable. Always with a smile. It's kind of sad people in Africa generally have to put up with rubbish leaders and endemic corruption. Hopefully will get better eventually but you have to feel for their plight.

Agree offloading Kenya for cash and royalties makes perfect sense. Debt is a negative in todays environment. Anything that reduces net debt is good.

[thommie] 06/8/2022 18:43

Thx for your input xxnjr!I just had a quick look about some information about the upcoming kenya election.80% of ppl are not older than 34 years!Nearly nobody goes voting, as none believes anything what their corrupt politicians say. Odinga vs Ruto it is.They pay everyone that attends their election speeches with between 1,5-8€. Ppl go there, cheer for them to receive money to buy sth to eat, but hate the candidates. LOL...After reading just a few articles about the ever ongoing corruption I really got a clue what took tullow so long doing a FID for Kenya...I got the impression it would be the best just to sell the whole stake for whatever is offered, just to get out. Puh...

[alfiex] 06/8/2022 17:07

Lets hope the Kenya deal goes through then. Also Capricorn should help with debt problem.Maybe worth keeping for anothe 6 months to see what happens.Thanks xxnjr

[xxnjr] 06/8/2022 13:33

Alfiex - Haven't seen it.

3bn.....
$$$$$$ I presume?

Less Debt at y/end 2021 $2.13bn

Leaves $870m

Current share price 52p = MCap £750m = $900m

Not even a premium to todays share price

Unless I've got that wrong which is entirely possible.

Or putting it another way.
Why would an acquirer pay $3bn for something which has an Mcap of $900m?

You could argue a Kenya deal would increase the market cap - but not by $2.1bn.

[alfiex] 06/8/2022 12:50

xxnjr there is a lot of chatter on other site saying that India could buy tullow outright for 3bn and have ghana and guyana and kenya, whats your thoughts on that?

[xxnjr] 06/8/2022 12:14

Thommie - "If recent articles are right in assuming that the farm in WI of the Indiana consortium is expected to be worth between 2-3billion that would be a much higher amount than I would have ever thought it's worth!"

I tend to agree. Unless I'm mistaken

TLW sold 1/3rd of Uganda 1,700 bbls Gross = 567 net of 2C for $575m
or about $1/bbl

If TLW sold all their 50% of Kenya 560 bbls Gross = 280 net of 2C = $280m @ $1/bbl

OK when we sold Uganda; TLW was weak, OP was weak.

Even so. Negotiations for entire Kenya 50% stake sale probably in $300m to $600m range?
Plus royalties on price and production as per Uganda.

Above numbers exclude any post sale Gov back in rights.

[xxnjr] 06/8/2022 11:03

Just to close that chapter. Towing operation started this morning. Rig + 2 Tugs now about 20km NW of drill site and headed back to Trinidad where its next job is. Suspect that is the last we will ever hear of Kanuka Block, Guyana.

[mcsean2164] 05/8/2022 14:38

Nice finish, pretty annoyed by the two threads for tullow. Is it possible they could be merged?