Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 12/6/2024 15:50

Thank you nocents. I didn't mean any offense, and when I thought about it, I was condescending, so I apologise if I've caused offence.I get the skepticism too, I've lost my shirt as many times as you nocents, so you're right to question things.I'll go and cool off somewhere.

[nocents] 12/6/2024 14:45

Yes it was condescending, but “easy Tiger”. I don’t think he meant to be grossly rude. I was only mildly irritated by it, but simply because it is wrong. My emotions have wholly evaporated here, and I believe I see things more clearly than ever. Through a glass darkly ( the Bible I think. Che7win is only giving his point of view. I am not as trusting as him, having let myself be defrauded so many times and losing almost every penny through spin.
I will vote for this merger this week( one of my sons got married in Corfu last week so been away and come back to dreadful weather!) Trin should not , imo, go it alone. They are not competent. However, I would take pB’s comments as I take Sunak’s et al ( kilo of salt). These AIM CEO’s do not bear us in mind ( like politicians). What matters is their salaries. I however thank you Che7win for your info. I am just a seasoned cynic. Nothing would suit me better than a rise in TXP, but things rarely go my way.

[che7win] 12/6/2024 11:50

Last two posters, you are letting your emotion control your thought process.I said production for TXP would double again this year. You fail to realise that statement means it's happened in the past! TXP don't need to prove a thing, they are delivering. Don't let market prices make you think they are similar to TRIN. Back to the double again statement.Last year up to 31st Mar 23 they produced 2139 average daily volume. This year, up to 31st Mar 24, they produced 7015 daily production.That's a 227 percent increase in volume, it's actually a tripling of production.This year they have said they will end the year at 14500boep/d, from 7015 I make that a doubling from today's production. The wells are drilling and will be hooked up Q4 so not hard to achieve....

[nocents] 12/6/2024 10:56

Proof of FCF and proof of free gas flow (TXP) are not the same as promises. Of course Baay will promise a doubling in 2024 and again in 2025. He does what Sunak doesn’t-he plays politics correctly. He is not to be trusted, just as the Trin BOD were/are not to be trusted.
I think the share price would drop for Trin if it fell through-purely through AIM doing what it always does…disappoint.
I think any good Trin news will be hidden from us intentionally. Going it alone would certainly be a decent option, but we would not benefit from considerable Gand A savings, salaries/NED’s etc., £500k AIM admission, employee reduction, etc. We were scammed of our dividend” set in stone” which irritates me immensely, fooled ove Jacobin, not told promised Upper bopd by end of May so assume none, told it would eventually pay for itself etc etc. we were constantly having the wool pulled over our eyes and I can never trust the BOD again no matter what. Incompetent to say the least. But I, too, am immensely sceptical of Paul Baay. I would not trust him an inch. I certainly would not trust prospective Cascadura gas output just on initial pressure. It’s what Trin yarned to us about Jacobin.
I think we may have to suck up the loss of Trin’s autonomy, but go into TXP with a note of high caution. PB does not give a hoot about multiple temporary( or long term) investors. He is paid well and we are oh so very dispensible. Never forget this.
But if we reject the offer we would have to accept a share drop and an unwillingness to invest. Trin let themselves be bought for peanuts, which shows their absence of political and business acumen. Incompetence I am afraid, and grossly demeaning about us posters.
I won’t be sorry to see them go. They should frankly be ashamed of their mess-ups.

[pavey ark] 12/6/2024 09:27

Touching that you think the "worth" of a company is reflected in the value set by AIM investors.....especially "small oil" investors.

I can assure you I would be more than delighted if your dream scenario turns out to be correct but if you look past a few selected posts you will see that most TXP posters share my scepticism regarding management and their ability to deliver.....frying pan/fire for TRIN investors !!!???

Until TXP and their management come good (and it has been a long and expensive wait for their shareholders)then this is a risk for TRIN shareholders......running TRIN for cash is not a risky option....regardless of the share price.

If as you say some TXP shareholders are against this deal then it rather proves my point about AIM small oil investors.

[che7win] 12/6/2024 08:17

Next two Cascadura wells take TXP to 14500 boepd. The pressure from them was really high, they will start it very strong.Read the Oak Bloke article from yesterday, the truth is, if this deal doesn't go through for TRIN, it's share price will crash and I can guarantee TXPs would rise.

[pavey ark] 12/6/2024 07:53

That was the point I was going to make.
As it stands TRIN shareholders don't have to take ANY risks.....let things run as they are and return cash....sell Galeota (including Trintes) and return even more cash......sell the whole company and (you've guessed it) return even more cash

[aqc888] 12/6/2024 07:35

Che7win, the problem seems to be that drilling in Trinidad has not progressed as expected at Trin or txp lately. Trinity shareholders are worried a few more failed wells will result in a worse situation than they are currently in. After the Jacobin fiasco, Trinity holders are perhaps a little skeptical about Cascadura.

[che7win] 11/6/2024 22:15

Nafafa,
Be careful what you wish for, there are a quite considerable number of TXP shareholders that wish the deal wouldn’t go through, because it allows TRIN shareholders to ride on the back of TXP production doubling by year end again as Cascadura wells double production from there in Q3.

I think you have it the wrong way around, TRIN is short if cash, got potential assets that need cash, TXP will be throwing off 50m cash minimum next year and more so combined with the synergies, this is more needed by TRIN than by TXP.

As a TXP and TRIN shareholder, I have voted 100% for this deal with my TRIN shares.
100p will look very cheap for TXP by year end.

That Oak Bloke article says :

“The result of $37.4m synergy scenario is earnings of 12.8 cents EPS or 10 pence a share, putting TXP on a measly P/E 3.2 and P/FCF of 2.2. In other words for every £1 invested TXP is forecast to generate 45.5p of operating cash flow which it can put towards capex, dividends or debt repayments.”

[nafafa] 11/6/2024 15:36

Pavey, indeed it has been quiet on here, that's probably because regulars, including myself, have been checking out what posters on the TXP board have to say. That does not make for great reading and leaves me deeply concerned. It is clear that TXP are desperate to get hold of Trin cash - they carry considerable debt and it is far from certain that their new wells will deliver as they company anticipates. My view is that this deal presents a high risk gamble for existing Trin holders. I have no doubt that Trin shareholders would be best served by the business remaining independent and being run in the manner that I and others have previously suggested. I am voting against the deal.Regrettably, I will not be able to attend the AGM - I am away in Italy. This is unfortunate as I would have liked the opportunity to express my feelings about this whole business to the board. I doubt they would be prepared to take any notice, at least it would have provided me with a degree of self satisfaction.

[pavey ark] 11/6/2024 10:53

Gone rather quiet here so.......

Oil has perked up again and we are heading for H1 realised price of $70+ and no SPT.

H1 2023 it was $65 AND SPT was $3.3m !!!........the cash pile will be considerable !!

There is a very real case for going it alone and adopting the "Nafafa strategy" of simply running this down for cash returns.

No news from Jacobin but this does not surprise me ....bad new and they will not say....good news (even 100 bpd) and they will not want to be positive before the big sell off.....speaking of which... shouldn't we have had new on Touchstone's new development wells or are they waiting for their big payday...the TRIN cash pile ???

[flyinghorse1] 01/6/2024 21:29

Andrew -with due respect that tells us very little, I think the concepts had already been looked at by Trinity in the past from memory.

[andrewbyles] 01/6/2024 21:16

For the results of the Petrofac study, see the November 2023 presentation.

Here are the notes:

Here’s the page where video of the presentation can be found:

[flyinghorse1] 01/6/2024 08:50

What ever happened to Trinity presenting the results of the Petrofac study? I’m sure they said it would be presented last September, which is before the TXP acquisition started.
It does seem that a number of large shareholders must have been taken “ inside” and knew about the deal. A few board posters went quiet about the time talks took place.

[nocents] 31/5/2024 14:33

Your point is very valid. The deal would look better if they were dud results. But Txp’s books would not be as balanced. Essentially we get 1.5 times whatever Txp is worth.
They did actually say they would update the market in late May re. Jacobin production ( “which would eventually pay for itself” and would be on the lower side ). Obviously decided not to, which I find poor but I don’t want to be a repetitive Grinch. This is not being sold for peanuts by accident, and Txp are not worth around $90m by accident. I know oil is a risk, but I still can’t get over James Menzies presentation and then Jacobin ( around $11m ) gets fully written off. Like ElDorado 2014 and 3 dry shallow wells 2023. And no horizontal well in spite of specially made drill bit.
They rarely keep to promised deadlines anyway.
I am disappointed they have not updated re. Shallow Jacobin bopd. It was a spoken promise.
I dearly hope Paul Baay has more geological know-how and market knowledge . I don’t count on it, as so many AIM companies are jam tomorrow, which never materializes. I am hoping Cascadura gas and Coho oil don’t end up like Trinity’s last 4 drills. The Txp investors don’t seem to hold him in great regard, which is not a good sign. We were once a bunch of optimists about Trin until realism set in.

[pavey ark] 31/5/2024 13:37

They said Jacobin would begin production in the second half of May.....don't think there was any promise of an announcement(?)

They only make announcements on "material" production so I think we can say that the production is below 150 bpd.... possibly considerably lower.

My point is still that their deal looks better if they don't acknowledge any production uptick/ stabilisation or the growing cash pile.

[nocents] 31/5/2024 12:15

It is disapppointing that yet another promise has been abandoned. We were supposed to hear about Upper level of Jacobin production in late May. I can only assume it is zero.
Can they truly get anything right?
But I don’t suppose they need to with their handsome payoff. I really did not expect such incompetence at the helm when BD passed away.

[sleepy] 31/5/2024 11:17

Pavey - you may well be right. However Trinity may not produce any results prior to the Meetings on 24 June

[pavey ark] 31/5/2024 11:10

2023 offshore SPT was $5.7m ....looks like zero in H1.

The realised price in 2023 was $68.60 and the H1 price looks like being c. $71-$72.

I think the management of TRIN may find themselves with an embarrassing set of results as they try to sell us the TXP deal.

Look how good things get when these clowns do nothing !!!

[davidblack] 30/5/2024 09:14

Another question?
Assuming the vote goes through when is Trinity suspended?

[davidblack] 29/5/2024 17:38

Has Trinity got any Cretaceous targets at depth?