Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 10/2/2016 08:43

Well 64% hedged post tax is 64% hedged for 2016. Poo is forecast to recover H2 and let's not forget both the Russians and Saudis are hurting fiscally at 30us. And the timetable in data before US production will show a dramatic drop. Also don't forget that with 4bn debt tullow's banks will be bending over backwards to be flexible in the small technical eventuality of a covenant breach. They tend to adjust covenants to reflect lower for longer scenarios cause with huge hedgingand 100000 production next year we are primed for recovery.. And have lowered the cost base

[ohisay] 10/2/2016 08:42

Seen a bit more shorting interest lately.

[emptyend] 10/2/2016 08:30

No surprise that Tullow flag a potential future covenant breach. It is an obvious consequence for indebted companies that are unable to produce profitably at current oil prices and which also have diminishing protection from hedges.TLW has been a leveraged bet on oil prices ever since oil prices started moving down.....but the same also applies as and when oil prices recover. Oil prices certainly will recover, when the physical constraints on production start to erode inventories.....but its anyones' guess when that will happen and from what level.FWIW it is my opinion that the low point for the oil price is already in - though that may not become clear for a few months yet.

[edmondj] 10/2/2016 08:12

Yes that was tucked well down the release!


Notwithstanding our forecasts of liquidity headroom throughout the 12 month period, there remains a risk, given the volatility of the oil price environment and its impact on operating cash flows and facility availability, that the Group's liquidity position may deteriorate and/or the Group may become technically non-compliant with one of its financial covenants at the end of 2016.

To mitigate this risk, we will continue to maintain our long-term banking relations and will monitor our cash flow projections and, if necessary, take mitigating actions well in advance to maintain our liquidity and compliance with covenants. Actions available to the Group include further rationalisation of our cost base, cuts to discretionary capital expenditure, portfolio management and other funding options.



Looks like any near-term share recovery will be mitigated, as holders take their own mitigating actions.

[cestnous] 10/2/2016 08:12

Dead right Kev.

[kevjones2] 10/2/2016 08:00

I have no idea how the share price will end up today because I have no idea how the market will react to today's report. I suspect no-one else genuinely knows either.

[ny boy] 10/2/2016 07:57

Yikes, I'll stay well clear...

The oil producer Tullow said there was a risk, if oil prices remain low, that it may become non-compliant with its financial covenants by the end of the year.

[shaf5] 10/2/2016 07:57

Around 5% drop

[edmondj] 10/2/2016 07:57

In context of Odey Asset Management's overall long/short exposure, the positions on Anglo/Tullow will be small. If they continue to believe a deflationary recession is on the cards, they must be desperate for more short exposure!

[ed 123] 10/2/2016 07:54

Anyone want to guess where Tullow will end at close today?

I'll go for a fall of 12p, to close around 150p.

[warwick69] 10/2/2016 07:49

He shorted way higher than that he has averaged down but agree I think he is beginning to stretch himself and massively increasing his risk on the position. He is also big short on Anglo American again from higher up but he is fighting a very big battle of the bottom has been found and the momentum has switched? He will now be fighting the robot trades as well as long term adding

[shaf5] 10/2/2016 07:47

Thanks jovi

[fsawatcher] 10/2/2016 07:40

Goldman Sachs were forced to close all their long dollar bets as they were getting crushed by the dollars fall.

Goldman Sachs were also pushing and issuing buy notes on the banks

Goldman Sachs have been making a right mess of things. Clueless.

Odey are no exception. This bet will ruin him.

He had a chance to short at 1400p but was no where to be seen. Pitching up at 140p says it all.

Amateurs the lot of 'em. They are all small time gamblers with big time capital.

[warwick69] 10/2/2016 07:21

Odey sold an extra 1.8 million only last Thursday he is not letting up he is increasing his gamble? So he is selling into the recent rallies one man battle to stop any rallies in there tracks

[nw99] 10/2/2016 07:09

Tullow Oil posts loss of $1.03 billion for the year with revenues down 27% at $1.6bn

[nicebut] 09/2/2016 22:41

Odey...4.5% from 4.4%....only change!

[jovi1] 09/2/2016 22:31

nY

Banks not sure are much safer than oil.
If oil don't go up everyone will suffer well almost everyone.
There are no less than 2.3 trillions between bond and loans to the oil company alone,
Who do you think own those and what do you think will happen to the banks if that bobble burst?
Today for a long investment oil company are better than bank at least if you think risk reward ratio.
We are in the operational cost at this level and any lower more company will not be able to produce.
TLW in theory could stop all production and still make profit this year and next.
To some extent if oil need to go to 9 or any other number around that quick it happen better will be.

[jovi1] 09/2/2016 22:11

Hi shaf5
For ody is 4% of 912mill approx 40 mill share
For everyone to cover is just over the double between 90 to 100 mill.
Hope this info help

[pixi] 09/2/2016 21:16

Sounds good to me.

[volsung] 09/2/2016 20:52

$27 oil by the end of this week in my view. TLW probably around £1.50. Would look to go long thereabouts for a trip to £1.90 or so

[cat100] 09/2/2016 20:52

Golf driver Thanks for that famous log entry . I'll be very proud of myself when you dig it up to remind me

[ny boy] 09/2/2016 20:39

This is only a buy once crude has stabilized, still early days but important to hold 150p support, as I said before, no rush to get long yet, I am more of a buyer of the main banks as the sector has been greatly oversold, good trading opportunities in that sector, also the Banks only have a small exposure to the energy sector generally.

[golf driver] 09/2/2016 20:33

cat100 9 Feb'16 - 20:32 - 25178 of 25178 0 0

Spirito typo should be 20's but it will see 20 for sure

That`s going into the LOG

[cat100] 09/2/2016 20:32

Spirito typo should be 20's but it will see 20 for sure and less than your typo ;-)