Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 02/4/2024 11:18

Russia is exporting to China, India et al. Oil price kept high by the partially failing embargo. Israel directly attacking Lebanon’s Iranian consulate ups the ante, but Israel are never concerned with this.It is however a big hornet’s nest right now with Europe and US wrongly depriving Ukraine of what they need and the US elections usual fiasco playing into Putin’s hands. I have not known a witches’ cauldron quite like it since perhaps Vietnam /Cuba.The chances of escalation in the Middle East are fairly high but tempered by diplomatic efforts. And unless the West pulls together to fully support Ukraine,we are looking at dangerous global prospects. The Republicans are playing with fire. Enough said.
We are at $76 actual received price. Q2 average may be spt-land.
But will we actually get this 15% of OC flow anyway?? It was not a promise. I question Trin now. Their silence is deafening.
We won’t hear for another 4 weeks. And Jacobin?? It is as if it never existed.
We have a LONG way to climb back to above £1. Perhaps not this year. Perhaps not at all. And each rise will see a profit take AIM is very unforgiving.
I do hope Q1 update is not sterile.

[pavey ark] 02/4/2024 09:03

Right now the realised price to TRIN is $75 so things are looking interesting.

1/6/23: The Company aims to distribute 15% of operating cash flow to shareholders, for each calendar year when the realised oil price is greater than $50/bbl, and at least 20% of operating cash flow for periods when the realised price is above $80/bbl.

Q1 had a solid realised $71 and obviously produced a good return to TRIN with no SPT

$80 would require an oil price of c. $94.....currently over $88

My non expert view is that the price it probably at its maximum but could spike on a serious escalation in the Middle East.......if this is a serious escalation we may not be that concerned with TRIN or the oil price.

[nocents] 28/3/2024 21:43

What Ab does is really his business and we should make our own minds up on evidence of our own. He is a great bringer of information , and hope at times, but when he and we are let down, we only have ourselves to fall back on.
Clearly the big holders must have been placated or the BOD would be out. They may well be out eventually if they screw up again. Most of them are fly-by-nights, but Jeremy has been there 7 years and climbed to CEO. It is not hard to see falure. I have known him one to one since refinancing in 2017, far longer than Ab. He is a decent guy. Decent guys get things wrong too.
Loss is relative. Ab has lost a huge amount, but relatively speaking, I have lost far far more. I once held over 4%, and can now not pay bills. It has become that dire. But I bought originally in 2013 at £1.47 ( £14.70 now). You can see the loss. I put out regular TR 1’s. I was fairly wealthy. So loss is relative.
Ab is not averse to action if called for. He is not stupid.
We all see value here. Huge asset value. But incompetence at the top. Not unheard of. If the Q1 and Full Year results do not include a shareholder return and short-medium term plan for shareholders, then the BOD should be replaced.And are likely to be.
Oil goes up but we are now at $75 AR price. SPT land. So it has to come down again to benefit Trin in Q2. Trin’s share price usually has more to do with volume than fundamentals though. Bruce disliked AIM for its myopia. Short-term profit and disinterest in the nature of the product!! He did many investor presentations and they were not interested in Trin as a producing business. He gave up doing them.
The BOD need to be under shareholder pressure ( the big guys) that or or they are placated by the plan given to date. If not placated by the AGM, they should not hide in the shadows. Shareholders have lost too much from a return to gung-ho drilling à la Eldorado 2014 $10m loss on dry well.
On good news, this will fly like a vertical drone. It is unlikely that there will be bad news, but it could just be lazy lifestyle plans, which are just as bad. I hope this will not be the case.
Trinity is worth well over £1.50 as it stands right now, let alone with Galeota or Buenos Ayres.
But we won’t know what they have learned from Jacobin ( apart from awareness of une certaine arrogance and awareness of an unforgiving market that they refuse to try to understand as usual). And nil communication. And Petrofac re. Galeota ? The list goes on.
They have done us and them much damage, and have a lot to live up to.
There are few shares around. Get it right and we will fly -only to be sold into of course so it will be short term. They need a stepped plan of cumulative and well-communicated positive newsflow. A first.
New business has predictably gone to Surinam , Venezuela and Guiana, and the govt.’s pledge that the oil would not stayin yhe ground 18 months ago was repeated rhetoric. They are languid and lazy with no electoral pressure and so business goes elsewhere.
No excuses. Just like in business.
Over to you Trin.

[aqc888] 28/3/2024 20:29

I think AB is still deciding whether or not he still supports the board. I suppose it’s difficult to revolt against people you’ve had pleasant one to one meetings with. Personally I think most investors have had enough. I imagine AB is sitting on greater losses than most here, I guess we can take heart he still sees value here. The oil price continues its rise, with a further 1.61% gain today. Upto 87.5 today

[nafafa] 27/3/2024 01:43

Andrew, good to know that you are still about, presumably you have not sold out! Does the fact that you have remained so quiet of late choosing not to contribute to the discussion on shareholder action, mean that you are not in favour and would not be prepared to lend your support? If that is the case I hope your confidence in management to do something sensible does not prove to be misplaced.

[skyship] 26/3/2024 07:41

Tug tows barge. Barge hits rocks and overturns. Giant oil spill results. Yet no-one seems to know the owner/origins of the barge!?

Surely the tug didn't/couldn't jet ski away into oblivion. Find the tug; find the culprits.

[andrewbyles] 26/3/2024 00:16

The formal award of the Buenos Ayres licence is due by the end of this week, but there’s a risk that the Energy Ministry will fail to meet the deadline either because it generally takes far too long to complete administrative tasks or because dealing with the recent mysterious oil spill of the coast of Tobago has diverted resources from issuing new licences.

If the licence award is announced this week, it’ll give Trinity the opportunity to provide shareholders with a proper update on how it’s progressing the development of Buenos Ayres. Hopefully, the opportunity will be taken and we’ll get more than a one line RNS.

[aqc888] 25/3/2024 16:50

When AIM technology/manufacturing companies trade at large discounts one always wonders what unseen horrors are lurking around with regards to new technologies, competitors etc etc. It’s reassuring with oil companies that one thing we don’t need to worry about is the product going out of fashion/becoming obsolete or their brand power weakening etc. Which makes the disconnect a little less worrying than with many other companies. Sure, we have our own worries like failed wells and oil price fluctuations etc. But I think we can safely say Galeota is there - waiting to be tapped at some point.

[nocents] 25/3/2024 16:01

It’ll happen.
BA is untouched. So untouched that they will have to build roads to reach the 10 planned wells. A virgin well is new territory for Trin, and it could genuinely rerate the share all by itself without Galeota.
Meanwhile the squanderers are making much cash at $73.6 actual received price.
We may be unfortunate in Q2,3,4 to see an average over $ 75 but that would squeeze the world economy a little and there are downward forces, but we will see.
There are few shares circulating due to the buybacks.
It may, in my opinion, take a long wait, but the climb back over £1 has to happen, even if only on realizing of true asset value. The large shareholders would sell if there were no hope…Newlands is in at over £1. So it is just a waiting game.
Lots of patience.
Maybe over a year.
But movements are parabolic. 100% would only take us to 76p, still massively undervalued. Cavendish have Trin over £2 target price 2024 with ARPrice at only $66 !!!

[spectoacc] 25/3/2024 15:18

Takes so little volume to move TRIN around, down or up - bodes well if/when some better news (or an overdue tip).

[skyship] 25/3/2024 14:08

nocents - rather than orbital, I think you perhaps mean parabolic. I agree with that, the share price should move almost vertically when the breakout finally comes.

[nocents] 25/3/2024 11:41

You can’t go wrong.
The only issue for us long term holders at over £1.25 is the number of holders who will sell on the rise, playing snakes and ladders with the share price.
When Trinity eventually re-rates( an inevitability), it will be orbital, as the present price is just a giveaway.
The management may have screwed up, but the conditions under which Trin operates have never been as profitable. And I think they will have learned hugely from their deep drilling folly. I cannot see a repeat or they will just be ousted.
I genuinely would buy if I had anything to buy with. Sometimes the market fails to see what is right stark staring in front of it.
So I will hold what little I have left and just wait.

[spittingbarrel] 25/3/2024 11:09

Sky, yes already a holder, I paid 38.5 for another 10,000

[skyship] 25/3/2024 10:12

sb - hopefully you are already a holder; if not don't miss what looks like an obvious good thing just for 0.5p! Maybe you were the subsequent buy at 37.98p & 38.5p.

[spittingbarrel] 25/3/2024 08:24

I just put in an order to buy at 37.5 and all I got was 3000! Pathetic.

[skyship] 24/3/2024 11:32

Might there be any logic to a bid from Touchstone (TXP)?

They are a larger organisation; and they surely might be tempted to pick up for peanuts the regular cashflow and Galeota potential that TRIN offers.

They would need to offer North of 80p to be listened to; even 100p. But still crazy cheap at even that level!

[pavey ark] 24/3/2024 10:44

In any other company I would take it that "no news was bad news" but although not ruling it out I'm not sure about TRIN......this time !!

Clayton is not big on shareholder engagement and management did make it clear that there would be no news until Q1 update so ???!!!

Certainly cash is coming in but this crowd have a real flair for shovelling it out the back door.

Regardless of the reasons the share price is rather obviously not just low but ridiculously low.
No amount of "this management doesn't have a clue" can justify a market cap of $18m and when $10m cash is very possible things are surreal.......EV $8m

Even without the added value in Galeota this is a ridiculous price.

Most have their full quota and potential investors must think there is something fundamentally wrong .....no buyers.

As far as the major shareholders are concerned.....they must have been smoothed...calmed down.....hints...nods...winks about how things will be turned round but management MUST realise that they are in the last chance saloon.

No meaningful production of any kind from Jacobin would/should spell the end for some.

[nocents] 23/3/2024 17:43

Yes about 5 weeks. Last year Q1 update was 27th April.
I, and several notable others, have requested communication on anything at all from Trin, but they seem unwilling to do so, or even respond to be honest. So late April it is.
1st June 28th June last year..FY results and AGM respectively.
So we have a hiatus now for about 5 weeks. And a hiatus of about 10 months to BA drilling, if it ever happens.
And still no news from Petrofac.
The silence on Jacobin is however quite deafening. As is the absence of responses to any emails at all. The new Trin.
Curious that 1) excellent oil price2) no hedging3) meaningful spt reform4) proper cash and profit generation 6) prospective drilling at shallow virgin wells7) dividend8) multiple assets….
Yet all-time low.
They do not sit together

[pavey ark] 23/3/2024 11:11

"Operations continue across our portfolio, including at the Jacobin well and we will update the market in further detail in our next quarterly update."

The above is from their last announcement 1/2/24

Looking at the time between a quarter end and the update I get an average of 3 to 4 weeks so we have c. 5 weeks to wait for any update.
The fact that the share price has fallen 20% since the last update is unlikely to change anything.

The only thing that could prompt an announcement in less than 4-5 weeks would be Galeota/fund raising/partial sale/sale but I don't think they will give any Jacobin update....unless they have to.

[nafafa] 21/3/2024 16:17

That is not correct, the share price languishes management because under the current management investors do not themselves making a return on investment. Not even the management prepared to buy these rock bottom prices!

[nocents] 21/3/2024 12:15

It is the norm for Trin. On AIM, such shares react to buys and sells only at times. There is no intelligence behind valuation. Trin is taking home a spot $73 actual realized price at the moment. This will certainly boost profit for 2,700 bopd in Q1 with no SPT.
Don’t expect Trin to reflect rising fortunes in oil. The market wears short-term blinkers and just wants communication and news. Longer term fortunes don’t fiigure in AIM and , I would argue, the market as awhole. It is not what it was. Take money and run market now.

[aqc888] 21/3/2024 10:37

Oil price keeps going up. Trinity share price keeps goes down.
Strange.