Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 27/1/2019 08:16

Debt,we know the debt level 3.1 billion dollars,so I asked google what is an appropriate level of debt for a mid cap oil company like Tullow
They talk about Debt/Equity range from 0.5 to 0.8 and Tullow 10 year average 1.34 with oil between 50 to 70 Dollars per barrel
When you look at Tullows comments
Net debt reduced from $3.5 billion at the beginning of the year to c.$3.1 billion at the end of 2018 with gearing expected to be 1.9x, in line with the operating range of 1-2x as set out in the Group’s capital allocation framework.
so that,s a different system, so I looked again its American I think?
Covers capital allocation on parts of the business and risk
Is this used because we are in Dollars?
Are they in any way masking a problem!
Should we have both?
All I Wanted to know is the appropriate level of debt and when will we achieve that?
It seems like asking how long is a piece of string because they can choose to pay debt down or not,any comments would be much appreciated.
That completes my Janet and John forensic inspection on Tullow peace will return to the discussion board.I am going to work on my historic time line.
regards to all.

[subsurface] 27/1/2019 00:27

Very positive a different world than Uganda And Kenya

[subsurface] 26/1/2019 20:41

The process of change,we can look at it step wise,
We were doing well, past performance was good ,then an Event /Events then Chaos.then Resistance then Denile, then the Trough of Despare then Acceptance and learning, then Integration and finally to new Performance, All over time
So where are we?, looks like we have some way to go if you read the IR letter no quick solution if we stay as we are, that,s my opinion.whats yours? maybe D and D remember that one a double diamond works wonders!.

[subsurface] 26/1/2019 08:59

very well put hsfinch

[hsfinch] 26/1/2019 07:41

Tlw floundered for years. Then They bought Energy Africa and Hardman. Great deals. Then Kosmos found Jubilee. And they were hyped and hyped and hyped to £16. Heavey believed the hype. It's been downhill ever since. Internal and external factors have played into it. But mainly internal IMO. And investors have twigged that it's a badly run company which seems to exist for the benefit of management and employees. So inevitably there has been a loss of interest.

[subsurface] 26/1/2019 00:58

On the front of the Daily Mail this morning Lets give Britan a spring clean! and I wrote to Tullow Lets give Tullow a spring clean!

[subsurface] 25/1/2019 22:56

If you scroll down to related articles repetitive and a bit of a jumble African press!
Just hope our debt pile and the poor performance of the Sp Uganda and Kenya does not count against them. hopeful !
A big negative for the management if we are not selected!
On the positive side we have the infrastructure.

[mccracken227] 25/1/2019 12:18

Halfway through the day and not yet a million traded!!

[subsurface] 25/1/2019 08:14

XX Some Thoughts with hindsite / History we should be able to produce a time line of events as you say its a lot to remember the recession and the POO and things that went wrong from failed drills to court cases ,i am going to start with the 10 year Tullow trend and also
Those who sold at 16 pounds got it right or knew what they were doing or were lucky and then the price started to fall and the shorter,s the Hyena,s arrived at the kill.
It would be interesting to know who sold could that be done with the share holder register.and who shorted,I remember Odey and Mr x who could never say a good word about Tullow.. Look at the large holders so we get a fuller picture,
Another indicator may the discussion boards. Is there a way to find out attendance as well as the number of posts how many people look on a given day? What I have seen is a dramatic fall off on posters must Be me ! a loss of interest, put into the time line. Whats the point!,We get a more accurate picture of events.that we can use in the future and become one of those who sold at 16 pounds next time and can better predict events
The job of an analyst you may say but .nobody rang me to tell me to sell at the top we could look at who predicted of the decline first.
In the betting industry there a saying,Them that know don,t tell and them that tell don,t know, food for thought!.
I want to write about two more subjects in a few days I have been looking up on two subjects The process of change /and the rocket science one Debt.oh well off to play Badminton.
have a nice day PS I sent you an e mail,

[subsurface] 23/1/2019 20:47

And the award for the worst performing share is.......

[supermarky] 23/1/2019 11:03

Tp anyone?

[subsurface] 23/1/2019 03:32

And Just to give you a laugh,they have some special comments in the Oil industry
talk about re inventing the wheel,and the man that invented the the bypass was very clever.and for contractors they give you two buckets one fills up with Money and the other with ..it which ever one fills first then you move on,

[subsurface] 23/1/2019 03:23

Mcsean If it helps Tullow,fortunes and those of our investor community its worth going the extra mile.I am not top of the class in anything I do have gall.

Getting to the heart of the problem.
Mindset and my Janet and John approach
In the Oil industry from my experience there are two different Mindsets
The Refinery Mindset Don,t worry if we cannot do it today we will do it tomorrow,and there is always one in the stores!
The contractor Mindset Pre Commissioning/Commissioning Push push push until the jobs done.If we cannot do it this way can we do it that way? ,time is money and we need this plant up and running and handed over,and move on,

Janet and John,
Everything I have posted is Janet and John there is no rocket science in it i leave that to others.
I am going to sort the National health out for you. big mess and its huge so how would i do it
1 Get one hospital working properly then replicate it. don,t fall into the trap of trying to bring the whole thing up in one go.
How would I save money
Don,t build more hospitals build small Sports halls that are free to go in, easy accessible not fancy! basic no membership costs no bookings, Free, basically a room with 4 badminton courts and some training equipment once people get involved and they will if its free,the health benefits are huge reduce the costs at the hospitals I am lucky to have that situation here in Thailand, I lost 20kilo,and have reversed type 2 diabetes and no tablets it also Keeps kids off the streets and old and young mix together,and mentor the younger generation I play with youngsters 20 years old I run them around the court and they have respect and I give them Janet and John advice Example Networking How to find work Group 6 are a class 30 students 60 eyes looking for work , They scatter but they stay as a team one gets a job finds they have another vacancy they feeds it back online.to the team.

I commissioned the Sangu gas plant in Bangladesh they had many problems one day the manager called me to the office and asked if i had any suggestions they had developed a programme for maintenance basically all singing all dancing if you wanted to do a task it would tell you everything that you need to know gaskets bolts tools Isolation,s parts availability and print out a permit to work. problem could not get it working.
and I am not a computer man
Answer Break it down into systems get the offshore platform working first then replicate to the onshore,Good old Janet and John!
That,s my thoughts for Tullow .
A step further The Tullow Uganda manager should share an office The Top oil Manager/minister he should tell her what he wants and she should deliver it if a country cannot do that then we should not be there.
the rest is history
Very sorry to go on and on Tullow needs to be driven.I want this turned around.

[mcsean2164] 22/1/2019 20:59

Thanks subsurface!

[subsurface] 22/1/2019 16:54

Great, xx I have sent you my e mail address.please feel free to contact me,

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 16:14

Thank you, I feel the same of you SS.

[subsurface] 22/1/2019 16:03

Great xx I have a lot of respect and admiration for you and we will find you a bottle of your favorite red! as promised.

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 15:54

You can count on it SS. If I'm passing through we'll have some Singha's! I may well write the company a letter about those options one day!

[subsurface] 22/1/2019 15:49

Yes XX quite right The begging bowel that,s how low we stooped! ,Thanks for your patience, with my posts. Its still in my mind to meet you one day and if you are over this way do let me know as well . best regards

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 14:57

"The new management team have..... put the balance sheet into a significantly more robust place."

Whilst factually correct, sounds nonsensical to me! Surely the shareholders did most of the heavy lifting? After the "old" management arguably performed poorly (I mean by that all the write downs/failed wells etc), the "new" management, or was it the "old" management, were forced to stand before shareholders, with begging bowl in hand(IIRC). The resultant rights issue(IIRC) brought shareholder value destruction (or dilution). Surely the "new" management are exactly the same people as the "old" management? OK, Aidan is no longer there, CFO left on health grounds?(IIRC) but the other faces are, more or less, the same as before, aren't they? Deckchair shuffling on the Titanic may not solve the issue. But anyway, Do you own research (DYOR), as I maybe mis-remembering events.

Apologies for sounding off, but awarding options to management for year 2018 does not seem appropriate to me, given the way things turned out.

[subsurface] 22/1/2019 14:38

Alfiex ,First of all to pick up on spur them on!
1 The major shareholders,2 the Banks 3 the private Investors like us. 4 the one that has perhaps great potential the Ghana Investors.I was looking for a Ghana Tullow discussion forum and wondering if they could be brought on board ,as a way influence the management.Just an idea given how important Ghana is to Tullow,that might be a way to get things done.

If our management are not proactive we just may get the company shaped by events beyond our control similar to what we see now in Kenya and Uganda.

I often wonder if when we were at our lowest point could things have been much worse than we realized. and imagine the things we don,t know about?

If it was the Legal department that played a part in the Sea Drill/ Kosmos spat could our tax problems in Uganda be down to them being involved in the Petroleum/Tax agreement?

In the company reply they talk about reducing costs but if we were not able to meet our debt reduction target then we need to take out more and sell off the problematic parts to pay down the debt.

Tullow started from Scratch ,we could shrink and re start from a much better base level with just Ghana production generating cash.along with the none operated assets and some very good prospects to drill , Debt down and slowly rebuild our company our reputation ,our credit rating and back in the top 100.lessons learned,for me that,s the quick route back.

[alfiex] 22/1/2019 09:14

Thanks for the effort subsurface, you have given them an insight to many on this boards thoughts. You never know it may spur them on.

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 09:08

Thanks for posting this. Unfortunately it's more of the same. Glosses over the continual screw ups! Jam tomorrow that usually results in a stale sandwich.