Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 28/2/2020 10:36

Loving this short :-)

[frugaltree3] 28/2/2020 07:29

Thanks, Ennismore are usually worth following - where do you see this data? I think that the next support should be the 100MA at 468 - does that sounds right?

[wantage] 27/2/2020 22:38

Shorts increasing - see Short tracker today.

[mallorca 9] 26/2/2020 09:59

Good post Frugal.

Davros … have you sold or even gone short ?

[frugaltree3] 26/2/2020 09:05

They will have to reveal if FY forecasts are intact with the trading update on 11th March? If they were trading well, KKR would not have ripped up the lock-in to sell in November.

Sites like traintickets.com are winning share easily from TRN as they offer split tickets - so the same product but at significantly lower cost. Likewise the rail operators offer ticket sales directly with no fee.

They will almost certainly blame Coronavirus rather than increasing competition but at 11x sales or 70x earnings there is no room for slippage, even a cautious outlook.

Where is the next support level on the chart please? I think the IPO price of 350p is a near term target - management were sellers there after all.

[mallorca 9] 26/2/2020 08:13

This one now falling nicely.
Train travel may well soon be stopped, or at least people advised to stay at home - due to virus.
The floods will also have caused many cancellations.
The full year results may be savage here.

[mallorca 9] 24/2/2020 21:06

Cheers,

nice DOW profit banked today.

Possibly more to come there.
Sneeked a little long on China at the USA close this evening.

[davr0s] 24/2/2020 19:45

Not even remotely bearish to me atm

[frugaltree3] 24/2/2020 19:39

Well played sir on your Dow short. TRN had modest fall today, not sure if its enough to make the chartists turn bearish yet?

Its still on 11x sales.

Here is an old quote from Sun Micro CEO post the tech mania of 2000,

"At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?"

[mallorca 9] 21/2/2020 08:28

My DOW short is looking promising.

[davr0s] 20/2/2020 19:26

Lol - desperate to find an angle on it going down. Still made ath intraday and closed up. Are all your trades like this ?

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 14:22

250k shares suddenly traded.
Look's like funds now beginning to offload.

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 14:04

Breakdown !

What a shame.

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 13:44

It does seem to be struggling to get beyond £5.60.

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 12:30

Money pouring into gold !

Tell's you that the big guy's see trouble ahead.

This virus is being played down to avoid public panic !

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 11:51

Frugal,
at the moment this one is 90% held by Fund Managers using you and others pension money.
Motive for acquiring the stock is that it will soon become one of the biggest shorts on the market and they can then make a fortune both shorting it themselves and in loaning out stock.

It's being manipulated and I'm sure will fall to circa 50p , however Davros is absolutely correct - by then shorters may all be out of funds having lost all hanging in there.

No logic to this one at the moment , just a case of not being too exposed or even trimming short's , and then piling in once the downward breakout occurs.

[frugaltree3] 20/2/2020 11:42

Interesting reading Sphere, it reminds me of LoopUp Group, it was going to dominate conference calls instead of train tickets and the shares just kept going for a while, none of it made sense, but the chart was a thing of beauty so it kept going up.

Oddly the management and PE backers didnt seem to share the enthusiasm, they kept selling down, ignoring the chart and taking huge profits. The people that got the management accounts were sellers.

Then it turned out that there are lots of conference call providers and people just want a cheap one that works.

So the timing is tricky but when the price becomes detached from reality and the insiders are eager sellers isn't that a good indication of whats coming?

[mallorca 9] 20/2/2020 11:10

Agree but I also feel that the general market is about to tank.

I am also shorting the DOW.

[sphere25] 20/2/2020 11:01

Travel ticket platform Trainline (TRN) could face greater competition but Peel Hunt says it still has the comfort of high barriers to entry.

Analyst James Lockyrt retained his ‘hold’ recommendation on the stock, which closed unchanged at 552p.

Lockyer said French train strikes would have a ‘material impact’ on its international business in the fourth quarter, and he has adjusted his 2020 estimates to take account of the need for greater marketing spending ‘to continue to expand internationally̵7;.

He also warned that ‘greater competition could emerge’ from Virgin and the Williams Rail Review, which wants to create more third-party companies like Trainline in order to improve the way people buy tickets.

‘In its largest market, the UK, the main barrier to entry for its peers is its legacy investment and large customer set, which should go a long way to protect its base,’ said Lockyer.

[davr0s] 20/2/2020 10:53

Yep 100%. I have no idea if the company is good or not. I just know if I get into enough trends, position size and manage risk then I will make money. Where I go wrong is starting to take an opinion or predict so I just don't do it

[sphere25] 20/2/2020 10:48

Further to the post below, beware the risks of shorting overvalued stocks with numerous risks. It really isn't the one way street you think. Longer term you could be right, but by the time that happens, a stock like this could shoot higher to a valuation way beyond your perception, tolerance and cause major losses in capitulating.

The stock is literally now trying to breakout again and make another all time high above 550p. Where does it end? Where is the top? Bonkers bullish fund manglers could take this anywhere in this market.

Shorts will need a profit warning in the short term to really change the trend here, but that might not happen. I'd wait for a firm trend change or the bad news to begin, miss some of the move and then short. If anything, I'd be more comfortable taking a short if it broke 400 than up here at 550.

Sounds daft doesn't it? It's all about risk management. This stock could top 30-50% higher than where it is and that would be very painful for shorts who are adding to their existing short positions. I don't want to sit through that with mounting losses - affects the whole psychology of trading.

Ultimately, a reality check will happen, but be careful to not lose your shirt chasing it.

The bullish train continues its motion in clobbering all shorts.


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Sphere25
15 Dec '19 - 15:02 - 23 of 93 Edit
0 0 0
I was looking at shorting this and AJB, posted on that board and will copy some of the comments across. I haven't shorted because it's far too risky atm, regardless of the valuations.

"Stocks are on an absolute tear out there!

Very hard to short in a bullish market like this. Pretty much all stocks get dragged higher with the wider marke re-ratings. This one and TRN are both very richly valued and are on the short list, but it's the wrong time and far too risky.

The recent events as well as the seasonal bullish bias just mean the majority of stocks will keep moving higher. Expensive ratings will get more expensive and that's just the dynamic of the market in the short run. You just cannot fight that, better to move aside and let the train roll.

There will come a time when that chart and the wider market isn't so bullish and the market gets jitters. That will be the time to short - have to wait though!"

On this one specifically, I'd rather miss the first part of the move and wait for that chart to break down before going short. Otherwise, it can become an infinite type loss, you have no idea how far up these stocks can move, particularly considering how bullish the markets are.

There were big moves coming into the election and some whopping one's on the result too. Clearly will get some profit taking along the way but the trend is going to be higher as all stocks get dragged higher with the optimism. It will take a disastrous trading update to change that in such a bullish environment.

The other thing to bear in mind with this stock is how sharp the moves are - they're bonkers spikes! If this breaks higher and keeps spiking, it could literally end up anywhere.

One to watch and wait for an entry for me. No position yet.

[davr0s] 19/2/2020 21:51

I've got a gstop on this one - I will use them when available, especially US where the gstop is quite tight in many shares because of increased liquidity. Tend to not short and certainly not in strong markets like we are in at the moment - like trying to walk into a headwind

[frazboy] 19/2/2020 19:05

DavROs,

I’m curious, do you run G Stops on your longs or just your (occasional) shorts?

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 10:43

M'mm

selling now beginning.