Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 16/8/2018 07:54

Well they also did say they already had a fantastic inventory ready to drill didnt they?
Correct me if wrong?

[whiskeyinthejar] 16/8/2018 07:53

They said they were going to buy the 3D seismic study. Worth waiting for this I think, as it should help identify more accurate drill sites and get on with horizontal drilling.

[dunderheed] 16/8/2018 07:39

Could have done with some near term spud news as well?

[husted] 15/8/2018 06:11

MT, they might reply and point you towards the presentation which explains why the placing. Or point out that the dilution is nowhere near 40%. But they are likely to ignore emails that are argumentative I think.

If you really have a question, why not just phone them up?

[mark10101] 15/8/2018 05:30

I have a view the pen is going to be mightier than the drill bit in T&T in the coming momths, TRINs management are now well positioned to demonstrate that.

[mount teide] 15/8/2018 00:02

TXP in actual fact closed 1 v 1 / 18.2p v 18.5p (1 on 19p, 1 on 19.5p, rest 20p or above)

The MM's played the sellers like a finely tuned grand piano today - pushing the bid down early doors but keeping the offer relatively high - most of the traders who sold, with very, very few exceptions, already face paying circa 5%-10% more than their selling price to get back in. The CEO to thunderous applause today from shareholders listening in to his Proactive interview confirmed that the 2019 Ortoire ultra high impact exploration programme targeting potentially very large reserves will be funded from cash flow.

He also said TXP is to lift from 7 to 11, the number of new wells they will drill/bring into production during the remaining 4.5 months of H2/2018!

My question to the managers of my TRIN investment which has seen zero capital growth over the last 18 months is: how is it you need 18 months to drill 10 new wells and in order to fund this need to dilute my shareholding by 40% at a 40%+ discount to the previous share price high?

[diseasex] 14/8/2018 13:21

txp for 17 lol.

[spellbrook] 14/8/2018 09:31

The Real Reason Behind The Next Oil Squeeze

The intent of this article is to provide some guidance as to where oil prices may be headed in the near term. I think there are some key drivers at play here and will discuss them in some detail in the rest of this article.

[marvelman] 13/8/2018 18:28

Yes indeed MBF...I must confess I had not even read that far down as I had assumed they would just be paid off, Regards.

[mustbefunny] 13/8/2018 15:45

Most of the loan notes will convert to ordinary shares as per the placing docs

[marvelman] 13/8/2018 15:26

I wonder how many of the loan note holders may re-invest their money in TRIN shares

[spellbrook] 13/8/2018 08:56

2 Days to go

The Company will today begin the process of redeeming the Loan Notes in accordance with their terms and it is anticipated that this process will be formally completed with redemption occurring on 15 August 2018.

[husted] 12/8/2018 23:49

I think we'll get the same amount of details about future drilling as we did in H1. They only gave us the main points, roughly when it was happening etc, but I wasn't in desperate need to find out more.

[melody9999] 12/8/2018 22:40

MT "I doubt I'm far from alone in believing that TRIN's communication with investors and the wider market is currently below par and needs to improve"

I agree - I think our BOD should surely recognise that investor confidence in Trinity and in the BOD was knocked by the placing. The best way for them to repair this damage is to demonstrate how this additional funding is making a difference to future earnings - I am disappointed not to have heard by now about the drilling campaign.

Would be grateful if you could publish any response from the company to your enquiry on this BB.

[ffp] 12/8/2018 22:36

Deary me it is a Sunday, take a day off...

[mount teide] 12/8/2018 22:23

WITJ -

'MT, Im not sure what sort of reply you expect when you come out with obtuse notions like idea Trinity plan to drill only one well on December 31st!'
(you remind me of Cathy Newman during her 'interview' with Jordan Peterson! - I did't say that at all - I said it COULD mean that, and it could mean anywhere between 1 and 6 wells could be drilled - we simply don't know.
What we do know is that there is just 4.5 m months left in 2018 and TXP according to their CEO will not drill in T&T during Nov and Dec because from experience this is when the wet season flood risk is at its greatest, and exposes the company to significant delays/additional cost.)

Hardly likely when placing set out to drill more! Come on!
( The company has committed to 10 wells by end 2019 and of these to commence drilling the initial 6 wells during H2/2018. TXP is committed to 7 wells in H2/2017 and up to 20 in 2019)

Anyway, they only announced signing the drilling contract about 3 weeks ago.
(Why not negotiate and finalise the drilling contract prior to the placing, with the proviso the contract was subject to TRIN Board approval one day after the intended completion date of the placing?; thereby allowing TRIN to fast track the commencement of the proposed drilling programme)

As I said, in March TXP were budgeting for $1m per well this year so by your argument TXP didn't know what they are doing when they budgeted because it ended up costing less.
(Not at all - TXP's drilling cost varies pro-rata to the depth drilled - of the first 7 wells of the 14 well 2017/18 programme: the wells have ranged in depth from 3,820ft to nearly double that in cost at 7,340ft - the average cost for the programme is budgeted at US$830k per well - The 2018 drilling programme and cost was laid out in their November 2018 Presentation and RNS).

However Trinity have laid out how many wells the placing budgeted for. FWIW Im sure it's pessimistic. But it's an 18 month program. The end of 2018 is not the milestone. End of 2019 is. Because it's an 18 month program. As I said whether a spud date or two is Q1 next year or Q4 this year is not material. And they may choose to accelerate the program if oil price behaves.
(In the recovery stage of the oil market cycle, it is usually highly cost effective to strike while the iron is hot and take advantage of the strongly rising oil price at the earliest opportunity by accelerating the pace of production development.)

But these are development wells, individual spud dates are not material. They will only talk about them as part of regular updates. I assume they'll tell us more about timetable then. This is perfectly credible.
(Fine, I hope they hurry up and do because time like the tide and oil market cycle waits for no man.)

Anyway your reply is predictable. Nothing positive to say about Trinity, usual ramp on about TXP.
(Anyone reading the following part of my previous post objectively would probably find it difficult to suggest it was anything other than positive about TRIN over 2-3 year outlook:
'In common with many shareholders, I regard both TRIN and TXP as both VALUE and GROWTH plays - since both are survivors of a 6-7 year brutal oil sector recession and are now benefitting from 5 years of cost cutting combined with a more than doubling of the POO as the recovery phase of the new oil market cycle continues to strengthen.')

I doubt I'm far from alone in believing that TRIN's communication with investors and the wider market is currently below par and needs to improve. As a shareholder with considerable skin in TRIN I respectfully pointed this out to the company in my email.



AIMHO/DYOR

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/8/2018 20:27

Sorry Dunderheed, Im hitting showers, don't see point in continuing with this.

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/8/2018 19:29

MT, Im not sure what sort of reply you expect when you come out with obtuse notions like idea Trinity plan to drill only one well on December 31st!

Hardly likely when placing set out to drill more! Come on!

Anyway, they only announced signing the drilling contract about 3 weeks ago. As I said, in March TXP were budgeting for $1m per well this year so by your argument TXP didn't know what they are doing when they budgeted because it ended up costing less.

However Trinity have laid out how many wells the placing budgeted for. FWIW Im sure it's pessimistic. But it's an 18 month program. The end of 2018 is not the milestone. End of 2019 is. Because it's an 18 month program. As I said whether a spud date or two is Q1 next year or Q4 this year is not material. And they may choose to accelerate the program if oil price behaves.

But these are development wells, individual spud dates are not material. They will only talk about them as part of regular updates. I assume they'll tell us more about timetable then. This is perfectly credible.

Anyway your reply is predictable. Nothing positive to say about Trinity, usual ramp on about TXP.

[dunderheed] 12/8/2018 18:43

I've got it 4-3 to witj at the moment*?










*not based on points raised but a general feeling with regard to full arguments presented i.e. both close!

[mount teide] 12/8/2018 17:59

WITJ

'I think you miss whole point of recent announcements.'
(In debates the use of condescension is usually considered a reliable sign of the weakness of your opponents argument!)

The idea of funding is to grow FASTER, so no, spudding one well this year would not ensure compliance with strategy!
(Exactly, so I'm sure we can look forward to shortly being told how many wells of the 10 are planned for 2018)

And they should exceed minimum commitment because POO should exceed $60 and costs should be driven down. Remember TXP was budgeting $1m per well as recently as March. Please don't take this as signal that I want to discuss TXP...
(for sake of accuracy: TXP - circa $1m Canadian per 4,500 to 5,000ft well)


I didn't see this placing coming either. I bought over 20p more than once, but Im 100% clear that fund raise was done for right reasons and BOD deserves my trust. If you don't and can't see Trinity is now worth more with the placing done, more than offsetting the 26.5% dilution, because large sums of cash will now be used for growth, then I don't know why you are still here.
(The US shale oil industry has borrowed US$hundreds of billions from US Banks and continues to borrow heavily from the same source to continue drilling rather than hit their shareholders with highly dilutive placings - it has not stopped many of these quoted shale oil drillers from seeing market valuations appreciate between 20 and 50 fold, despite many still being loss making at $70 oil.)

Fundraiser means they can start drilling lots of wells and keep on drilling onshore non-stop year after year; without needing to raise cash again. Without the placing, they'd have have had minimal cash to drill this year. The placing got the snowball rolling.
(With historically low interest rates, why not in a strongly rising oil price environment in a new oil market cycle, do what most of the oil industry does and borrow the money to accelerate the production development drilling?
An example of what a more than doubling of the price of Brent and 42% lower drill cost can do for the economics of T&T on-shore production development drilling is demonstrated well by TXP's first four wells of the 2017/18 programme:
The four 2017 wells have collectively produced circa 170,000 barrels during the last 14 months, while Brent has averaged $64 - generating circa US$10.9 million of gross revenue to date. Currently the four wells are producing at an average rate of 91.25 bopd, generating the equivalent of circa US$9.73 million gross revenue per annum. The 4 wells were drilled at a completed cost of circa US$1.1m each - US$4.4m in total for a total drilled depth of 25,200ft/6,300ft average per well.)

I should have seen it coming, because I remember commenting here that many people mistakenly see Trinity as just a value play, when its not just that. More importantly, Trinity is a growth play. They don't need to explore or buy assets, they have 5 year plan to develop existing resources to 11,500 bopd.
(In common with many shareholders, I regard both TRIN and TXP as both VALUE and GROWTH plays - since both are survivors of a 6-7 year brutal oil sector recession and are now benefitting from 5 years of cost cutting combined with a more than doubling of the POO as the recovery phase of the new oil market cycle continues to strengthen.)

I doubt Trinity know exactly how many wells this year yet, they'll be planning the 18 month program now. But just like individual workovers, individual drills will not materially increase production, so its not important whether they drill 50% or 40% of the program this year/ next year. They start and keep going, keep driving up production, keep driving down costs. It's not when individual wells spud that matters , it's the continual effort that will have the significant net effect.

(I would have expected the Management to know exactly how many wells, and at what cost, they planned to drill this year and next as part of their calculations to determine the size of the placing.
While an individual well may not materially increase production, at $70-$80 oil each well certainly has the potential to pay back very quickly the drill cost.
If TRIN believed the placing was going to be fully supported, which I'm sure they would considering the price it was transacted at, they should have had arrangements in place to spud the first well within a few weeks of the placing. To suggest they are yet to sit down and determine the drill programme some two months AFTER the placing would for any well run company be inconceivable in my opinion.)

And we'll know more soon Im sure.
(Sooner rather the later for their own credibility.)

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/8/2018 14:47

I think you miss whole point of recent announcements.

The idea of funding is to grow FASTER, so no, spudding one well this year would not ensure compliance with strategy!

And they should exceed minimum commitment because POO should exceed $60 and costs should be driven down. Remember TXP was budgeting $1m per well as recently as March. Please don't take this as signal that I want to discuss TXP...

I didn't see this placing coming either. I bought over 20p more than once, but Im 100% clear that fund raise was done for right reasons and BOD deserves my trust. If you don't and can't see Trinity is now worth more with the placing done, more than offsetting the 26.5% dilution, because large sums of cash will now be used for growth, then I don't know why you are still here.

Fundraiser means they can start drilling lots of wells and keep on drilling onshore non-stop year after year; without needing to raise cash again. Without the placing, they'd have have had minimal cash to drill this year. The placing got the snowball rolling.

I should have seen it coming, because I remember commenting here that many people mistakenly see Trinity as just a value play, when its not just that. More importantly, Trinity is a growth play. They don't need to explore or buy assets, they have 5 year plan to develop existing resources to 11,500 bopd.

I doubt Trinity know exactly how many wells this year yet, they'll be planning the 18 month program now. But just like individual workovers, individual drills will not materially increase production, so its not important whether they drill 50% or 40% of the program this year/ next year. They start and keep going, keep driving up production, keep driving down costs. It's not when individual wells spud that matters , it's the continual effort that will have the significant net effect.

And we'll know more soon Im sure.

[mount teide] 12/8/2018 11:47

WITJ - spudding the first well on 31 December 2018 would ensure compliance with that announcement.

As someone who was badly caught out averaging up by the highly surprising 40% of market cap placing in June at a 40%+ discount to the May share price high, for the sake of transparency, and in order to avoid disappointment, it would be helpful if the management gave the market some guidance as to how many wells will actually be drilled in 2018?

[whiskeyinthejar] 12/8/2018 11:32

- June to December is the wet season, peaking between August and October. But 2017 wasn't typical weather for Trinidad. It was particularly wet. Tropical storms are normally very rare in Trinidad - geographically its 6 miles off the coast of South America and not in Carribean at all.

-Thanks in part to a developing El Niño, forecasters say a "below-normal" wet season is most likely in the Carribean this year.

- The fundraising wasn't purely to fund drilling. The fundraising process is expensive and not something to do repeatedly, so if they didn't drill for 6 months it would be disappointing but they are also working on aquisitions etc.

-However they ARE going to drill this year. The last RNS in July says contract has been signed and they will commence drilling six new onshore infill wells during H2 2018.