Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[hearts1] 24/1/2016 18:18

I think the economist was looking at operating costs only.However with Shale the capex costs are more continuous, as they have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production, as opposed to conventional oil where the capex is predominantly front loaded.Then you have to add debt interest and G&A. All the main independent shale producers are delivering a negative cash flow per quarter.

[shaf5] 24/1/2016 17:58

How long do the shorts have to close. Surely if you selling shares you don't own,there must be a time limit to buy them back. Or do they close and just reopen the short again.

[mcsean2164] 24/1/2016 15:37

Thanks Paul,

Yes, something I factored in when investing but should have looked into it more, still the economist is a first to give a production cost of $15 per barrel.

Interesting to note, Capital Fund Management SA bough back .05% last week. Tiny figure but still represents £675,000 worth of shares at these prices.

9.54% disclosed as short. Will be great if they start to close out these trades, even 5% is £67.5million

[paulbiya] 24/1/2016 07:30

McSean, it varies greatly. There isn't a simple answer since all shale projects have their own economics

[mapocho] 23/1/2016 18:20

Going back too far isn't realistic.

Oil price average since 1946 $41.70 a barrel. Lo and behold GS target for oil.

[staffy dog] 23/1/2016 17:08

Nice rise end of week,thats a few quid made for those with bottle.

[sophia13] 23/1/2016 16:58

Depends on your time frame.

hxxp://www.chartsrus.com/charts.php?image=hxxp://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/chartind1CRUvoi.php?ticker=FUTCL

hxxp://uk.businessinsider.com/annotated-history-crude-oil-prices-since-1861-2014-12?r=US&IR=T

hxxp://chartsbin.com/view/oau

[mapocho] 23/1/2016 13:31

Can't expect oil to drop forever...

It's not normal at these prices historically.

Despite all the gloom, the global economy growing year by year..

Time to short Tlw was at £16 per share, but now everyone's keen at £1.40 for a few points. Got to be a flawed strategy at this stage in my opinion.

[bookbroker] 23/1/2016 13:21

Oil rise has been driven by extreme oversold conditions, short covering, exhaustion selling, cold weather in US and Draghi, Kuroda comments, price may rise a bit more, but is this just by a respite!

[flyposter] 23/1/2016 13:12

I concur TreeShake.

[treeshake] 23/1/2016 12:35

Am sure tlw will rise Monday morning. Whether that is still case by Wednesday is another question :-)


Spot on !

[azalea] 23/1/2016 11:37

Paulbiya-24508
Thank you for the link - a very interesting read.

[leoneobull] 23/1/2016 11:18

Nobody knows when and whether bottom reached. On Monday to Wednesday every analyst was saying 25 us Thursday Friday optimism reigned off back of higher than expected inventory build.Am sure tlw will rise Monday morning. Whether that is still case by Wednesday is another question :-)

[treeshake] 23/1/2016 09:57

looking at all of those stories it actually shows that NONE of them have a clue which way its going to go do they !

[kidknocked] 23/1/2016 09:52

Orient. Entirely agree ! A classic indicator is a commodity price either unaffected or up in light of seemingly negative news. Will be volatile, but I'm betting quite heavily we are somewhere near the bottom now.

[0rient] 23/1/2016 08:17

It's all priced in Paulbiya...classic signs of a bottom is when prices do the opposite even when further bad news is announced :)

[paulbiya] 23/1/2016 08:06

How come eia inventory went UP 4m barrels compare with only 200 the week before yet prices did opposite of what one might expect?!The API data show a greater-than-expected increase in the crude oil inventory. If the EIA inventory report is consistent with the API report, we could see carnage in the crude oil market. The current crude oil inventory is at an 80-year high for this time of year. It's also more than 25% higher than last year's levels. The crude oil inventory may have increased due to a rise in oil imports as a result of weaker Brent crude oil prices last week. The weaker seasonal demand due to refinery maintenance or glut in the refined products markets may also have led to a rise in the crude oil inventory.

[flyposter] 22/1/2016 23:14

I hope Steve Perkins isn't behind this rise:

[keya5000] 22/1/2016 22:49

Its 2008 all over again.

[hearts1] 22/1/2016 22:41

OPEC down 150k bopd December Non OPEC growth started 2015 at 2.2mill growth, finished at 1 mill.CNOOC have said 70k bopd drop for 2016.Russia state pipeline has indicated 450k bopd drop in Russian output.US production forecast to drop 500k - 1 mill.Libya - war zoneNigeria - Delta region pipeline bombings and conflict Yemen - oil port sabotageIran - needs billions of dollars capex to get anywhere near its targets.Canada - break even average at $40Iraq - service contracts based on government paying all capex for increased production - can't pay.Kurdistan - can't pay oil companies for current production let alone money to maintain productionVenezuela - near bankrupt.And it will continue till PoO reaches current equilibrium of circa $60-65.You can't Buck the market, either way.

[ramas] 22/1/2016 22:03

What would be nice now would be a few countries announcing production cuts and leverage this small probably short covering rise