Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aqc888] 20/6/2024 21:27

Why is the market so pessimistic? Previous pessimism has been correct. However a stopped clock is right every now and then - and Trinity has been so wrong so often let’s hope this time it’s different! (Oh dear 🤞)

[nocents] 20/6/2024 19:37

If it is voted down, it will slump and the BOD wiill have no plan and not need to return anything to shareholders, whilst rewarding themselves. They have proved themselves incompetent and greedy. Too late to vote now anyway.
It would be rewarding to see them kicked out with no undeserved remuneration package,but I think Trin would be broken up and sold if the vote fails. But why would it fail?

[nafafa] 20/6/2024 17:47

Hopefully this will be voted down and management will then be directed to deliver in the best interests of shareholders or face being kicked without a compensation package.

[lexus880] 20/6/2024 14:50

added 11500 fingers crossed all goes well.

[princebuster2] 20/6/2024 10:55

Trin…the gift that keeps on giving. Or taking as the case may be!.

[masterfly7] 20/6/2024 09:38

Over 30% down from the implied 61.9p valuation of the offer

[nocents] 19/6/2024 18:35

Rather a dismal share performance here. Drifting increasingly down . As is TXP. No news on shallow bopd at Jacobin ( as repeatedly promised by these charlatans), and no news on Cascadura. We are told that Txp has significant FCF( as we were told by Trin) and their Capex for ‘24 is significant. And capital allocation was mentioned as a carrot I guess. Txp has managed to grow far more than Trin, but I am sensibly wary of spin merchants now.Wonder how others feel.
The merger is necessary. Trin will not necessarily pay shareholders out of any profits it made. And it only has BA to rest hopes on.
Silence here. But I don’t see the point of Trin existing any more really. Same crew would be running it.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 20:22

Yes certainly. Shareholders are collateral damage,an irritation.Managements tend to be greedy and often void of personal responsibility. There are some companies not like that.Trin was not like that before Bruce died. He once spent an hour on the phone to me and I even got a card in hospital. It died with him. We are dispensible and the same goes for TXP. Big fat salarieas all-round plus a big parting gift. . It does turn my stomach a little. I expect no different from TXP. We really don’t matter at all.

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 20:10

Unfortunately I think management of all listed companies are looking for high risk/high reward ventures. Success means large bonuses, failure on the other hand has minimal consequences. Look at trinity management, had jacobin succeeded they would have had significant financial rewards. Whilst now it’s failed they’ve still picked up their inflated salaries and are being given parting gifts when merged with txp.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 20:00

I’d agree. Perhaps PB could do what they never did at Trin-market it.
I have voted for the merger as I feel ling term it is probably a better business. Trin just didn’t seem to know what they were doing.
Paul Baay? I will remain neutral as I feel shareholders are collateral damage and I don’t believe all the capital allocation spin. Trin said the same. Shareholders need a 10%+ group in my opinion.
Still….end of Sep is a long time off.
Where is update promised on Jacobin which will eventually pay for itself. Uppdates on Cascadura and Coho?
Darkness ( radio slen e) falls across the land.

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 19:49

I get the impression that Galeota isn’t very saleable. With Galeota being Trinity’s most important asset it makes sense exploiting this with TXP.

Anyone interested in Galeota would have approached Trinity by now? Nafafa, your approach is a very safe and conservative one. Many investors in Trinity however probably have a higher risk appetite..

It all comes down to viewpoints of the competence of TXP to exploit value and succeed.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 18:40

I take that lSt point seriously.I believe Txp have a fairly high risk approach to drilling it seems.And I feel in my bones that shareholders are dispensible. So it’s a tough one. Yes Trin could return cash to shareholders but would they? They don’t seem to hold us in high regard. I do wonder if risk-return would be better as PB is fairly gung-ho and a spin-merchant. So it’s a tough call. The larger shareholders seem to rate it a better prospect though, and do you really trust Trin ?
I do agree that Bruce would not have sold his baby for a ridiculously low price . I just think they don’t know what they are doing and JB was never up to the job tbh.

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 18:18

AQC, I doubt it very much as I don't believe it suits their agenda

[aqc888] 14/6/2024 17:55

Nafafa, you make a sensible point in my view. It would require a successful sale of Galeota and other assets, I presume the M&A advisors have already explored this option?

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 17:22

Nocents, you miss the point. In my opinion Trin should not be putting money into developing new assets. Instead their focus should solely be on their low cost base production for the next 5 to 10 years, which would permit them to return considerable amounts of cash to shareholders. I do not doubt that in terms of a risk return profile this provides a better solution for shareholders than being acquired by TXP. I have no doubt that were Bruce still about he would not have had anything to do with such a proposal.

[nocents] 14/6/2024 15:30

I think it will go through.
And I also think it should go through.
Trin do not have the cash to develop its own assets. They should have sold Galeota when we suggested it last year. I kept on at them, as did Ab. Nope. Own agenda. I don’t believe they would have agreed to this if not for the large shareholders.
Yes Trin generates cash, but it had no plans until BA and frankly botched up just about everything possible from unfortunate hedging to a stream of dry wells for goodness sake.
I don’t think the BOD were ever fit to run the company when Bruce died. He once told me face to face that he would never let Trin be sold on the cheap.
All I am trying to do is make clear that these CEO’s often get drunk on power and take risks they shouldn’t. I encourage a shareholder group over 10% to keep Some sort of pressure on. I have been on the TXp thread but left after too many vacuous comments( decent enough people but I want to discuss the company!!). Che7win is very optimistic( and I hope he is right) but I also know that CEO’s don’t generally give a toss about shareholders unless they have to. Sad but I would say generally true. The TXP mob are not hugely impressed and they must have their reasons.
But I think the merger should go through. We will certainly see Trin slump if it does not!

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 14:26

Let's hope they don't get the 75% shareholder acceptance required

[nocents] 14/6/2024 13:08

Court approves it initially. That’s shy it’s important to vote. They don’t count default votes in court and need to know enough shareholders approve. No idea about”lock up period”. What purpose?
Re. Cretaceous, I agree. I think Baay is getting too gung-ho. $30m for 3 wells!!?!
Stick to minimal risk. I am very wary of Mr. Baay and I have followed TXP since exit from Alberta. He is a good spin-doctor. I think shareholders ( if it goes through) should form a pressure group which makes sure they are looked after. Otherwise I think not. To be at 31p is a disgrace to be honest.

[masterfly7] 14/6/2024 12:57

If the deal does go through at the vote, is there a lock up period whilst waiting for approval?? Alluded to on the TXP board.

[nafafa] 14/6/2024 11:08

Flyinghorse, a very sound observation. Past experience has been to over promise and underdeliver! Based on their current share price performance, investors clearly do not have a great deal of confidence in TXP.The deal to acquire Trin is valued at shy of £18 million (.31*1.5 *38,000,000), and a substantial element of that is cash in the bank. I will reiterate, in my view, if Trin directors were to be instructed to solely focus on bass production, even allowing for a decline to 2,000 barrels per day, then £8 million a year could comfortably be returned to shareholders. That is an equivalent dividend of 20p per share, and of course there is the cash that could be distributed immediately. There would also be a huge savings in overhead to be achieved by kicking out those not directly employed in activities focused on delivery and sustaining base production and possible sale of non developed assets.Why would any shareholder in their right minds vote for this deal? It seems that many holders have all too easily been seduced by a baseless hope that TXP will deliver for them. In my view, a high risk and illogical gamble.

[flyinghorse1] 13/6/2024 20:56

The Cretaceous is over hyped in Trinidad IMHO. Its what the government want to hear, but its expensive to drill down there and as far as I know minimal(in scheme of things production).
I also doubt the 3D seismic (as its land based sources, will have the depth and frequency required to map it correctly to place a drill.
All IMHO.

[aqc888] 13/6/2024 18:22

How many of txp & trinity’s previous x10wells have met expectations? The answer to this question will probably be the most accurate forecast of their future together…

[nocents] 13/6/2024 13:50

Baay is right to look at drilling multiple wells in order to reduce risk of one dry well. However, these are $10m each. I , for one, don’t want another Jacobin. These are deep wells. For all the fcf to go on exploratory drilling carries financial risk. We know this from Trin. I would like some capital allocation as Trin stripped us of the “ set in stone” dividend. Txp should not become a frequently traded share…that is the death of share progress.
Take what is printed with much salt too. He may, if gas does not live up to expectations, look for another fund raise. Caveat TXP emptor I think.
As much spin as our present politicians, ‘lest we forget’ ( oops Rishi missed that line, was long gone!).

[che7win] 13/6/2024 12:56

htTps://trinidadexpress.com/business/local/touchstone-to-explore-deep-horizon-drilling/article_8a44a4ae-2865-11ef-84d6-8fa94c75c740.html

[nocents] 12/6/2024 17:53

Lol
It’s certainly cool here for June.
No you weren’t condescending at all! You just got us wrong!We have been through the mill with Trin-and me with other scam companies( Trin is no scam company)and I/we am/are very sceptical of promises. I doubt Mr. Baay has pur wellbeing in mind so I hope your figures turn out true in reality.