Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 12/9/2019 11:25

TRIN is IMHO very cheap relative to what we know now, our production and cash generation. If HAWS unlock the T&T fiscal regime then we can start talking about the numbers that we were discussing while tearing up to 27p last year....

[nocents] 12/9/2019 11:19

Still cheap as chips. I doubt for long.

[m5] 12/9/2019 11:03

Moved up, but it really is a cheap as chips, what an opportunity.

[spellbrook] 12/9/2019 10:49

Trinity all set up.............



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[spellbrook] 12/9/2019 07:36

Cash is king

[imjustdandy] 12/9/2019 06:17

This will re rate when you least expect it to. 11.25p is a ridiculous price but a hell of an opportunity

[mark10101] 11/9/2019 21:11

It really feels like the key to unlocking T&T’s current fiscal regime.

[otemple3] 11/9/2019 20:49

Totally agree - it feels like the long awaited plan is finally coming together. If it all comes off then Nocents will be well and truly proven right when he repeatedly says 'now is the time to buy.....'

[mark10101] 11/9/2019 20:33

OT3, I have been getting to grips with the implications of HAWS, it was always clear that for the relatively small increase in cost the highly increased production was well worth it (if it works for T&T geology). However after Bruce and Jeremy’s presentations I am really grasping what they are saying re mitigating SPT. With the first year being royalty free this makes HAWs and then the horizontal wells extremely attractive with their turbo charged first year!

I really don’t think the market grasps how good a shape TRIN is in atm and what the implication is for the new technologies being deployed.

[otemple3] 11/9/2019 20:03

Marvelman, totally agree but do wonder if the price languishes down here if they might just do it anyway. My personal view is if all the tech enhances work, just keep ramping up the drilling, get TGAL done and do the occasional tender offer at a nice premium (with all major shareholders participating). I'll happily tender a chunk of my shares at £1 in a couple of years ;-)Just watched the latest presentation and the financials of HAW are phenomenal - 40% increase in cost, similar time to drill and 3* the production. Correct me if I am wrong but does that not mean each one could add c.8% to production (at current rates) for £1.6m. If it is successful they clearly won't drill 8 this year (based on the comment about rethinking approach) but even if the managed to get 3 done this year and 8 next. The numbers would be fantastic.

[m5] 11/9/2019 18:20

Ot3, thank you for taking the time to post.

[marvelman] 11/9/2019 17:56

Otemple...many thanks for your time in posting such a detailed report (my belatedth thanks to nocents too)...One observation...The problem with buy backs is that it gives the BOD, family and "friends" a higher percentage of the issued capital (assuming they cancel them). Makes it easier for a management buy out (should they have that in mind at any time)

[spellbrook] 11/9/2019 17:14

Oil Capital Conference
12 September 2019 | London

[spellbrook] 11/9/2019 17:13

Bruce Dingwall, executive chairman of Trinity Exploration & Production PLC (LON:TRIN), speaks to Proactive London's Andrew Scott soon after the release of their interim results to 30 June 2019.

Production averaged 3,008 bopd, a like-for-like increase of 9% versus the same period last year and Dingwall expects that to rise in the second half of this year as they kick off onshore drilling.

Production has already begun from the first new infill well of the campaign with production from the second well expected imminently.

''It's very much a production-led business'', Dingwall says.

''We judge ourselves on production and cashflow - that's it''

[nocents] 11/9/2019 17:08

The Grinch certainly holds a helluva lot of shares. Miserable mpther.

[nocents] 11/9/2019 16:39

OT
Congrats. No. 2. Hope all good. Greatest joys of my life-being a Dad to 2 ( grown up now). Would do it again if could! Fantastic.
Hope tgis works oit for you to make you a wealthy and secure young family if not tge case already. Great update from you.
Trin is not the issue with s/p. It is an “immature̶1; market.
All is in place. I would have bought at 11.18 today if I could but no dosh !!

[mark10101] 11/9/2019 15:57

OT3, an excellent update with some very interesting bits I had not heard or considered. Much appreciated.

[spellbrook] 11/9/2019 15:39

ot3

thank you

[otemple3] 11/9/2019 15:32

Apologies, this is quite long....

My thoughts on yesterday but first some context - i have held since not long after Trinity came back from suspension and it has been a roller-coaster. This is the largest investment i have made to date and was my first in oil/gas so i am no expert!

Heading into the meeting yesterday i reflected on my holding and had been wondering if with what i know now i would still invest. This was specifically around SPT which when i originally invested had believed was going to be reformed but clearly has not - i planned to ask a question about whether with SPT still in place, should Trin should use the strong balance sheet to diversify into a friendlier territory.

The presentation itself was superb, by far the most informative i have been to and i came away with a clear understanding of the strategy. The key point i took was that management are not dwelling on SPT, they are coming up with strategies to maximise cash flows in the current environment and any change is a (massive) bonus. They are really well positioned in Trinidad and see a huge number of opportunities to transform the business so no need to look to other geographical regions.

Key points:

- HAW - early days but Bruce is clearly very happy. They will not rush the results, they want to make sure everything is done properly so we will probably not hear for 6-8 weeks (my interpretation) but will hear this quarter. One of the key benefit is by getting oil out of the ground sooner the tax breaks in years 1&2 are maximised boosting FCF / payback.


SCADA - not something that excited me until last night but clearly this 'could' result in significant savings / production increases - i think Bruce said on two wells they have seen a 10% increase in production and with more 'tweaks' could be more. In 3-4 months i think he said it could be rolled out to 50-60% of the wells. It is clearly going well as Heritage have also started trialling it on 4 wells (from our recommendation). Have had a lot of help from Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC) who use it extensively and a delegation are going out to one of their sites to learn how to use it for further benefits - very good of them


Heritage - awful news about chief exec which has obviously put things on a back burner (exploration wise). Still see lots of opportunities ahead and it is clear that technologically Trin are one of the most advanced, so working together (as seen with SCADA), is a positive sign for future opportunities.


Targets - 10% + growth discussed but not really now considered the key metric (think they will need to make that clear in an RNS as it is oft quoted). The business is all about maximising cash flow so at times the business will scale back investment (like the 1st half) and at others ramp it up. All about FCF.


FCF - have identified a number of ways to maximise e.g. HAW, Finanical levers (hedging), operational levers (further reduce costs). Great graph explaining FCF at 5 price points and another showing impact these levers should have - worth going for this alone


Distributions - discussed at every board meeting and something Bruce is very keen to happen soon. He said based on their plans they will have a stupid amount of cash on the balance sheet if they don't do something in the next year or two (buy backs, dividends or maybe acquisitions). My money would be on buy backs (hopefully a tender at a premium) if they price stays this low!


Share Price - clearly not happy where it is but some good context given around it and from his previous experience. If the business progresses as planned it will re-rate but sentiment is a funny thing


Exploration - good progress being made with planning, again looking at all the best tech to maximise returns and some good discussion about this but my notes are pretty weak in this area


In summary, i thought both Bruce and Jeremy came across very well and now have a very clear plan on how to move the business forward in the existing environment. Some very good questions were asked and all answered well IMHO. I am particularly pleased that finally they seem to have mastered good clear communication as this has not been great over the last few years. As a result I am more bullish (and informed) than i have been at any point since my first purchase.

Sorry this was so long! Hope it of some use to some of you.

[otemple3] 11/9/2019 14:21

Nocents - sorry i missed you too. I couldn't get wifi to work and with my second child due this week i couldn't risk not being contactable, so left straight after. I thought i knew what you looked like from a previous session but clearly not as didn't recognise you when asking the questions. I was the good looking one towards the front :-). I was sat between Malcy (across the aisle) and the new accountant/ analyst.

Not got a lot to add to what has already been posted but will try and put down my thoughts about last night imminently

[spellbrook] 11/9/2019 13:56

Maybe a divi to come with the company 23% owned nice extra income

[mark10101] 11/9/2019 13:43

From the video Bruce mentions we have an 8 well program but if the HAW comes in as hoped they will adapt the drill program and switch to all HAW, interesting few months ahead.

[mark10101] 11/9/2019 12:58

Sounds like there is a lot going on, cash flow accretive (with continued investment) and the constraints of a weak balance sheet removed, bring out the main sail!