Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 22/1/2016 01:26

One hell of a cost? Saudi have bags of cash to throw at this.....

[keya5000] 21/1/2016 22:24

Good posts Hearts1.

Tide will turn sound though. Saudis need to run a country on oil revenues. I think the diversified West may have played them this time.

Result will be shale is stifled and may not reach its peaks again for 10 plus years.

Think the Saudis want to make hay whilst the sun shines till alternative options are mass market. Oil will go the same way that coal went within the next two decades.

Limit shale expansion with the threat of low prices which will lead to no finance commitment and its dead in the water. They can then maintain their share till the age of fuel cells etc takeover.

Very dangerous game though for them, tactical victory perhaps but at one hell of a cost.

[hearts1] 21/1/2016 22:15

With Shale it's not just opex, there's a lot of capex just to maintain production. Last year they were turning revenue to pay debt interest, but now at these prices they can still turn over cash flow on opex but not with any additional capex - so the decline rates will start to drop production.I think by this time next year US production will drop by 1 mill bopd if PoO remains under $45.

[hearts1] 21/1/2016 22:09

It's coming.....'The shakeout in the industry had been expected much sooner, and it has taken oil prices to lower prices for much longer than initially expected."I think there's going to be a fairly lengthy consolidation process here. But I think the market is signaling to us that it's ready to go up on any positive news, if it's going to rally on the DOE number," said Melek. "...[N]o one is making any money, and you're going to see massive attrition in the nontraditional space faster than many forecasts are thinking."Melek said it's now up to producers and whether they can hang on. "It depends on how long you're going to remain solvent. How good are your lines of credit?" he said. "That will determine the speed and magnitude of attrition. They can't cover these operations."

[cat100] 21/1/2016 21:54

hearts1 US production not only needs to fall but the banks that supported the producers need to show they have been hurt bad to stop reinvestment in fracking. So this could run a while yet.

[hearts1] 21/1/2016 21:40

US production slightly up, so difficult to see a decent rise in PoO till this starts falling, it will given shale depletion rates and the high marginal cost relative to WTI. It's just taking longer than most thought it would.

[leoneobull] 21/1/2016 21:31

Warwick. I admire your trading style but the oh so subtle position posting...less so :-)

[warwick69] 21/1/2016 20:57

No I've stayed long today have 27000 shares I fancy this up to 150 by mid next week

[hearts1] 21/1/2016 20:32

warwick69 - 21 Jan 2016 - 19:25 - 24365 of 24367 - 0Usual story oil struggling to hold onto the earlier gains when will this relentless selling into rallies ever end?But ironic seeing as you sell into any 8 point plus rally on TLW.

[warwick69] 21/1/2016 19:25

Usual story oil struggling to hold onto the earlier gains when will this relentless selling into rallies ever end?

[warwick69] 21/1/2016 18:39

Oil nearly $1 higher than close if it can hold this overnight then we should gap up quite a bit overnight 132 minimum and this might accelerate some short covering we have not managed to follow through on these minor rallies needs a few days of rising to get out of this 120-130 range .. Does feel like a real correction in the oil price for the moment maybe some big positions being closed,

[money mad] 21/1/2016 17:11

Oil looks on the up

[hearts1] 21/1/2016 17:05

Disruption in Libya will take out upto 200k bopd, we've already had bombings to Nigerian oil pipelines.The ME and Africa have high risk in the current climate and there is no risk priced into PoO.

[cat100] 21/1/2016 17:02

Crude @ $30 = March contracts

[jovi1] 21/1/2016 16:46

if Italian bank need help they will have it and that will help this industry too.
tlw hold this time and under 10% shift is almost a flat day.
in and out has been very profitable until now but there is a risk of missing the boat soon.
in a different sentiment this would be at least double and sentiment change quickly.
adding slowly slowly is my strategy unfortunately I started little too early but is better than miss the boat.
in any case good luck

[warwick69] 21/1/2016 16:44

This could be the day oil has a 10% rally day !!

[mr aboii] 21/1/2016 16:44

Uwaaa, I want to top up at 100 p

Uwaaaa, uwaaa...

EDIT: I Blame "the Yank Boy" for this failure!

[langy_1] 21/1/2016 16:37

Oil is on a mission now!

[spirito] 21/1/2016 16:30

All these mini rallies been sold- tomorrow will tell.

[jovi1] 21/1/2016 16:25

please don't be too optimistic on your comment always bring bad luck
lol