Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 24/4/2019 16:34

Bootycall thank you for your reply I have been in Tullow 18 years its been quite a ride, If the Company and its shareholders have not done very well due to extenuating circumstances Why should the management be rewarded?.
I think Tullow tried to grow too fast and failed to fully manage Risks maybe problems with due diligence too. Uganda No CGT/pay up!
I half expected the other partner to follow Kosmos
I guess it is time to draw a line under the past The future starts tomorrow we should have lots of news flow for the rest of the year.
thanks again

[mccracken227] 24/4/2019 13:54

Should read agm

[mccracken227] 24/4/2019 13:53

Very confusing this share today, really underperforming against oil price, with gam tomorrow I am wondering if bad news is afoot

[adg] 24/4/2019 12:30

Thank you - very enlightening post!

[alfiex] 24/4/2019 10:33

Good to get the upside booty, thanks

[bootycall] 24/4/2019 10:14

subsurface. I see your views are well supported on this board. Factually you are correct but you have missed out on the extenuating circumstances.
Firstly, the model of applying for new licences in new frontiers, proving them up and farming them down has worked well for the best part of a hundred years. This all changed with the US shale revolution and the collapse of the oil price.Mergers and acquisitions totally dried up. The share price of virtually every single E&P collapsed over the same period. Tullow looked as though it was well positioned because of the well productivity of Jubilee and Ten, but then the Ivory Coast government decided to grab a piece of the action with the ITLOS dispute. This is what is known in investing as a “black swan” event. Relations between Ivory Coast and Ghana had been stable for a long time before and Tullow were in no way culpable for this development. The Company was acutely aware of the huge cost of the Jubilee and Ten development and had always expected to farm down to reduce debt levels. ITLOS not only hindered farm down negotiations it stopped their optimisation of their key asset and left them with rig capacity they were unable to utilise. The decision to declare force majeure on the Seadrill rig contract was proven incorrect in a court of law but Tullow had been advised that they had a strong case to argue. Normally such a black swan event such as an ITLOS dispute would be bad enough but Tullow had to deal with the fact that the rig market had collapsed preventing the rig from finding alternative work when it was legally ordered to stop drilling. May I point out that it turned out to be a shrewd and calculated move in the circumstances which benefitted all of the partners. Of course, Kosmos were able to argue that owing to procedural lapses they could wriggle out of their share of the bill at Tullows expense. Have you ever asked yourself why the other partners did not adopt the same stance? After the ITLOS dispute was settled Tullow secured a new rig , with extremely flexible terms and a substantially lower day rate. I believe the savings to the consortium were in the many hundreds of millions. Had Tullow honoured the contract in the circumstances the shareholders would have had something to complain about as the Company may have gone bust because of breach of banking covenants. As if that was not bad enough we then had problems with the Turret mooring system on the Jubilee field, although unlike Kosmos ,I believe Tullow had prudently taken out very comprehensive insurance cover which left shareholders fully compensated for this unforeseen event which was once again was not a fault of their making.
I could go on about Shells technical team choosing the location of the unsuccessful wells in French Guyana against the advice of Tullow. I could point out that Tullow managed to successfully emerge from the ITLOS dispute without been seen to take sides and were subsequently rewarded by the Ivory Coast with some great blocks... which they immediately farmed out to Cairn showing a great theoretical profit within a few months.
Then we come to Uganda. Tullow was guilty of good behaviour. Heritage effectively did a runner and left them with the bill. Museveni has continued to frustrate successful exploitation of this field with his demands for a large local refinery. Tullow of course successfully farmed down most of its holding and let CNOOC and Total deal with all the politics. Regarding DRC. Tullow shareholders have in my opinion a perfectly valid legal claim under international law against the parties who confiscated and subsequently rewarded our licence block to Caprikat and Foxwhelp. Interestingly the Financial Times reported that a Mr Dan Gertler, a businessman close to the Congolese President,is involved in one of these two companies, which apparently had no known track record in the oil industry. I will let posters draw their own conclusions about what happened but I do not see what Tullow could have done in the circumstances.
I make no qualms about saying that I am supportive of the management team at Tullow. Owing to many of the issues highlighted above, the Company has had to prioritise debt reduction over building up reserves in the last four years. In doing so it has carefully retained and added to an exciting prospect inventory which should reward shareholders longer term.

[mccracken227] 24/4/2019 07:55

billvernon, if you had them and we're on register 4/5 April you will get dividend in May, provided it is approved at tomorrow's meeting.

[billvernon] 24/4/2019 07:43

being somewhat of a newbie in trading, may i ask...the tlw announced dividend...i've owned my current batch a good 6 months....so, if for example, i were to sell today, will i still get the dividend? or must it be 'approved'
and i must be an owner on the approved date, before i get locked in to getting it. thanks to any responder.

[frontdoor bull] 24/4/2019 06:11

Thanks Alflex.

[newtothisgame3] 24/4/2019 05:57

#ENQ #PMO #TLW #PFC #CNE
North Sea explorers get boost as US clamps down on Iran oil exports

[adg] 23/4/2019 19:14

Tullow-led trio awarded blocks offshore southern Argentina

[alfiex] 23/4/2019 18:55

Frontdoor, should be 25th at general meeting

[frontdoor bull] 23/4/2019 18:14

Has the Divi payment being approved yet.

[subsurface] 23/4/2019 14:34

Some progress in Uganda

[subsurface] 23/4/2019 01:16

Wish you luck,Great to be a short term trader ,that was always my plan when I sold at
20 pounds, just going to buy and sell Tullow we have had lots of opportunities over the years I think it would of worked out well.
The Oil price can move either way quite quickly I think it depends on how quick Other producers take up the slack Saudi need Circa $88 to balance its budget but we always have the Trump factor to contend with.
The good thing is that every $5 is worth just over $100m dollars to Tullows FCF not sure if they break even at $40 or $50 per barrel best case we could be looking at $700 million FCF so they can pay down some of the debt.
Waiting for added value with the drill bit! and a new FPSO in Guyana, I wish!

[oilretire] 22/4/2019 19:29

Cheers ss, hope you've had a good one yourself, I've unfortunately been working, but on leave again later this week so I'll soon make up for it ;-)

Meanwhile looking forward to some gains across my folio tomorrow as that's POO now $74+ :-)

[subsurface] 22/4/2019 14:42

Hope you had a nice Easter Oilretire
U,S to end sanction waivers has helped lift the price of Oil

[oilretire] 22/4/2019 03:03

$73.20/bbl is another positive ;-)

[subsurface] 22/4/2019 00:56

On a positive note Tullow is high on The Piotroski F-Score, a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength. The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not. The Piotroski F-Score of Tullow Oil plc (LSE:TLW) is 7. A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.

[subsurface] 21/4/2019 16:38

Tullow has not added any significant value other than follow the price of Oil in a very long time .The Sea drill case lost the company more than we are expecting from Uganda when it eventually arrives,$200M How could we end up with a court case with Kosmos our partner?surly they must have talked over the plans.
They missed the Debt repayment target but keep rewarding themselves
Kenya and Uganda are a very long way from contributing anything significant in terms of Oil production circa 14 years Uganda .
Granted we have some good prospects going forward we farmed into Guyana many years ago.
check out how much has been written off over the years Suriname and French Guiana They tell us they are self funding /with the occasional rights issue.!
Jubilee and Ten may not have not reached full production yet but they are making progress.
Sad we could not drill out on the lake Nagassa prospect uganda ,then lost blocks 1 and 2 in DRC $500 m down the drain
Tullow are very lucky the POO saved them they have very good cash flow and a chance to transform the company
I would pay them 1/3 now and 2/3 on drilling outcome Guyana just like they do with the dividend,
I am still in for the long term but would like to see a tree shake now and then happy to reward them but not for failure.

[frazboy] 21/4/2019 15:02

Why do you think they should get a rough ride SS? It's not obvious they're doing anything wrong. Steady as she goes...

[newtothisgame3] 21/4/2019 14:50

#TLW #Tullow faces revolt over ‘soft’ targets for bonuses

[subsurface] 21/4/2019 04:39

I remember reading the mark of a good! company is one that buys back its shares from time to time.so i hope they look at that as things improve.