Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[charlesjames1] 11/12/2019 07:29

You may well get it at some point. Funds will always sell down. Just on the divi cancellation alone. Usual scaremongering nonsense here.

[zingerburger] 11/12/2019 07:27

Woke up expecting surge to 70p today

[charlesjames1] 11/12/2019 07:26

Pretty much all Oiler’s are dependant on oil price. So your point is don’t bother to rate any of them. Shops are dependent on how the economy is doing and whether people spend. Let’s not rate the big FTSE retailers either.

[the stinger] 11/12/2019 07:24

80 and 60p Target prices which usually are 1/2 years ahead assuming no other issues. II's bailing out into any rise now, PI's getting sucked in for them to bail out!, I'm out today in the 50p range which is a few pence less than the Berenberge TP. This will be at 20p if any sniff of further bad news.

50p today and out.

[bigsi2] 11/12/2019 07:20

How can you issue a target price of 105p when Tullow value is FULLY dependent on oil pricebroker coverage and notes with fantasy TP - SELL

[wardy333] 11/12/2019 07:12

First holdings RNS will be a few of them no doubt.

[demo trader] 11/12/2019 06:40

g.m.

Panmure has issued a buy note in TLW (45.64P), Target 105p (old target was 260p)

have few at 42p

[subsurface] 11/12/2019 00:55

Carapa was to be a 40 day drill and it started late October,so if on time we must be close.

[5huu] 11/12/2019 00:28

I believe the NAV has now become completely detached from the Share price & Market Cap. Hence there is a lot of upside versus risk. They appeared (at least on the call) to not be considering any disposals at this point (preferring to focus capex towards rectifying the issues). I find it a little strange that if you were to do a Kitchen Sinking announcement such as this, wouldn't you wait until the 3rd and final drill results were in? Particularly when you know a poor follow-up announcement will really put the final nail in the share price (not to mention make the new CEO look a little foolish) Which makes me think they have a good vibe about it (particularly as it's taking some time to complete).

[5huu] 11/12/2019 00:13

Hi Subsurface. TLW's assets though are supported by their reserves which are independently audited. Some of which were Even revised upwards recently. Many with JV partners with deep pockets too. The other point that was interesting on the conference call that was their OPS director was eager to tell the audience his plans to increase the daily production rates (with capex of course) but made the point repeatedly that Dorothy insists that stability and confidence in the business must be their priority, which I'm sure is now fully aligned with the expectations of their lenders.

[subsurface] 11/12/2019 00:04

Hi 5huu
Agree some of the assets may be world class but the problem is monitization circa
17years Uganda to first oil, Kenya another problem.I think to the market they are worth zero until oil flows or we can sell

[subsurface] 10/12/2019 22:10

CEO Jan Arve Haugen of Ghana-focused Aker Energy has resigned,



Dividend

As part of Tullows shared properity they floated on the Ghana exchange the rest is history . Ghana the jewel in the crown! maybe they reinstated the dividend to appease them or for the CEO to save his skin they were after new oil blocks too.
I feel sad for anyone long term and who may rely on the dividend,

They have to sort out the gas issue as Eni are take or pay I suspect they back out Tullows free gas so they can use Eni gas production ???



It feels like we have gone full circle over the last 20 years.

We need a very good CEO well respected/ with good turn aroud experience a CEO who the Banks and big investors trust.who knows the oil business.

[5huu] 10/12/2019 21:53

Tullows assets are world class and even if they do forecast cash flow issues (which is certainly not the guidance), then just like anyone with mortgage payment problems, they may just have to sell a Bentley or two.I listened to the recording of the conference call this evening. I would encourage anyone else considering investing here to do so too. Dorothy certainly has made her expectations clear, one of which is that the company WILL deliver on its promises this time. The announcement (when discussed on the call) smacked of being a real kitchen sinking with forward year daily production rates stated being more like worse case.

[turvart] 10/12/2019 21:51

You mean Motley fool that thinks RIO is running on over 9 PE ratio the trustworthy fundamentalists. LOL

[sapper2476] 10/12/2019 21:43

Motley Fool. Oh yes. Experts. I'll go with my average of 41p and a price just shy of 46p. Tullow Oil shares? I have touched them with a barge pole.

[babbler] 10/12/2019 21:43

Motley fool... That trustworthy site.

[teamwork1] 10/12/2019 21:14

The dividend policy being pursued by Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) has been boggling my mind. Even with debt of $2.95bn, the company employed a "capital returns policy of intending to pay shareholders at least $100m per year."I thought that was plain crazy, as I generally do when a company pays out dividends while shouldering big debt – it's effectively borrowing money to give to shareholders.Sudden haltThe dividend policy came to a halt on Monday, but not for the good reason that Tullow's board had finally seen sense. No, it was down to a shock profit warning as the company slashed production guidance and suspended the dividend, and CEO Paul McDade and exploration director Angus McCoss both resigned.Oil and gas production is now expected to fall by around 20% over the next two years, with free cash flow set to decline to around $150m in 2020, from a 2019 level of $350m. The idea of paying out $100m per year in dividends seemed ill-advised anyway, but it would be insanity to try it when cash flow is plummeting. So, no wonder the dividend has been put on hold, but right now I'd be far more concerned about the impact on Tullow's debt repayment programme.And I'm still puzzled by two things. One is that the firm saw fit to reintroduce dividends so soon after its debt almost brought it to its knees. And I can't figure out how Tullow couldn't have seen this latest catastrophe coming a little earlier.Production woesI know the firm has been hit by unprecedented production problems this year at its TEN and Jubilee oil fields in Ghana, but those things happen in oil exploration, and I think a company in that business should focus on getting its balance sheet as defensive as possible.I think the Tullow board has served shareholders badly this year, and the departure of McDade and McCoss is probably an appropriate response. But where does that leave us now?Tullow came too close to going bust during the oil price crash, and that spectre is surely looming on the horizon once again. At the halfway point at 30 June, Tullow reported gearing of 1.8 times. Six months prior to that, gearing stood at 1.9 times, and a year prior it was up at 2 times. So it's been coming down, but only at a glacial pace – and that was at previous cash flow levels. At least the company has no near-term debt maturities, so that might provide a bit of breathing space.Cash strapped?Now that cash flow is set to be severely reduced, I really can see gearing heading back in the wrong direction again. My Motley Fool colleague Roland Head suggests that Tullow could be forced into a new round of fundraising, after having raised $750m in 2017's rights issue, and I think he's likely to be right.Tullow Oil was slowly pulling itself out of the mire, albeit with a badly misguided (in my view) dividend policy. But the recovery has come to a sticky halt and we could see it getting sucked back in again over the next couple of years.Tullow Oil shares? I wouldn't go within a mile of them.© 1998 – 2019 The Motley Fool. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool, Fool, and the Fool logo are registered trademarks of The Motley Fool Holdings Inc.The Motley Fool Ltd. Registered Office: 5 New Street Square, London EC4A 3TW.Registered in England & Wales. Company No: 3736872. VAT Number: 188035783.BATS 100 Index provided by ?

[sam_] 10/12/2019 21:01

From Malcom Graham-Wood, Macy's Blog.


Making a few comments on Orinduik though necessitates mention of Tullow (TLW) as with consummate irony it now looks to me that the company is going to have to knuckle down and start delivering in Guyana as it is now probably the part of the portfolio with most upside. That is rubber stamped by the fact that Ian Cloke, EVP, New Ventures remains at his desk as he is the Guyana supremo thus proving that point, all of a sudden Orinduik is the jewel in the crown across the company…

[For the Orinduik JV] it is very much business as usual with...further assessments of the mapping of the wells which will be done as soon as the Carapa-1 well result comes in. The well is still drilling but indications are that it might also be a success, it has been drilling for longer than you might expect if it was a duster and didn’t get a mention [by Tullow] yesterday. Should this well come in it would be another massive validation of the area for all concerned. If there is oil there the chances of Orinduik being full of oil suddenly just got a lot better, after all with Carapa being closer to shore that would make Hammerhead, Jethro and Joe look properly pleasing.

[sbb1x] 10/12/2019 20:52

Only a 14.3% rise today, market mafia couldn't take it much more after that criminal fall yesterday.! But tomorrow is another day and could see a 10 - 15 % rise tomorrow ... Double bagger from these levels in next 12 months.Hold for gold and watch the rerate happen.

[sbb1x] 10/12/2019 20:47

I just asked mystic meg and she tells me oil is going to 100$ a barrel. Lol.Production forecast lowered as a pending sale of a field ?

[hermana3] 10/12/2019 20:38

Give me a quid toute suite!

[teamwork1] 10/12/2019 20:22

I think 80p

[sapper2476] 10/12/2019 19:52

Lets get past 50p first.

[middlesboroughfc] 10/12/2019 19:49

70p tomorrow

[whites123] 10/12/2019 19:33

teamwork110 Dec '19 - 18:36 - 36941 of 36944
0 0 0
U guys make me laugh, it will be long time before you see 1 pound

Really?
Please do enlighten as to why.

Oil rising (Opec cuts and Aramaco listing will ensure Saudis aim to protect)
2 to 3 years worst case scenario of 75000 bopd based on what we were told a few days ago.
All to play for in increasing production (Fix mechanical rig faults etc)
Numerous assets available for sale and any single one could be used to either fund exploration or reduce debt.
No near term debt maturities.
> $1 Billion headroom.
Possibility TLW secure heavyweight CEO.
Results from Drills due.
Results regards commercial viability due.
Uganda tax implications agreed favourably to TLW

Some of you guys make me wonder what drives you. I could carry the list on and on listing so many possible positives. Whilst you guys who for some strange reason want to see people lose money can only make up scenarios... Your favourite one being "$3 Billion debt".... Well ahah... yes... We know that and we knew that last year as well, and its serviceable even at reduced worst case output.
I am all for listening to substantive reasonings and there are some good posters I am warming to already, even though one of them insists on picking up my glaring errors, or should I say istakes.. LOL... and the other one who puts me on ignore and then unblocks me... Then there are people of your calibre... One line know it alls..OOPS, Im being nasty now.. sorry