Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nafafa] 31/7/2018 07:42

Except the business is now de risked and can bring forward investment. Might even get to pick up the balance of shares I was after for 15p, or less, which would be an added bonus!

[marvelman] 31/7/2018 07:22

Mount Teide
9 Jul '18 - 12:05 - 1214 of 1607
0 6 0
WITJ

I still hold 800,000 TRIN shares

MT

Your input is always factual although, perhaps understandably, rather pointedly highlighting the merits of TXP against TRIN. Your posts remain valid nevertheless and highly respected even on this battered TRIN forum. May I ask if you are still holding a position in TRIN?. Whether you do or not I do believe there has been a significant rotation out of TRIN to TXP following the disillusionment with the TRIN BOD and 800,000 shares,if sold, would have been part of the said rotation into TXP and add some weight to my supposition.

[diseasex] 30/7/2018 13:15

Nice bullish chart on WTI. not so much on TRIN.

[mount teide] 30/7/2018 11:40

Despite all the operational and financial progress since March 2017 together with the oil price rising nearly 50%, it is disappointing to note that the share price is back where it was 16 months ago.

Without that huge, heavily discounted and largely unnecessary placing the share price may well have been North of 30p now.

[mark10101] 27/7/2018 11:25

Who knows Law, we will only find that out in September. As I believe you are pointing to, with high oil price profitability and previous cash balance we should have seen our cash relatively flat. We know they are investing in infrastructure and drilled two new wels as well as preparing for future infil wells. Snapshots of cash balances can be misleading. September should paint a clearer picture.

My focus is on the statement below, the closing comment from Bruce who decided it was worth diluting both his core holding and future management incentive plan to get his hands on cash now.

“as we move forward debt free and ideally positioned to take advantage of future opportunities as the environment in Trinidad & Tobago evolves”

[lw425] 27/7/2018 10:58

Look can someone please explain:

End March cash balance $12.2m

End June cash balance $9.1m

WTF!!!

All in a high oil price period.

I thought this company made monthly net cashflow (after debt repayments).

[mark10101] 27/7/2018 10:55

MT, come back in a month and post comparisons, like you say it is amazing how quickly portfolios can swing. With TXP getting very close to TRINS enterprise value the valuation gap in TRINs share price is presenting an opportunity IMHO.

[mount teide] 27/7/2018 10:48

marvelman - 'There is surely still a hefty overhang being sold off by the fortunate few who can make a profit from the many of us who have paid the price of their good fortune.'

Spot on - the fortunate few who never had any interest whatsoever in TRIN other than to take advantage of the short term money making opportunity offered to them by management in return for supporting the huge placing at a massive discount to the recent highs WANT THEIR FAT PROFITS NOW - until their greed is fully sated the share price will be going nowhere.


What a difference 2 months and a huge surprise placing has made to my investments!

13.5p TXP - May
18.5p TXP - July
+37%

27.5p TRIN - May
16.5p TRIN - July
-40%

Buying TRIN at the peak in May would today require a 133% share price increase just to match the performance of my TXP investment over the last few months.

AIMHO/DYOR

From an investor still smarting at being hoodwinked by the TRIN management as a result of them consistently highlighting that debt was being reduced far faster than planned - the result? A share-price increase to 27.5p allowing the management to deliver a 15p surprise placing for themselves and friends to benefit from. The benefit of hindsight suggests systematic manipulation of the share price from 27.5p by some of those who would benefit from the placing.

Don't expect any help or sympathy from the FCA for what has gone on - they consider that a drop in suspicious trades prior to the announcement of equity placings from 30% to 20% of ALL transactions over the last 10 years is progress!

If their forensic analysis is so good that they are able to accurately measure the level of insider trading activity - it begs the question why are so few people ever charged for these offences? Answers on a postcard to the SFO!

The long in the tooth cynic might suggest it could have something to do with the fact that the FCA are funded in FULL by the very industry they have responsibility to REGULATE, and it wouldn't be good for business to have too many shysters exposed!

[marvelman] 26/7/2018 15:40

There is surely still a hefty overhang being sold off by the fortunate few who can make a profit from the many of us who have paid the price of their good fortune. I also believe there is or has been a rotation into the much plugged TXP from here.

[dunderheed] 26/7/2018 15:33

Exactly in 6 months time I have a feeling this will look a lot more different and in a positive way!!

[otemple3] 26/7/2018 15:30

Sentiment and lack of exposure imho. It will come good, as fundamentals will shine through. Despite oils strong performance, investors are not yet interested but that time will come. BS is strong and production is growing so I am just going to sit and wait for what will ultimately be a rewarding pay day!

[nafafa] 26/7/2018 15:21

The placing out of the way should have left Trin with £10 mil plus in the bank and debt free. On current production levels and oil price the post tax profit must be in excess of £15 mil pa and yet the share price languishes. What’s holding the share price back - sentiment, lack of exposure or something more sinister?

[diseasex] 26/7/2018 13:42

time to change a broker then I would say

[chrisshaw] 26/7/2018 13:40

Is anyone still waiting to receive their money back from the placing. I applied for 40,000 shares (£6,000) but only got 13,500 in the placing so am due back around £4,000.I am with selftrade, I have been told they cannot give me a date wheh the money will be returned. My wife is wating for £6,000 to be returned.

[dunderheed] 26/7/2018 13:17

1593, agree

[mark10101] 26/7/2018 13:13

MT that was my point he now has a relatively small holding. The pain was felt before coming to AIM with the purpose of raising capital. Anyway I think all T&T companies face a promising future. I prefer TRIN due to ability to now take advantage of any opportunities that may arise over the coming months. Let hope all prosper.

[marvelman] 26/7/2018 12:58

Well lets hope its not a placing based on a 28% discount to the prevailing share price Mount Teide...:-))

[mount teide] 26/7/2018 12:36

Ross - Most, if not ALL investment decisions are based on forward looking statements and projections.

Many might consider high conviction small cap O&G sector specialists North Energy buying over 11% of TXP during the last year as committing very strongly to having a high expectation of the future performance, particularly since TXP has an alternative option to a placing over the next 6-12 months - namely to reduce their production development programme to just 17 - 22 wells between now and the end of 2019 - still close to double that of TRIN.

My own view is that a TXP placing over the next 6 months is unlikely, particularly if the oil price continues to strengthen.

Would i support a modest placing to separately fund the ultra high impact, low cost Ortoire exploration programme - you bet! - the reserves potential of each of the 5 targets is so massive, it would be a no brainer for most shareholders - particularly with T&T having the only world class LNG export terminal built in the Western Hemisphere in the last 40 years to 2010, but a 3-5 mile pipeline tie-in away.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 26/7/2018 12:06

Ross - investing is all about risk/reward - in a strong and rising oil price environment the economics strongly favour drilling over sitting on cash - as even the still loss making US shale industry continues to demonstrate, by borrowing hundreds of $billions to continue drilling.

Last time i looked TXP with a net debt of circa £5.4m and a debt to capital ratio of circa 34% was below that of BP(38% with net borrowings of £40bn) and equal to the 34% average of the major multi nationals - some might say good company for a business with a £23m market cap to be mirroring !

[mount teide] 26/7/2018 11:35

Ross - it depends on a number of unknown factors - notably the performance of the remaining 7 wells that will enter production during H2/2018 and the average price of oil over the next 6 months. Regardless, TXP looks very well set to go into next year throwing off cash and well on top of its debt.

If the performance of the remaining 7 wells in 2018 is similar to the 7 deeper play wells on production since June 2017 and the POO continues to average circa $75, this would increasingly suggest a cash raise as unlikely. Additionally, as an alternative TXP could elect to drill say 10-15 development wells next year rather than the up to 20 wells planned.

We know the oil is there - with 208 identified production development drilling locations, that's a 10 year inventory of 20 infill wells a year!

Like the US shale oil industry - its just of matter of drilling since the oil is there - unlike most of the US shale oil industry TXP is generating very serious cash flow at $60-$70 oil!

The ultra high impact Ortoire exploration prospects are low cost and according to management's technical evaluation "low risk". TXP say that each of the 5 prospects has the potential to exceed the nearby Carapal ridge - that suggests from Jan 2019 TXP are targeting 5X Carapal Ridge at 108 mmboe = ie in excess of 500 mmboe or $1b-$$1.5b (£700m-£1b) value at just $2-$3/boe.

[dunderheed] 26/7/2018 10:59

He he lol!

[diseasex] 26/7/2018 10:37

how do you value mcap of TXP and TRIN ? Whats your target