Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 02/5/2024 20:40

Thanks, such is life. Although it’s still on the website.

[andrewbyles] 02/5/2024 20:35

Tabaquite produced very little oil, but Trinity previously announced an interest in producing “stranded̶1; gas from the licence. From memory, the quantities of gas were rather modest: they planned to use it for things like powering their service vehicles. After Bruce Dingwall died it soon became one of the abandoned plans. Last year the licence was returned as economic terms couldn’t be agreed (although perhaps that meant Trinity couldn’t afford to finance the government mandated exploration).

[davidblack] 02/5/2024 18:44

So given that TXP should have a flow of spare cash come September if this deal closes where would existing Trinity shareholders think that cash should go? Let’s say $3m a month?

I am a TXP holder and what previous caught my eye for TXP to acquire was Tabaquite which is contiguous with a new licence TXP applied for called Charuma.

Apparently the board liked Trinity a lot more than just that bit of ground.

[che7win] 02/5/2024 16:39

I'll also be voting for the deal with the 0.45% I've accumulated over past 2 days.

[andrewbyles] 02/5/2024 14:57

There’s not much more that can be said about Trinity.

Unfortunately, things haven’t worked out as hoped, but I think becoming part of Touchstone gives us an excellent opportunity to make our investment back and Trinity has done the right thing in recognising that. It’s a shame people are going to lose their jobs, but an expanding oil and gas sector in Trinidad (which is more likely with a stronger independent oil and gas company) will create new employment.

Having thought about it, I’m looking forward to becoming a Touchstone shareholder, with a 150p to 200p target (which would be equivalent to a Trinity share price of 225p to 300p). Unless a counteroffer (which doesn’t seem likely at the moment) is made in the near future, I’ll be voting for the acquisition with my 2.6%.

Good luck everyone with your next investment.

[che7win] 02/5/2024 14:31

I agree nocents, TXP should have $50m revenues from Cascadura next year, it should be sitting at 100p on that if / when we get there. Add in TRIN assets, another 20p?Compelling buy right now.

[nocents] 02/5/2024 14:20

Not sure I see TXP on a continuing downhill slide. They have potentially just acquired Trin for a song. Cash generated, no debt, huge tax exemption, no div (grrrr!!!) , no SPT, BA, sustained oil price, huge assets etc. For 60p!
Assuming it is not rejected, it has increased their cash and production plus potential massively. Short term fall back as people sell txp but results plus gas coming online etc are near term and not long term like BA.

[nocents] 02/5/2024 13:30

Correct. Txp is a stabilizer. Assuming the deal goes through. Not all large holders have approved it or the Special Resolution. I have not yet watched the TXP presentation but some of Trin’s assertions are quite morally quite infuriating to a loyal shareholder who was here before they were, I have seen the price come down from £1.25 a year ago to 33p last week due to their incompetence, and Mr. Clayton sings how fortunate we are , after having destroyed shareholder value since his arrival and negating the “set in stone dividend” due this month which has left me with a quandary. He even takes a potshot at bulletin boards. All the time the share price plummeted, their salaries did not.
So I will swallow my anger at his unwillingness to take responsibility, and just go with the flow. Whingeing ( justified or not) changes nothing.
It’ll be interesting to see if 75% is achieved….two resolutions…it’s not a given. Newlands own over 10% and have not committed.
Lots of variables here.
Perenco or anyone else unlikely to step in unless deal fails .

[skyship] 02/5/2024 13:24

Having listened to the Presentation it seems to me unlikely that Perenco will not have known that TRIN was available. Combined with the TXP prolonged downhill toboggan ride, which may not yet have finished; I've decided to sell down 65% of a considerably overweight holding. 140k sold; a mere 75k held for the time-being.

A nasty loss; but considerably less than the start of the week!


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[dunderheed] 02/5/2024 12:40

TzRin price will be linked directly with TXPs now unless something "unknown" occurring.

[princebuster2] 02/5/2024 12:36

Here comes the usual trin drop

[dunderheed] 02/5/2024 12:17

It allows the other companies to do that as well che7?

[che7win] 02/5/2024 12:13

One last thing, unlike oli, our gas production is on fixed contracts, one for Coho and one for Cascadura.The price may get negotiated at some stage, two other T&T companies have substantially higher gas contracted prices.But what it allows is for TXP to produce as much gas as they can and they have a ready buyer.So revenues are easily modeled and less risky / volatile compared to oil production.

[dunderheed] 02/5/2024 12:09

Strath do you know how big Perenco are?! If they wanted to buy TRIN "cash", they could easily get the debt for this, IMHO.
CHE7, they were incredibly confident about Chinook, coho and Royston as well?
In light of no production profiles information regarding Casca, I will wait interestedly to see if they are confident enough to issue plateau guidance for the two (Casca) wells in this years upcoming results?
To be clear though, this is a good deal for both parties but simplistically I'd have waited to get more cash and offer a cash and shares deal for TRIN which let's face it would probably have had a lower share price in few months time anyway?
As ever all IMHO.

[che7win] 02/5/2024 12:09

Nocents, Placings are not a concern now with substantial $32m cashflow which will rise.You will notice this year they extended borrowing on the back of their cashflow to speed up drilling and produbtion over 2024.That was a green light for the road map on drill to fill focus this year.

[nocents] 02/5/2024 11:47

Thank you.
You were shot down on the other thread regarding boepd and receiving less for gas than Trin for oil.
My opinion is that the profit-making onshore bopd oil that Trin is producing , should raise the oil profit a touch.
Assuming it all goes through.
Not all large holders have committed.
I don’t see a counterbid-just opinion. Txp and Trin are fairly synergistic, and although I don’t trust any CEO or BOD( Trinity destroyed my faith completely-they even annihilated the” set in stone” May dividend which I sorely needed) , and the sooner gone the better), I would have a little more faith in Baay, glitz and glamour agent that he may be! No more Placings please Mr. Baay.

[che7win] 02/5/2024 11:30

Co-1 also currently being drilled and results update expected soon and company results due to be published on a couple of weeks.I'm buying more here today.

[che7win] 02/5/2024 10:59

Near term catalysts, Cascadura 2 and 3 will be hooked up directly into the natural gas facility in Q3.They are so confident on these wells, that they didn't test them, this is saving 2m dollars.Production is going to ramp up significantly in Q3

[nocents] 02/5/2024 10:42

Appreciate both comments.SR I am the last person to stick up for this BOD, having lost my shirt to them.
I agree that a cash bid would have lower prospects than a Trin/TXP venture. Txp can use the tax exemption, the FCF( which should have been partially a “ set in stone” dividend-quote) the extensive assets and Jacobin production with BA in 9 months. Together they can grow and TXP got a bargain. I feel that the Chairman of Trin does not care a jot for us, nor the BOD. So happy to be rid. But the deal is not through yet. Interesting that TXP is so low.
Che7….what are the near term catalysts for TXP-2024..say 9 months?

[che7win] 02/5/2024 10:29

As a new shareholder, I would not want cash.TXP is throwing off 32m dollars cash and substantial upside.TXP share price should hit 100p at least in next 12 months.

[strathroyal] 02/5/2024 10:08

My understanding is that Perenco are a private company so any bid would be in cash, is that right? Unlikely to be much more than 70p I would have thought so, whilst agreeing with Nocents that the bid is low, I'd rather have shares in TXP than crystallise a substantial loss.

[nafafa] 02/5/2024 08:45

Regrettably AB your continued expressions of faith in the Board turned out to be utterly misplaced. Like you I doubt there will be interest from elsewhere and I will probably, reluctantly, vote in favour. These clowns will otherwise likely run what is left of the business into the ground and we shall end up with nothing. Just illustrates the extent to which Trin's fortunes relied on one individual who sadly is no longer with us.

[orbit007] 02/5/2024 00:19

He had a dig at the bulletin boards, i.e the shareholders! Comments about their pay given where the share price has gone are justified and I found it unprofessional that he made that jibe tbh! I think the sooner it concludes the better, I am not sure there is anything else on the tables now either.