Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aimmafia] 12/10/2020 22:49

I bring profit and good entry points. You do not.

[nocents] 12/10/2020 21:45

Not worth the effort mate.You bring only darkness.
Stick with diurnal.

[aimmafia] 12/10/2020 21:11

I have my profit - I shall earn more profit over there. And I shall earn more profit when I come back here. Some could call it successful trading actually..... please correct me if I'm wrong. I will never deramp a share and wish you all the best. Trin will do just fine.

[nocents] 12/10/2020 19:30

Whilst you are are here I want to wish you the best with your other investments. Good to have got out of Pog the dog on a good profit :-)
The market is very much a casino at the moment I feel.
Trin is solid. Safe. Now has excellent prospects for production growth. On and offshore ( Jubilee and Galeota eventually.) Cash for acquisition of new sub 20,000 bopd licences. Drilling starts in January. New HAW. No SPT nor debt. Breakeven of $20-21 2020 ( IMO). Very low capex. Cash generation very high at the moment. No institutions have reduced and one has re-entered bigtime. MOU with Cairn interesting if licences are granted. SPT in 2 years will not be reinstated. They don’t do that. Energy minister admitted it this week. At some stage Trinity will have to rerate as as the present price is a farthing and makes me wonder if it is being held there. I did not see ANY sells to warrant the drop today.
Q3 results due. No SPT and realized price of $37-8 a barrel on $21b/e means cash. 8.9p is a superb entry point.No ramping. SPT had to go to move Trin on.

[oilinvestoral] 12/10/2020 19:20

He's gone to bestow diurnal group with his wealth of knowledge and wisdom! I can imagine a few of the longterm investors over there are wondering what they have done to deserve AimMafia! LOL

[nocents] 12/10/2020 19:12

Oilinvestor.
You hit it. Just baseless ramping.
He has been here before.
I really don’t like being personal -in life or on a BB-but sometimes people force you to be. Too many amoral trolls now visiting Trin’s sites.Didn’t used to be this bad.

[p5tvr] 12/10/2020 18:19

I told you lot ages ago that AimMafia was just a ramper.

[spellbrook] 12/10/2020 18:04

@Trinity_PLC #TRIN Trinity partners with the Mayaro Past Pupils Association in the Mayaro/Guayaguayare communities in recognising educational excellence at the 2020 Secondary Education Assessment Examination

[oilinvestoral] 12/10/2020 17:00

AimMafia what happened about wanting 15-20p before selling? Or was that just baseless ramping ? Answer on a post card please

[nocents] 12/10/2020 15:32

Lol
Under the bridge obviously not dry enough today.

[aimmafia] 12/10/2020 15:13

The reason for the drop is because the traders have bought in and taken their profit and no more substantial news has arrived (yet) and LTH have been left holding the baby. I have now taken my profit above 9p and sold my 575k shares after buying in sub 7.5p. - I will be back very soon but not just yet. I dont see trin dropping below 8.5p and the very first catalyst will send this flying.Trin will be successful and the share price will absolutely be in the teens soon enough. I am currently holding DNL with 61.5p average now and hope to return to trin with an even bigger investment if I don't miss the boat of course. GLA and I will be back soon.

[galaga] 12/10/2020 14:24

We find ourselves only really a penny up from where we were before half yearlys and the optimism that came with that...

[nocents] 12/10/2020 11:28

Sensible reasons as to why the drop?
I don’t see sells .

[pavey ark] 12/10/2020 11:03

They are in the process of getting the Galeota license renewed and Cairn are finalising the sale of their Senegal (offshore) assets.....when these are completed, probably Q4, then the way is set for a farm out of Tgal.

I wonder how many have looked at the Cairn sale in any detail ?
I wonder how many have tried to put a price on 30% of the entire Galeota license ?

Whatever Cairn (or anyone else) pays then that puts a very firm value on TRIN's remaining share.

Shareholders shouldn't have to wait until the oil flows from TGAL to see a share price rise.

Give it some thought....farm out payment, valuation of TRIN's share , current cash..........I think you'll find it comes to more than $45m (current market cap) with all the rest in for LESS than nothing.

Just saying .

[spellbrook] 11/10/2020 15:56

Just 1 MOU with the giant CAIRN ENERGY is BOOM

[pavey ark] 09/10/2020 16:36

wwick, very sorry, you are absolutely correct .....(note to self: read the posts more carefully)

Anyway, even allowing for my stupidity, no great harm done.

My main point was not so much about the time to get the drilling costs back but more a gentle reminder to the bb (if required) that with all the talk of big new deals and opportunities the onshore assets can lead to much wealth in a very safe and low risk way.

[wwick] 09/10/2020 16:33

Oilfield services are having to sharpen their pencils, if this flows through it will help reduce costs.

[wwick] 09/10/2020 16:19

PA I think you interpreted the statement I shared as mine and a response to you. Sorry if I caused confusion, it was not intended. I was simply sharing relevant content in the hope it would help others. Dwight Mahabir, Chairman of the Energy Chamber of T&T can only talk in general terms and it was his statement.

[pavey ark] 09/10/2020 15:32

wwick, I take your point but with my fairly conservative figures the payback period for a $1.5m ,150 bpd initial production HAW is three years ...BUT..after three years a SCADA fitted well should have a depletion rate of c. 5% or less so it's a bit harsh to write off all your drilling costs in three years when at the the end if three years you would have c. 85% of your initial production.

I do agree that whatever the economics of the drilling you don't want to be paying SPT on your three year old 120 bpd well.

Write off the cost over 3,5 or even 10 years but regardless of the period the returns look excellent for what are very low risk investments.....without SPT.

[aimmafia] 09/10/2020 15:19

Just realistic. I'm hoping the update has some fresh info

[archie61] 09/10/2020 14:56

Positive Aim! anyone would think you've sold out lol.

[aimmafia] 09/10/2020 13:08

The only fear now, is the lack of news after the update which of course will be positive, as we have seen the share price will retrace before the next leg up. Hopefully it doesn't repeat history and will move up nicely.Hopefully the BOD have some decent newsflow and we maintain current course.

[pavey ark] 09/10/2020 10:20

I've been thinking about their boring old onshore drilling programme as it has been largely ignored recently.

On closer examination of the figures I am convinced that they are simply waiting for the licence agreements to be finalised and the 3D data to be assessed because with the SPT issue apparently put to bed I find the figures pretty compelling.

In May Cenkos provided a very useful breakdown of the cash flow at various oil prices.
At $40 they estimated that the figure was $7.35 /barrel(without hedging) but that doesn't tell the whole story.
These figures involved an op ex of $14.8 and a G&A of $5.1
The onshore op ex is less than this but the royalty payments are higher.
The really important figure is the G&A because with SCADA there is less manpower required over the entire onshore and a lot of this $5.1 is fixed so, up to a certain point, additional onshore production would not carry any G&A.

The consequence of this is that even if I round everything DOWN I get a free cash flow of over $10 for new wells with oil at $40 (I could make a case for a higher figure but let's go with this).

Thing get better when you consider that there are tax concessions over the first two years of a new well (will this change?).

HAWs are new and they want to get the angle higher, even horizontal, so returns (good though they are) may not be the main objective.

None of the this is dependent on additional events taking place.....the oil is there...they have the cash...they have the skills.