Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 24/8/2018 12:15

Bought a few more earlier, Time we got back to 26/42p trading range!

Meanwhile (SOS)is very much in play, increasing volumes on the breakout, next ASOS many say, if so, should be a big mover, also (AOR)being bought on the pull back and (INFA) chart looking good on a breakout dyor as usual

[mark10101] 24/8/2018 10:12

DH, no worries, a good SPT reform will make a huge difference to TRIN and a major catalyst. It has been promised for years but with the implementation of the royalties on gas in December the fiscal landscape in looking conducive to it atm. Hopefully exciting times ahead for TRIN in the coming months.

[dunderheed] 24/8/2018 09:32

Yep mark looking good and thanks for the direction re suppl taxes.

[mark10101] 24/8/2018 09:21

Tight spread, I may have been a day early with my call, looking promising for a move up from here.

[spellbrook] 24/8/2018 09:18

Some early volume today ...soon be September update

[spellbrook] 24/8/2018 07:57

U.S. Oil Data Has Markets Confused

That meant that lots of crude oil was taken out of inventory and processed into refined products. It’s no surprise then that gasoline stocks rose, and the build was counter-seasonal, which pushed gasoline stocks above the five-year average. But analysts aren’t concerned that this is a bearish signal. “We expect the refinery maintenance season to begin soon, correcting product oversupply,” Standard Chartered wrote in a note.

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/8/2018 14:18

"In another evidence of reservoir depletion, the gas to oil ratio GOR jumped in the Permian by 20% in 1 month. Production from new wells instead is slumping. Beginning of September, these numbers should show off in official numbers, which implies a massive production slump."

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/8/2018 13:57

There's more shares around now so may see less volatility. But the familiar pattern is pull back, consolidate and then rise again. share price should just start trending up as indigestion of placing passes.

Inevitability, as an oil producer, Trinity is sensitive to oil price sentiment. Mostly buys today /yesterday, I assume partly on back of oil prices modest move up, after the news of the unexpectedly large storage draw on Wednesday night.

[diseasex] 23/8/2018 11:52

remmeber volatility increase is double edged sword. definitely breaking out of consolidation will be a big mvoe though, I'd just wish a trend than a spike..

[mark10101] 23/8/2018 11:39

Look back at TRINS trading history. If my recollection is correct we have fallen on the majorly of trading updates. Hopefully TRIN have finally got to the stage where they can positively surprise the market, so we could get an extra boost then. However again if my recollection is correct TRINs biggest moves have been post a period of tight trading like this and on no new news. The valuations gap is there and once upward momentum is achieved I can see this well into the 20's on no news.

[diseasex] 23/8/2018 11:31

nope, it won't happen until earnings or update..

[mark10101] 23/8/2018 07:49

I have a feeling today they will loose control of the order they are working atm. Yesterday was a tremor into the 17’s which they got back down. Any decent buying will be a lot harder.

[diseasex] 22/8/2018 16:07

I think these big guys are still selling..

[spellbrook] 22/8/2018 12:51

Oil Prices Rise After API Reports Large Crude Draw

[spellbrook] 22/8/2018 11:47

oil looking perky

[charlieej] 22/8/2018 10:21

Answering for someone else you should make sure you are right, leaving out taxes and posting false free cash flow figures is pretty basic and low grade. I'm invested but hate to see people writing poorly researched ramps.

[oilandgas1] 22/8/2018 09:04

This tax is imposed on gross income derived from the disposal of crude oil less royalty and overriding royalty as set out under the Petroleum Act. It is computed separately with respect to land, marine operations and marine operations in a deepwater block. There are tax credits available of 20% against the Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) assessed on qualifying expenditure incurred in respect of approved development activity in mature marine or land oil fields or on the acquisition of machinery and plants for use in approved enhanced oil recovery projects. SPT applies at increasing rates when the price of crude exceeds $50. SPT paid is deductible from PPT liability.

Petroleum companies are also subject to a petroleum impost, production levy and unemployment levy, but they are exempted from the Business Levy.

[mark10101] 22/8/2018 08:53

DH, there is a piece about SPT in the header. The hope is this will be reformed shortly. This will be transformational for TRIN.

[dunderheed] 22/8/2018 08:02

Can someone clarify please regarding spt?
Is it only applied to the incremental revenues above a certain base sale price or is it applied to the total revenues once the sale price exceeded?
Thanks in advance.

[oilandgas1] 22/8/2018 08:02

A Supplemental Petroleum Tax (S.P.T.) charged on production of crude oil and based on an oil price sensitive rate structure. ( 0% for crude prices under US$13.01 a barrel to a maximum of 35% for those over US$49.50 a barrel.

Currently 22.5%

[oilandgas1] 22/8/2018 07:55

Hi guys,

Some tweaking and now including SpT:


In the second half of 2018 most months have 31 days, so using that as an assumption as 31$ all in cost base pb. So 2871x31days= 89001

25000 x (59-31) = 0.7m
64001 x (65-31) = 2.176m
Total = 2.88m

89001boe pcm
25000 hedged
64001 not hedged
WTI a been has been above $65 for H2

I assume SpT at 22.5% is then applied but only above 50$ not for the whole amount

Dyor

[mark10101] 22/8/2018 06:20

WITJ, in my view that is a good (but conservative) figure to go on atm. SPT reform and the expiration of the hedge should push us beyond $2m/Month at current oil price. If some of the racier oil price numbers show up at the end of the year/early next year things should get very interesting here. As ever DYOR to verify these numbers.

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/8/2018 00:40

Most recent drilling details were posted by Spellbrook in post 1771. Via Malcys blog I think.

Mark, royalties are included in breakeven. Slide 17:


"3. Operating earnings (US$ mm): Revenues less Royalties less Opex less G&A less Other Expenses (Crude oil derivatives)"




Property tax is new, so not included in $31 quote for 2017 breakeven I think. SPT isn't included either because it wasn't payable in the example (realised price was under $50).

SPT should be offset somewhat by capex spend going forward though as drilling is now ongoing.

However, about a quarter of production is hedged I think, and ceiling is US$59.80:

"Trinity has entered into a zero cost collar with a WTI price floor of US$45/bbl and a cap of US$59.80 for 25,000 bbls per month over the period from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2018"

And Petrotrin don't pay full wti price to Trinidad oilers, although we avoid transportation costs.

How's this then?
2781 x 30 days x (58-31)=$2.2m -SPT(22.5%)= $1.7m

So maybe then, rounding it down a bit, $1.5m of free cash per month when wti= $65 ???

[oilandgas1] 21/8/2018 23:58

Mark101 - can you please update the calc for FCF based on the royalties and current SpT 22.5%?