Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[cat100] 10/2/2016 15:02

Well I did forecast $9 oil yesterday. I thought that would be as low as it could go. Well I was wrong . It can in fact get lower . hxxp://profit.ndtv.com/news/industries/article-store-our-oil-and-take-two-thirds-for-free-uaes-offer-to-india-1275964

[ifthecapfits] 10/2/2016 14:54

RNS - Director buys....

[milliecusto] 10/2/2016 14:53

If oil stays the same through to q2 2017 then tlw and a lot others are history,a lot higher risk then many think.

[mr aboii] 10/2/2016 14:50

I am underwater as well, but do not care at the moment :)
Long Term Holder :) :)

[volsung] 10/2/2016 14:39

You what? Carla I think you are a bit paranoid.

[spirito] 10/2/2016 14:39

Ridiculous volatility at the moment - just ignore it- if you don't you are giving money away.

[carla1] 10/2/2016 14:38

TROLLS using multi Avatars .... Be AWARE !!!

NY BOY and Volsung ... same Character with History..... FACT !!!!

[mr aboii] 10/2/2016 14:37

Timberrrrrr !

[spirito] 10/2/2016 14:36

Scared people selling and giving the shorters what they want. Sit on your hands don't panic and you will make money long term.

[ny boy] 10/2/2016 14:36

Nymex just printed a fresh low after breaking Last month's support, all down to the 15.30 data again for clues on direction.

[ny boy] 10/2/2016 14:31

Seducing a lot of punters, then spitting them out, 10,20p lower each dead cat bounce, way too much noise about with this stick to seriously consider entering the fray, needs a few weeks, maybe months to settle down. Oil is still volatile, so that needs to stabilize first.

[volsung] 10/2/2016 14:26

Pity the poor holders here - holmess where art thou?
Looks like year lows will be revisited in short order. Eventually the oil price will pick up but this could take some time. There is the remote possibility of a bid but given that this thread has been waiting on one since 2006 I wouldn't hold my breath.
So my view is a revisit to 115p or so and then it all depends on the POO. Dramatic moves there will probably be reflected in the share price

[ny boy] 10/2/2016 14:06

Lots of bull traps, any rally still being sold, needs to reclaim 160p and stay above that level, otherwise should fade to next support 120p

[mcsean2164] 10/2/2016 12:47

Strong West Africa production performance

In 2015, production across the Group was in line with expectations. West Africa working interest oil production averaged 66,600 bopd. In Europe, gas production averaged 6,800 boepd. Average working interest production guidance for 2016 from West Africa and Europe is 73,000-80,000 bopd and 5,000-7,000 boepd respectively. This includes production in the second half of 2016 from the TEN development as it gradually ramps up following first oil. In 2015, Tullow's operating costs per barrel in West Africa remained low averaging $10.0/bbl for Jubilee and $15.0 bbl across the West Africa non-operated portfolio. Tullow continues to focus on improving efficiencies and operating costs across its West Africa asset base and is working to maximise Jubilee and TEN operational synergies in Ghana where combined operating costs are expected to reduce to c.$8/bbl in 2018.

I'm finding it a little difficult to interpret the above. I've been in touch with the investor relations a couple of times, (he's not very pleasant), but might try him again.

Are they saying all West Africa at $8/bbl in 2018 and predicting 100k bopd?

I need to do some homework Friday.

Basically let's assume each barrel costs $10, every $10 above this is worth $365million. With P/E of 10, that brings us to $3.65billion or £2.5billion.

With oil at $30, this becomes a £5 billion company with a P/E of 10.

Is there anyone that seriously thinks oil will remain sub $30 in the long term?

To put this in context, shell has a PE of 71.




Will it actually cost us less than Kuwait to produce a barrel of oil in west africa?

[azalea] 10/2/2016 12:29

OPEC upped its production by 131k bpd in January pumping a total of 32.3m bpd in the month. The OPEC report said that production from non OPEC countries was expected to decline by 70k bpd this year as US oil rigs would be shuttered and as international companies cut investments in reaction to lower prices.

Iran is reported to be looking to negotiate with Saudi Arabia to cut its production. Fat chance, given the Saudi Kingdom sees Iran as its biggest enemy in the Middle East.

[jovi1] 10/2/2016 12:19

emptyend

that is a fair assessment I think.
the only think I doubt that tlw need oil 55 to 60 to make a living, but I agree noting to make change the plan or the view.
only the panic of the day and the volatility of poo

[emptyend] 10/2/2016 12:04

Gosh there's some rubbish being posted here today. The situation today is the same as it was yesterday: if oil prices don't get back over $55-60 during the next year, TLW is in a pretty difficult position. But whilst that remains a possibility, you simply cannot rule out a bid.....the value of Tullow's equity may be much diminished, but if you happen to be in the market to buy a distressed company with an enterprise value of £4bn+ and an interesting mix of assets, then Tullow would be a strong candidate.Of course it may yet come cheaper. But probably not vastly cheaper, given the debt pile. If anything is going to happen on that, I think it will occur in the next 6 months.No position, by the way....too risky for my taste (at present).

[hearts1] 10/2/2016 12:02

It had a good run and as said before its best to trade part of your holding with the volatility.Let's see where it settles in next few days.

[jovi1] 10/2/2016 11:49

NY

what the market think is not always right and it is exactly this the time to invest in and if you believe in the company or the product.
what market think in any case can be well different on what the share price do on a day or weekly bases.
TLW only fault is that the result happen to be the day after a massive oil drop and we some shorting happening.
this will change as little more confidence in poo and more study in the number.
having dome my number on a napkin again here is what I think.
if oil stay at 31 and with the low guideline in production TLW T/O will be over 1.5 Bill including hedges average bar approx. $55 and given the saving cashflow will be over 1.1 bill and profit will be higher too.
however the biggest factor will be the TEN project not only because the production but more importantly because the reduction in capex.
this will be the transformational point not the edibita / debit ratio.
in base of this fact I still add regardless as my selling date is far in the future unless I can see some fundamental change
good luck

[sawadee3] 10/2/2016 11:46

All this does is create yet another buying opportunity, and we get plenty with TLW :-)

What's new?

Beautiful trading stock :-)

[robwt] 10/2/2016 11:42

Looks like Crispin Odey knew exactly what the score was with the Tullow report.

Sad to see, but the chances of a bid for a company that is technically broke is nil. Judging by many of the bullish posts up till last Friday, there must be some very unhappy people on this board. It is time they took the losses and sold. If they still fancy a punt, TLW will be sub 100p in a week or two!

[ny boy] 10/2/2016 11:32

For anyone interested the chart shows still in a down channel. Resistance is now 160p and support 120p

To climb out of the long term down channel the share price would need to clear 200p+

Neutral -Medium term, Feb 8, 2016 Analysis Explanation

TULLOW OIL PLC is in a falling trend and a continued decline within this trend may be expected. In addition, the price has now risen up towards the ceiling of the trend channel, which should give a reaction down. The stock has broken up through the resistance at pence 160. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at pence 160. Positive volume balance strengthens the stock in the short term. The stock is overall assessed as technically neutral for the medium long term.

[stevenrevell] 10/2/2016 11:31

This needs a bid now

[nicebut] 10/2/2016 11:26

The algorithm has delinked from oil and the DOW...Big push down. Which is annoying. Somewhat overdone IMO.

What has channged since 4 days ago? This would still go bust along with virtually every other oil company, with v low PoO.