Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[orbit007] 03/5/2024 15:23

I would like to know then value of the tax losses. The Cavendish FV of Trinity increased dramatically if they can be utilised. If they are $200m, what is the tax rate they can shield from? Reason I ask is, if Trinity is now clearly 'in play' surely other producing companies in the region will have a look - i.e Perenco, if the value of those losses exceeds £11m which is the bid value at present less year end cash, then I would expect a rival bid for those alone, discounting the value of Galeota or existing production.

[davidblack] 03/5/2024 15:09

Just watched the Investor's presentation in December the director who answered the questions sounded exhausted.

Feels like that body language explains why they were happy to depart.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 15:01

Of course it would have been fairer for Trin holders, but it is not going to happen.

[sleepy] 03/5/2024 14:37

Broadly Trinity shareholders end up with c 20% of the enlarged company.

Is this fair or would 25% (roughly equivalent to 2 TXP shares for each TRIN share) be fairer?

[che7win] 03/5/2024 13:48

Nocents, I have also been defrauded over the years I similar way. Best we look forwards, looking back is depressing.I bought TRIN many years ago, then switched out to TXP.Now back in here heavily this week.Dont look into share price too much, there is arbitrage opportunity. I've struggled to buy 0.5% here.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 13:34

Sure. Yes I called 61.9p the ‘ contractual’ value as it was on the one agreed day. Yes it’s meaningless.
There is no fixed price, and as and if this deal goes through end Q3 I will see it as one company moving forwards. I have been invested in T and T since 2013, have an ide of their govt. methodologies, and the biggest stumbling block was always SPT, now raised to $75 on and offshore. It’s the biggest reason investment never happened in T and T. Still an issue but not a prevention. Trin’s oil is assessed as an average received price of $15 below Brent ( approx) as the heavy and light oils are blended by Heritage. First time in 10 years that Trin is making profit.
I now have to learn more about gas.
I am very cautious about being optimistic-only because of me. I accumulated well over half a million in my lifetime only to lose 95% ( yes 95%) of it by being naively defrauded by Pog, Ncyt, 4D ( the kings of deceit!). And I first bought Trin on advice in 2013 at £1.50 ( the equivalent of £15 a share now!!!) LShould have left it in the Virgin tracker but oh no…I took advice!! More fool me.
So, with my family having been reduced from fairly wealthy to all but skint, I have no fingers left to cauterise, so am very wary of any optimism. This might explain my caution with your comments-nothing personal. I do not believe directors or trust the market. With good reason. But at least I know TXP and I agree it should be 2+2=5. I aim to hold long term if poss…I’d like to see £1.50 again.
I can never retrieve what I have lost, but to make a tad back would help with everyday spends:-)

[che7win] 03/5/2024 12:56

Nocents,
As you know, you're not getting 61.9p now, that was a snapshot price.
Right now it's worth TRIN 57.5p share price and when Cascadura next two Wells go on steam, market price should be 80p for TXP, which equates to 120p per TRIN share if you look at it that way.

So it really is meaningless to look at the 61.9p.

I will be disappointed if we aren't at TXP 150p in 18 months.

I'm happy with this deal, and it takes a lot for me to be happy on takeovers.

Not right to think of them and us and start thinking of 2+2=5 for combined companies.

We're going to have massive synergies, cost cutting, job cuts, removal of duplication, that alone makes this deal earnings accretive from the get go

[boystown] 03/5/2024 11:48

My rough guesstimate, fwiw, is that TXP should be worth around 50p once the deal has gone through (this based mainly on Simon Thompson's update), so that would effectively work out to 75p "today".

Of course, this may be wishful thinking, but I'm not selling any for less if and when tne deal goes through

[nocents] 03/5/2024 11:44

61.9p agreed conversion value from 1.5 TXP shares at around 41p contractual date.
Spot price of course 52.4p

[skyship] 03/5/2024 11:37

62.9p !? The rest of us getting a lot less than that. Perhaps a typo for 52.9p

[nocents] 03/5/2024 11:26

Thanks!
But you can’t quantify the revenue increase (if the disparity between gas at $26 and oil at $73 is so high) until you separate them. Number sounds nice but is meaningless until strictly separated between oil and gas. I know gas prices are more fixed, but oil is set to sit high for a long while.
Other implications are 20% dilution of TXP transfer to Trin. Not really analysed enough imo. I think I will need to look at the slides in detail.
It looks like it will probably be agreed, but I am stinging to get only 61.9p agreed value for the share. My b/e is £1:29p , so future performance of TXP has to be scrutinised and marketing/sales techniques separated from reality.I guess there is hope but Trin has left scars of mistrust. Many of us have lost utter life-changing fortunes, and some dopes like me were in 4D and Ncyt and lost the rest. So caution is prudent. But if TXP increase their boepd, the share price should respond. I don’t like the debt though, serviceable or not. Debt has covenants. Sobthesecwill need to not be brushed under the carpet by TXP. I am open to sensible education on this.

[che7win] 03/5/2024 10:58

Nocents, It's combined - boepd.But remember runs rate should be closer to 17000 boepd at year end.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 10:48

Succinct. Shame no Q and A.
Now is the 11-15k ‘ boe’ expected , oil or oil plus gas? Big difference $26 vs. $73 ARPrice.
I am used to bopd.

[nocents] 03/5/2024 10:19

Thank you Homebrew! I have logged in.

[homebrewruss] 03/5/2024 09:25

TXP are giving a presentation about the deal at 10:30 today in case anyone is unaware

[nocents] 03/5/2024 08:49

A soupçon of arrogance?
You are inviting a board “barely fit for purpose” to your board. Your logic defeats itself.

[ballymoss18] 03/5/2024 07:38

The board is barely fit for purpose except for a few posters. We had to endure months of Pro ramping and people with a grudge against him.Touchstone have a discord group where you can have better discussions.

[nafafa] 03/5/2024 00:24

Nocents, I guess you are now set to become TXP's most prolific poster, those on that Board are in for a treat!

[nocents] 02/5/2024 23:03

I know. I figured that out. I changed it when I worked it out. I’m sorry for being a bit cutting anyway.

[strathroyal] 02/5/2024 22:57

Sorry nocents, that wasn't directed at your post. I'll edit my earlier post

[nocents] 02/5/2024 22:55

We are indeed not at all insulated from human impact. Grass roots look for another job and for some it may be tricky, ok, good or a relief. We can acknowledge that.
I have lost 80% of my worth by being in Trin 10 years-and mea culpa-I wish I’d never heard of them. As SR says, we suffer. I have put myself and family through Hell by taking out of the index fund. No insulation here.
Time out from bb for a while I feel.

[strathroyal] 02/5/2024 22:31

Re 3723 Well that's a weird post!! Insulated from the human impact of this? I don't think so, quite a few of us have lost '000s. Jacobin unlucky? again I don't think so, poor seismic surely, wasn't what was expected, don't see what was unlucky about that, more a reflection of the poor quality of the data.

[nocents] 02/5/2024 22:27

It may be a problem for some, it may be a fresh happy start for others. We can’t know . Each case is individual. But it is important to remember those at grass roots.
I think the fault does lie squarely with management though. Not luck or AIM. They are constants. It was a high-risk, erroneous, badly marketed failure. Appraisal well. And the previous dry wells, no horizontal, a year of mega-hedging, etc etc. Appalling neglect of shareholders led to sell-offs. It is their responsibility to know the nature of the index. So easy to whinge on a bb. I have done my fair share. But sometimes losing 80% of your investment through blunders not of your own doing does deserve careful analysis of who/where/how/why. I have seen such blunders in an increasingly improving oil and fiscal environment that I think I have said enough.
What is done is done.
Move on.
Let’s hope this affair actually succeeds and brings something positive, because ( after 10 years in Trin) I wish I had never had them mentioned , and never gotvinvolved in AIM. I should’ve left it in the index fund. Now that was fully mea culpa.
Let’s hope this venture succeeds because there is not even a guarantee of that.
But it has my vote, along with all the large shareholders but one.