Trainline Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 10:23

Once the funds start off loading it will collapse.

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 10:17

I'm beginning to feel a sharp drop.

Hope I'm right.

I assume that many are now short this.

[frugaltree3] 19/2/2020 09:04

They will have to confirm in March that they have hit consensus numbers and give some comment on outlook though? So we're looking for £260m rev delivering eps of 7.45p. Currently trading on 74x that number, which seems quite a lot, unless TRN is the new Amazon. The volume is also very thin now suggesting that there is little substance behind the recent jump and that its not institutional buying.

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 08:13

It certainly is.

[davr0s] 19/2/2020 08:06

Well it's defying your logic

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 08:04

Yes DavROS, you are correct to follow the trend.
The market can often defy logic and this is being manipulated upwards.
The same fund managers will soon be the ones driving it downwards to extinction.

[davr0s] 19/2/2020 08:02

All this opinion, yet it posts another ATH

[mallorca 9] 19/2/2020 07:49

Frugal,

March is only a Trading Update - so once again will focus on revenue.
'Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity'.

The full year results are in May.
The funds will dump these before then.

With a £2.6 billion market cap, loss making, debt, no divi and Virgin entering the sector, this will fall like a lead balloon.

Much of this stock is tightly held by large funds at the moment and they are coordinating the squeeze up. They know that shorts are hurting and are paying daily fees.

At a point (probably not too far away), the funds will sell out and go short.
This share will fall to a more realistic market cap of circa £250m …. so a share price of around 50p.

[davr0s] 18/2/2020 11:53

Doesn't matter to me - all this analysis and opinion and in the end price is the only thing that pays (or not). Did I see another ATH earlier ?

[frugaltree3] 18/2/2020 09:27

I always use traintickets.com now as they offer split tickets which come with decent savings. But there are host of others too. TRN has a dominant position thanks to slick marketing and I see that chartists like the momentum, but the shares are now on c.50x!? The PE backers KKR have run for the hills, they even tore up the lock-in to dump their remaining shares in November. The house brokers are having to push up target prices to keep it on a Buy rating. Targets range from 430 to 535, so we're above even the ultrabulls here. Ennismore are short, usually right. The results on 12th March have to be out of this world to keep this rating - this must be a short here? Here is Bryce Elder from FT in Jan too;

[davr0s] 18/2/2020 08:34

Lol - ATH yesterday and people calling the top. Shorts feeling it?

[hjs] 18/2/2020 08:31

From chart point of view, IMO share price has peaked and most likely drop till results.

[mallorca 9] 18/2/2020 08:15

Beginning to feel that TRN may have peaked.

[onjohn] 18/2/2020 07:42

Yes G4M looks a corker

[davr0s] 17/2/2020 15:28

Yeah whatever - I raise you G4M. UPGS is off my radar now - broke trend so loads of supply. Ah the Paul Scott pump - that may push prices up short term but tbh Scotty has had some shockers over the years

[onjohn] 17/2/2020 12:19

Davros

UPGS on a flyer


I see that Paul Scott at stockopedia will be having a chat with the UPGS CEO on thursday to talk about China supply chains. Should be interesting to find out more from the interview.
UPGS could absolutely fly ona PE of 6 from memory

[davr0s] 17/2/2020 10:11

ATH - price doesn't lie. Follow the trend

[davr0s] 13/2/2020 13:21

Don't worry about me - I systematically trade so I know exactly where and when to get out. I have no opinion on the company or share. If it holds this level today I have a 2nd add point. I'm more concerned for those trying to short a share breaking out....

[mallorca 9] 13/2/2020 09:45

Declared short interest has increased.

[mallorca 9] 13/2/2020 09:25

Davros ….

I don't usually and probably entered this one too soon.
Happy to cover it (I added very slightly to my short on that surge).
Well within my available funds and I'm totally confident that this will fall heavily once fundamentals begin to come out.
Target …. less that £1.

[mallorca 9] 13/2/2020 09:20

Many coming home from work tonight will see their shorts knocked out - and maybe even a big fall on the day !!

[davr0s] 13/2/2020 09:18

No idea - looks like a good old fashioned break to me. Just ride trend - opinions count for nothing. I also trade full time. Curious how you make consistent money trading against the trend though

[mallorca 9] 13/2/2020 09:15

Well that would have knocked out a lot of shorts !
Guess that was the plan !
What a market we operate in - I'm lucky that I do this full time and am able to react.

[davr0s] 13/2/2020 08:45

ATH now :)