Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[romeike] 20/2/2019 14:41

oil down, tullow up

[chessman2] 20/2/2019 09:01

I expect the ECO news to push this higher. Come June when the drilling starts more assets will have been added.

Who knows, could Exxon or Total be interested in part of us?

[j0sekl] 19/2/2019 23:07

Kenya is incredibly corrupt, I sympathize with the things the company has to deal with in relation to the host government. Nevertheless I believe the team's E&P capabilities. One day this will be rewarding.

[bootycall] 19/2/2019 09:34

Uganda FID now forecast to be Sept. Useful article.
hxxps://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2001313519/uganda-s-oil-production-starts-in-2022
The fact that Kenya has also decided not to pursue a refinery also simplifies project economics.The same issue caused numerous delays in Uganda where Musaveni’s small refinery was a loss making pet project no one wanted to finance.

[mcsean2164] 19/2/2019 07:55

Oil up, tullow down, profit taking or something else?

[gkp_banggone] 16/2/2019 18:34

SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOMETrev on lse#1 I have had two of my devices prevented from posting comments to this site.#2 800m effective 2P is the very minimum reserve level the company has at its current WI of 80%. A typical M+A valuation applied $boe would be typically a multiple of 14-16, for reserves of such scale. $ 12bn some £40 a share in current issue. I read speculation that the company has bought back its own shares using a third party via broker or banker. Until confirmed this is obviously speculation. It is clearly what the company should have been doing as it would add even higher upside for remaining investors.#3 An additional valuation metric is $ paid per flowing barrel. This reflects the lifecycle stage of the project, the fact that production infrastructure exists, and revenues are in place. It also widely fluctuates dependent upon a resources growth potential and lifetime. In the case of Shaikan it is very early stage, high growth potential, and if the directors are to be believed, has a lifetime of perhaps as much as a century. On this basis the valuation could be a good deal higher.#4 the real valuation is what a buyer is prepared to pay. If the Chinese are the buyers exclusively or as part of a consortium then the mandate these state led organisations have, is to ensure Chinese state access to long term reserves, with cost secondary. The Chinese would place reserve securitisation above price.#5 CNPC is the clear suspect as buyer had around 3.6bn reserves 2017 reports. We can see therefore that acquiring GKP would add transformational to these, with the considerable advantage that if oil prices were too fall, these reserves can still be booked as commercially recoverable , at far lower crude price models, as the lifting costs are so low.#6 I maintain that a minimum of 800m 2P is effective. It is very likely with EOR and future discovery, and with the real possibility the matrix is releasing oil to fractures, that this is very conservative.#7 The Chinese will also know that, and would potentially pay a large premium. Sinopec for example has in the past paid more than $1bn to drill far smaller unproven acreage than Shaikan.#8 this will be my last contribution to this forum, and I wish genuine investors every success, and believe that that success is likely near term. Man ska inte skåda given häst i munnen.xxczczx

[manicat] 14/2/2019 10:49

sentiment has changed for the better here tullow are ripe for a takeover bid any one got a figure that would take tullow out?

[billy_buffin] 14/2/2019 09:36

ss

Gas not to be desired I expect unless there is multi tcf for LNG. If plenty of condensate could be stabilised and spiked into Venezuelan heavy for example to boost its API?

[subsurface] 13/2/2019 20:30

Pleased we are keeping the 60% Orinduick prospect,And the credit Ratings have improved
Uganda getting better but still some way to go. short on detail at the moment. be very happy to see 150,000+ bbls a day then get back into the FTSE top 100.
Just wondering if the fact that we are up dip of Lisa is there more chance of a find being condensate and gas ?

[gkp_banggone] 13/2/2019 18:10

X🕰ï¸?😀SALE BY SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT ANNOUNCED BY 8:00 AM FEB 19YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK 😊 AND YOU ARE VERY WELCOME😊ðŸ'ŸðŸ–¤ðŸ–¤ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'œThe more their proxy Citigroup /Pareto have bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸPeel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super CONSERVATIVE 🌋ðŸ'‹!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈xxFrom IR 16th January 2019:-"GKP now has an 80% working interest in Shaikan, as per the Shaikan PSC executed in 2007. Discussions which could lead to a PSC amendment continue and GKP will inform the market in due course. As previously communicated, if the PSC is amended, it is expected to be at least neutral to the company."=====+The 58% is therefore not valid , and the company clearly communicated this change, and have said 80% in the most recent presentation, and if there was to be any PSC change it would be value neutral to them at worst..So a FDP signature would take 80% of current 2C into 2P , meaning at worst case reserves are 800m 2P.Peel Hunt continue to use the invalid 58% figure in generating a core NAV, and I understand the BOD have been clearly advised that this continued misrepresentation needs immediate correction.We will see either a major JV or a sale, as it is simply not credible that almost 3 years have elapsed in negotiations an evolved PSC.I found the presentation very disappointing, as it did not address any key commercial matters of interest.Perhaps this is understandable however. Jon Ferrier was clearly discomforted when the issue of Chinese analysis was raised. Perhaps that was understandable too!

[gkp_banggone] 13/2/2019 12:11

#GKP #GulfKeystone #takeoverAs we wait for imminent sale RNSThink!! ðŸ¤"CNPC is 4th largest corporation in world current reserves are 3.7bnBuying Gkp increases by minimum +20%Have any idea just how valuable that makes this acquisition?😀How much they'd pay to win GKP?

[bootycall] 13/2/2019 11:32

Funny to hear Angus McCoss saying COS on each Guyana exploration well to be drilled is 1 in 4, to 1 in 5, against his usual 15% for a wildcat. Lisa and Hammerhead have proven both the cretaceous and tertiary plays respectively. He also says in the Q&A right at the end that "it is pretty evident Hammerhead extends into our block to some extent"....so the COS must surely be 60-80% as the prospect is up dip of the discovery.
He also implied that a successful drilling of Jethro a 100mbls prospect(at a total cost of $28m in 1350m of water) would derisk a number of tertiary targets nearby.
If any of these wells are successful, the prospect inventory will be risk adjusted downwards resulting in a material change to analysts valuations. The oncoming FID in Uganda (mid 2019) and Kenya (end 2019) should also be catalysts for the share price.
Tullow is already extremely attractive based on its forecast cash flow yield. The initial drilling locations in the Guyana drilling programme are not the largest prospects to be drilled (and therefore do not individually impact the NAV valuation that much). In the event of a successful outcome, they will in my opinion, restore the premium rating to the share price that existed several years ago.

[oilretire] 13/2/2019 10:20

Forget the results, it's probably a better signal we're on the up because the thread isn't inundated with dafties talking it down like the pmo thread ;-)

[knowing] 13/2/2019 10:12

Fantastic results. Now just need PFC to start it's recovery

[ifthecapfits] 13/2/2019 10:08

Whilst much of the immediate focus, rightly so, is now on Guyana - I'm starting to think that following recent licence award in Suriname Block 62 (?)(acknowledging recent P&A Block 47) that we could have an exciting future there too given relatively close proximity to Guyana basins. Block 47 not a write off yet - gas condensate encountered just not in commercial quantities.

[ifthecapfits] 13/2/2019 09:35

Moving up nicely now.

[manicat] 13/2/2019 09:06

results presentation live now

[mariopeter] 13/2/2019 08:56

Uganda really firming up...that is good news indeed. I am pleased with start of dividends.

[bootycall] 12/2/2019 17:59

Pipelines security is a genuine concern for older pipelines. Total allows a 25% downtime in forecasting production from the Trans Niger pipeline. New underground pipelines are not such a problem and there is plenty of new technology able to protect them once installed and reduce spillages if leaks are detected.
hxxps://www.sensoguard.com/oil-gas-pipeline-security-system/
Don’t forget that Tullow secured a good price for its Ugandan reserves even though it was initially proposed that a Kenyan northern pipeline would be the route to the coast.

[ifthecapfits] 12/2/2019 15:39

Looks like could be good day here tomorrow. Those in the know getting in ahead of time?