Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 11/1/2020 10:41

Got to look at wehat the money is doing prior to the data sarki

Its all retail bud. Any bounce coming in is retail

That means the funds have only one thing on their minds. Hit it or not bother with it

[sentimentrules] 11/1/2020 10:17

Week closed negative

Shorters will be seeing massive value here. Considering price divergence from general sector, they will look at the value in share price , relative to simple things like moneyflow divergence rel to sector - all sorts of stuff - see its trading negative despite the postive divergences - and look to slam dunk it. Basic stuff

Only a positive rns / data, can stop 39p now

And it needs to blow everything out of the water. Maybe found an ocean of quality crude somewherer, and the bedrock is gold

[sarkasm] 11/1/2020 09:33

Tullow Oil counts on research to avert conflicts in Turkana
The research will also look into the firm's relation with various state agencies in Kenya and factors that may hurt the firm's margins before making an investment decision
In Summary

SCL plans to conduct a series of studies looking into the Tullow's past and ongoing activities in Turkana with the aim of designing an elaborate operation plan
In August last year, Petroleum principal secretary Andrew Kamau told journalists that the project had incurred Sh50 million in delay costs

President Uhuru Kenyatta flanked by Deputy President William Ruto flags off the crude oil trucks during the Inauguration of the Ngamia 8 Early Oil Pilot Scheme , Turkana County./PSCU
President Uhuru Kenyatta flanked by Deputy President William Ruto flags off the crude oil trucks during the Inauguration of the Ngamia 8 Early Oil Pilot Scheme , Turkana County./PSCU

British oil explorer Tullow Oil has enlisted services of research experts SCL Group to steer it into smoother waters in Kenya's operations ahead of planned commercial production in 2024.

The data analysis firm, according to a proposal seen by the Star is expected to conduct a series of studies looking into Tullow's past and ongoing activities in Turkana with the aim of designing an elaborate operation plan to inform decisions on commercial operations.

The oil firm has experienced several operational hitches since it discovered oil in Turkana in 2012, mostly hostility from the local community over revenue sharing modalities and local content.



In August last year, Petroleum principal secretary Andrew Kamau told journalists that the project had incurred Sh50 million in delay costs.

This was after the firm was forced to halt operations for more than a month following a standoff between the government and the Turkana community over revenue allocation structure and local content.

They had demanded a total revenue allocation of 30 per cent: 20 per cent to counties and 10 per cent to community and the remaining to the national government.

However, a sharing formula of 70: 25: 5 ratio for the national government, county and community was struck.

''Tullow needs to understand how best to engage positively with its host communities and keep the Kenyan government on the side whilst avoiding entanglement in domestic politics, all of which must be achieved to ensure the long-term attractiveness of the projects it is developing,'' SCL said.

Once the analysis has been completed, SCL will create a written report and a power-point presentation detailing a summary of the results of the field research, as well as a full evaluation of Tullow Oil's, government and other stakeholders’ existing programmes and strategic focus, pointing out areas of success and failures.

It will also give reasons why and how implementation can be improved in a local content action plan with an associated communications campaign.



The research will also look into the firm's relationships with various state agencies in Kenya and factors that may hurt the firm's margins before making an investment decision.

In June, the British multinational pushed its target for making the critical Final Investment Decision to 2020 after it emerged that, among other issues, the Nema had delayed its issuance of licenses for the planned Sh10 billion oil pipeline from Turkana to Lamu.

The study which is expected to take more than 100 days will compliment another ongoing on by Lundin, an indication that Tullow Oil is not taking any chance in its quest to have a share of Kenya's Sh500 billion oil project.

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 23:00

Tryin to say it's not in the top 5 most shorted in Europe?

[leoneobull] 10/1/2020 22:37

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0001500809/LOL SR. do sleep well.

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 21:05

you guys do realise that tullow is is in the top 5 of European shorts in oil and gas sector

EUROPE

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 19:17

maybe then the 1 penny buyers will get to 2p

[leoneobull] 10/1/2020 18:46

When the Uganda announcement comes....and I have no idea when, the two penny shorters are going to get royally Meghaned

[leoneobull] 10/1/2020 18:38

December 31st Ugandan press The exact details of the Museveni-Pouyanné discussions remain scanty. But once the exact details are fined tuned, it is expected the decision will be communicated publicly in the coming days, signaling, a move forward to close the Tullow farm down (sales) transaction, and conclude the remaining commercial agreements for the proposed East African Crude Oil Pipeline, leading to Final Investment Decision (FID).Final Investment Decision is an agreement on capital investments on a long term project, when money for the project is availed and project execution commences.https://www.monitor.co.ug/Business/Prosper/Oil-disputes-push-Museveni-into-concessions-/688616-5403002-2f0b2o/index.html

[sentimentrules] 10/1/2020 17:38

Well well now

bulls all excited? Bears on a winner

fail to understand how market does it

aggregate price down over periods, and excite holders even more

[maturo] 10/1/2020 17:08

INTERESTING

on the way down the UT is always lower than the spread or offer price - like the last 3 days
on the way up the UT is higher than the spread - like today

[stupmy] 10/1/2020 17:08

You too waldron.

[waldron] 10/1/2020 17:07

chuckle

now call it right for thursday and next weeks close o wise one

in the meantime relax and enjoy a luverly weekend


waldron
10 Jan '20 - 17:02 - 39599 of 39600 Edit
0 0 0
it did close at 59p
Stupmy
10 Jan '20 - 17:03 - 39600 of 39600
0 0 0
Are you saying I called it right again? I'm on fire.

[stupmy] 10/1/2020 17:03

Are you saying I called it right again? I'm on fire.

[waldron] 10/1/2020 17:02

it did close at 59p

[stupmy] 10/1/2020 16:55

I'm hopeful here, a close at 59 would be great. Just have to wait and see.

[waldron] 10/1/2020 16:54

Price (GBX) 59.00 Var % (+/-) +7.66% (Up +4.20)

High 59.62 Low 54.80

Volume 15,586,905 Last close 59.00 on 10-Jan-2020


Bid 58.88 Offer 58.94

Trading status Closing Price Crossing Special conditions NONE


just cannot get passed 60p convincingly

roll on jan 15th

[waldron] 10/1/2020 16:51

CERTAINLY INTERESTED IN WHO MIGHT TAKEOVER TULLOW

Perhaps reasonable bargain for predator at twice the price

next week hopefully will confirm just that

[waldron] 10/1/2020 16:45

Guyana oil discovery does little to bolster Tullow
An unwanted hat-trick of underwhelming oil finds fail to alleviate the whiff of crisis around troubled independent
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Hopes of salvaging Anglo-Irish independent Tullow Oil’s turbulent 2019 and preventing further downward share price pressure in 2020 were heavily dependent on the company’s third and final Guyana offshore drill target of last year—the first well to test both the Kanuku block and the Cretaceous play. Numerous light oil discoveries already made by ExxonMobil within the Cretaceous of neighbouring block Stabroek only added to the expectancy.

But while Spain’s Repsol, the operator with a 37.5pc stake, alongside partners Tullow (37.5pc) and Total (25pc), announced an oil discovery at the Carapa-1 well—the third from three wells now drilled in Guyana by Tullow—the preliminary results raised doubts about the potential commerciality of the prospect.
“We are encouraged to find good quality oil which proves the extension of the prolific Cretaceous play into our acreage” MacFarlane, Tullow

Unlike the high-sulphur discoveries at Jethro and Joe, both in the Orinduik block, rig site testing from Carapa-1 well revealed sulphur content at less than 1pc and crude quality of 27° API. But despite the lighter crude, net oil pay was much lower than projected, at only 4m versus an average of c.50m from the 14 discoveries made by ExxonMobil in the Cretaceous play of Stabroek, according to research from US bank Jefferies.

A Tullow statement also raised concerns about the quality of the sandstone reservoir. “While net pay and reservoir development at this location are below our pre-drill estimates, we are encouraged to find good quality oil which proves the extension of the prolific Cretaceous play into our acreage,” said Mark MacFarlane, chief operating officer at Tullow. The statement noticeably failed to describe its commercial potential.

Details of the oil discovery plunged the company’s share price by over 10pc in early trading on 2 January before stabilising at just below 60p/share by close of day, a level below which it remained by 10 January, having twice flirted with breaking below 55p/share earlier in the week. Tullow’s share price was routed in late 2019, falling by over 80pc between November and December from a peak of 217p/share.
Troubled waters

Tullow’s African portfolio—the company’s primary production base—suffered recurrent problems and project delays throughout 2019, compounding the significance of a successful drilling campaign in Guyana.

Reduced gas offtake from anchor customer Ghana National Gas Company, as well as increased water cut on some wells, saw Tullow reduce production guidance for its Jubilee field by 2,500bl/d oe across 2019. And this may be only the start of a Jubilee associated gas problem for Tullow.

Higher gas re-injection now will only mean a higher proportion of associated gas in the field’s output as it matures. Tullow is anticipating this—it plans to expand the gas export capacity of the Jubilee floating production storage and offloading vessel beyond its present 160mn ft³/d. But that does not solve the problem of who will buy this increased gas volume. No buyer could then start limiting even further Tullow’s ability to produce Jubilee oil.
$1.3bn – free cashflow 2017-19

At Enyenra, one of Ghana’s TEN fields, mechanical issues drove another production downgrade, while the field’s natural decline is also expected to be faster than previously thought. Overall TEN production was cut by 10,000bl/d oe across 2019.

Tullow had also aimed to finalise its Uganda project farm-down with partners Total and China’s Cnooc, but a tax dispute with the government prevented the deal and led the firm to postpone FID. The company’s South Lokichar project in Kenya is now also unlikely to take FID until into the second half of 2020.

Tullow ultimately lowered its 2019 full-year production guidance from 89,000-93,000bl/d oe to an expected 87,000bl/d oe—resulting in the swift departure of both CEO Paul McDade and exploration director Angus McCoss. Between 2017-19 the company averaged production of c.84,000bl/d at an oil price of around $63/bl, helping to generate $1.3bn in free cashflow. In 2020, the company is projecting production of 70,000-80,000bl/d oe, around half of what Jefferies predicted Tullow would be producing when it made its forecast five years ago.

In the immediate term, Jefferies identifies completing the Uganda farm-down and a high oil price as the most important factors in sustaining Tullow’s free cash flow (FCF). If the farm-down is concluded in 2020 and oil averages $50/bl then cumulative FCF would reach $693mn. Crude at $70/bl would lift this figure to c.$1.15bn.

A repeat of ExxonMobil’s Guyana drilling successes would have boosted Tullow’s future production and FCF outlooks. And the firm is unlikely to give up despite its initial underwhelming result. While the volumes may have disappointed, the well does prove that good quality, low sulphurous oil from the deepwater Stabroek block’s Cretaceous play does extend into shallower water acreage, thus encouraging further drilling. In September, then CEO McDade foresaw at least three new Guyana wells in 2020.

Canada-listed Eco Atlantic, a partner with Tullow in the Orinduik block, is also reviewing multiple prospects for a 2020 drilling campaign. “The newly learned results on Orinduik and the results from the Carapa well currently being drilled in shallow water on Repsol’s adjacent Kanuku Block, just south of the Orinduik, will greatly assist in our interpretation and selection of future drilling targets,” says Gil Holzman, CEO and co-founder of Eco Atlantic.

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 16:41

waldron

I am talking about posting here not selling today
It seems is a long road for you being a long term holder
nice weekend to you

[master rsi] 10/1/2020 16:37

16:35:05 - UT at 59p with 2.4M shares, was above offer price