Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[privileged] 22/5/2020 14:12

Hope so mallorca.

[mallorca 9] 22/5/2020 14:09

Its a short squeeze with SB companies now requiring 50% margin on this.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 13:57

I've increased short a lot today alsoThe only thing that worries me is online train tickets could be mandated in covid world so good for trn. But hopefully the rail operators will plug their own websites for this (one or two are white label trn but most not, not sure what profit they make, would be good to know ). But if capacity is only 15% of normal then even 100% market share makes it look toppy. I guess if that gets relaxed and they pick up big market share in future is what market is hoping. Still all seems over priced given uncertainty and the valuation multiple

[mallorca 9] 22/5/2020 13:52

Just opened another short.

[privileged] 22/5/2020 12:21

This is insane, £2 to £5 in under 2 months. Nearly at ATH

Any insight?

[catscats] 22/5/2020 10:17

what is going on here - the stock is up almost 50% in 2 weeks with no news. Is it a short squeeze or does someone have some insight (inside) of good news to come...?

[kickingking] 20/5/2020 16:04

Sooner or later this will be crashing down. If one can hold their nerve, they will make serious money. I can not see this going higher then 580p. Keep adding to short at every 50p. Alot people will not be doing the long commute in the future to work 5 days a week. Companies will see people can work from home and still have a functioning business.

[primarch1] 20/5/2020 15:55

Can't argue with the trend on this one even if the fundamentals don't add up shorting this has hurt gl to those long maybe I will join you

[tenapen] 20/5/2020 06:32

The rail opperators would save on all fronts if they were to stop thier stand alone ticket sales, and pay for a TRN or another app with the rail opperators Logo on the front page .... White label.

IMHO

[privileged] 19/5/2020 08:28

Hopefully commuters can be directed to the website of their operator instead to purchase without commission and easier to get refunds etc

[tenapen] 18/5/2020 20:58

Hi, I understand a seat has to be booked on all trains from now. As we can guess, this is great news for trn !. No more going to the ticket office or even the ticket machine in the station. You need to get the trainline.com app and make sure you have purchased you ticket in advance.When this C-19 is passed, it will have become second nature.

A game changer imho.

[sphere25] 18/5/2020 15:38

And then....

The stock became even more expensive (in a flash) with an enormous rally from 350p to 421p currently. I don't have any position here. It is just fascinating to see how this one plays out with the exuberance filled elevated valuation versus a real mess in terms of the economy and new normal.

If you look at the headlines out there with concerns of a new wave of infections, a much deeper recession than expected (Buffet even alluding to a Depression and selling off cyclical stocks) and a very possible elevation of the US-China trade war, it is amazing to see how resilient the market is with the likes of TRN absolutely romping ahead in recovering the bulk of its losses.

It would appear Mr Market is absolutely convinced a second wave is out of the question and the new normal is more than manageable. Clearly liquidity has trumped the economic fundamentals with fund managers taking this view:

"The worse the news gets the more support there will be from central banks, and therefore more liquidity, as far as some investors are concerned, which is why they are buying"

Great! Right! Ha

I think the market is also assigning a strong (albeit speculative) possibility that a cure will be forthcoming with some of today's rally based on the Moderna vaccine news.

It all looks very precarious and perhaps too optimistic. The US is sat in a range at present with the market very tricky to call, but hell if they're going to keep pumping trillions into the system, surely you buy any weakness and even overvalued stocks like TRN rally.

It's a crazy ole world!

[primarch1] 15/5/2020 15:14

No revenue zero profit 50 million plus debt and no certainty of profits until 2022 just shows how fraudulent the market is

[privileged] 15/5/2020 15:13

it seems bonkers to me too. It's just a website and better to book direct with the train operators or use national rail to direct you to right place.
certainly not sure why >£1bn market cap.

[tenapen] 14/5/2020 17:01

I can not say why fund managers are invested. For me as a Joe public small investor, I am invested in the hope and expectations that it will be taken over like 'skyscanner.com'.
It may look expensive to us in the middle of a Covid pandemic !. With a bit of forward thinking and the British pound down the toilet, this could be seen as cheap to the Chinese !.

Imho only, no advice intended as I'm proved wrong more times than right.

[sphere25] 14/5/2020 13:54

This stock is bonkers expensive. FTSE250 is rolling over too and the stock still manages to remain resilient.

The institutional fund manglers buying here must believe a cure is on its way in the absolute near term.

[mallorca 9] 08/5/2020 09:50

Very frustrating short - but eventually it must freefall.

[tenapen] 07/5/2020 08:23

Sorry technovator,
I didn't intend to be sarcastic to you personaly, I was just trying to say TRN along with all the other transport related companies will be hit from C-19 and no need to veil.

Regards.

[buywell3] 07/5/2020 08:05

Impact of COVID-19 and outlook for FY 2021:

· Significant impact on trading in Q1 FY2021 to date as a result of COVID-19 lockdown, with UK and European passenger volumes currently down >95%


which means circ 4% of passengers currently travelling V previous Q1

and how long will this carry on ?

[tenapen] 07/5/2020 08:02

technovator,
Why did you use the word "veiled" ? we have been told not to leave the house for the past five weeks so its no surprise they have not been making money !. Don't forget TRN do not own the trains / stations they are just a app with rented office space in Edinburgh.

Regards.

[primarch1] 07/5/2020 07:58

No income higher debt less cash generated than last year and no outlook for 2021 bet it still goes up....