Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aqc888] 30/4/2024 15:48

Does seem to give a lot of credence to Nafafas views of what’s going on here…

[nocents] 30/4/2024 13:16

I have too. More people should. It is most curious.

[orbit007] 30/4/2024 11:54

It's very odd to say they will have an investor presentation last week and basically have nothing announced. Do they not realise that reneging on RNSs just adds to the sense of distrust in their competence. I am emailing IR to find out what is going on.

[nocents] 29/4/2024 08:14

hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/trinity-exploration-production-plc/research/cavendish/trinity-exploration-and-production-core-business-remains-robust-cost-manageme/129_afc9233b-2826-4b91-a248-07ce5f5c861a/78009ef9-7b5f-46f7-b1bb-c6ec80c7a573

New note today

It is 1.9 US cents btw

When is this Investormeet?

33p now.
I capitulate.

[skyship] 29/4/2024 08:07

nocents - thnx for posting the link.

Interesting reading for sure. EPS 16.6p. Divi at 1.9p so yield of 5% @ 38p. PER a mere 2.3x.

[nocents] 28/4/2024 11:42

hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/oil-gas-e-ps/trinity-exploration-production-plc/research/cavendish/trinity-exploration-and-production-reserves-reduction-but-solid-core-business/129_cc6b1ac9-34db-4c8c-ac4c-d2e201322ff2/9cb50114-6896-4085-bd69-90b792be03bc

[aqc888] 28/4/2024 10:17

Wasn’t it a target well over 300p before?
Ah, cavendish was just over 200p and ABs view was just over 300p, I think.
Does the cut correlate to the reduced reserves?

[skyship] 28/4/2024 09:53

Sleepy - I seem to have missed the Cavendish update. Can you post the link.

A target fall to a mere 76p looks, way, way overdone!

[nocents] 27/4/2024 13:36

I do agree. And have always said so . Since the Jacobin fiasco.
1) There is something afoot. The inexact Investormeet is because of this.
2) There is nothing afoot. The inexact Investormeet is because they are disorganized nincompoops.
3) Large shareholders have put the pressure on to sell part/full but we don’t know it.
4) The BOD are still in incommunicado-mode ( their defence mechanism) and just taking salary for as long as they can spin out a year or longer , using BA as a carrot.
5) The above ( number 4) but with covert pressure from large shareholders which they think they can milk as long as possible.
6) Large shareholders have possibly commanded a plan to sell, but Trin will take their time as usual.
7) They are just accumulating regular cash and getting paid nicely
8) Lots of other possibilities I can’t think of right now.
9) Assets are up for sale but the govt. of course has to approve/reject them as in 2016 with West Coast and TXP rejected.

We are where we are because of incompetence, repetitive nil communication with shareholders and the market, facile RNS’s that would possibly make the previous CEO turn over( meant respectfully), and delays delays delays or no plan at all. ( Remember the drill bit for Horizontal well, Hummingbirds, Petrofac appraisal bla bla.
Trin need to be held to account.
I choose to believe the large shareholders are doing so. I fear going private and know we are cannon fodder but hope not.
I was party to an Investormeet with 4D which was held just to retain shareholders a week before insolvency, so I know not to put any credence on this meetin per se. But insolvency is not the case here and Trin is not 4D who just lied.
But incompetence must be addressed. The large shareholders may have done this-I don’t think they are complacent, but I have no evidence either way. Hypothesis. As Ab said, 5 NED’s might oppose going private. I would hope so.
Ultimately I am Manuel from Fawlty Towers who knows nothing about what is really going on.

[orbit007] 27/4/2024 12:27

That price target assumes no funding would be available for development of assets, as though a company and it's shareholders should accept this as fact and that funding is some sort of unachievable nirvana. Ok this is now the biggest issue here for me.

The board seem to think it acceptable to just muddle along taking home massive salaries here whilst dragging out the process of getting assets appraised and sold or farmed out. It is unacceptable. In 2022 they were trying to farm out assets, its 2 years on and they imply they need another year, why!?

They need some form of urgency to get this done. I have to agree with all on here that have called for shareholders to give them a kick up the rear.

The fact that top shareholders remain silent on the issue does make you think there is something afoot and if not then the incompetence is not limited to the management and board.

I am 100% convinced the current share price and discount to NAV is caused by the current management team having no drive and proper no financial incentive for change, they lost confidence from the market....if they can be replaced and someone with urgency comes in, I think a decent return can be made.

[sleepy] 27/4/2024 12:01

Not sure if it has been noted already but following the reserves reduction Cavendish reduced their price target to 76p

[nocents] 26/4/2024 22:23

I think you will find he has been targeted. I , for one, have done. I am not alone. It would be of benefit, I believe, if more people did the same.
Email [e-mail]
Or write directly to the company solicitors.
He really ought to be present at the virtual virtual Investormeet, and so should Julian and Mr. Menzies in my opinion. A lot of salient questions to answer. I hope they areall there-if it happens- and are candid and honest. I still believe we are perceived as a nuisance, but the sum of total shareholder holdings by certain individuals outweigh the option of total avoidance.
We have been led a very merry dance.

[slicethepie] 26/4/2024 21:36

I really think we should be targeting the chairman, it is his responsibility to question the competence of the execs and set strategy. Clayton has the background and experience he should be challenging the execs and not letting them off for delivering poor outcomes.

[nafafa] 26/4/2024 21:33

I think payment of the 1.5p dividend is the least of our worries. For those of us with a break north of £1, the 1.5 outstanding dividend is pretty meaningless. I suspect things may well go quiet now until year end results and notice of AGM posted at the beginning of June.

[nocents] 26/4/2024 20:39

Thanks Ab.Your lucid detailed pointsbalance my angry ranting. I still feel that intervention would push these guys out or at least push them forwards but I also agree with Orbit that stalling incites the suspicion of a nice little salary number a bit longer. You could retire on what they earn. I could live in retirement on less than a tenth of it. I feel the dreadfully slow progress, awful Galeota and BA shunting down the line was inevitable , as mentioned recently many times before today, and their facile RNS’s are just feeble. You would not have heard me say this before Bruce and Tracy left. They were the drivers of professionalism. Now gone to pot. There will be no sale whilst nice salaries are being earned. Let us stay real.I fear going private and hope the NED’s will prevent this.
I feel convinced we are just a nuisance.
As I said this week, I have never known a good Q1 result. Costs. Mainly insurance and SPT Q4 . We may have SPT Q3 for this quarter the way oil is going though.
I am told a div. of 1.5p is due sometime. Where are details of ex-div and payment dates though? If not known, I will ask at the virtual virtual unknown Investormeet which was going to be announced but wasn’t (?!)
Thanks for the info. And a balanced few posts.
Mine are often too emotive.

[orbit007] 26/4/2024 19:22

Good post AB.

From my reading of the Galeota farm out, they paused it in 2022 because the tax situation was 'evolving' and that made it harder to value, they also had a plan that required $250m capex up front. Tax regime is sorted now. It is frustrating then that its taking so long for them to issue a new field dev plan that can be marketed and sold to investors - and it does feel like stalling to take home the salary another year.

On Jacobin, that is the only near term catalyst I could see some good news from...

I honestly don't see a takeover or sale anytime soon, and I think its partly because the board are very very comfy where they are thanks

[nafafa] 26/4/2024 18:40

That's correct, the Newlands have always been very active and I think previously even had a place on the board. It leaves me increasingly concerned that there is another agenda here, which is for those large shareholders to take the business private on the cheap. If that is the case, the small shareholder can do nothing about it and get shafted big time.

[nocents] 26/4/2024 16:01

Sky I have thought the same. Often. But Newlands has been proactive before I believe. I do feel that wealth isolates from such events as these if lifestyle has not been affected. Maybe they just don’t care enough. I do think that there should have been some communication , but the BOD don’t seem in a hurry to do anything much except get paid. Galeota?? No timeline. BA…manýana.Whenever.
And I would like to know about the dividend.
Are still getting it??? I certainly sadly need it 🙄 .
Bruce’s departure took professionalism with it. He knew his oil stuff and was respected and had contacts. I don’t think this shower have a clue apart from how to spend their easy money. I feel myself becoming more and more unhealthily Grinch-like but with anger. I don’t like it.
So..somebody…..are we due a dividend” set in stone” of 1p per share in June?

[skyship] 26/4/2024 14:34

nocents - today's 10% drop is totally bizarre; though with no buyers in sight, I suppose to be expected.

I agree wholeheartedly that the big shareholders should be stepping in to help put matters right. But could well be that they are just wealthy individuals with no real sense about business or markets.

Would certainly seem that way as otherwise they would have acted well before now; so I suspect we can't look for assistance from that direction.

[strathroyal] 26/4/2024 14:32

Galeota already fading back into 2025, BA has gone from definite H1 to late Q2/early Q3. We seem to be getting more moderate posts from both Andrew and Pavey, in fact wouldn't disagree with PA's recent post apart from his comment on the share price We have seen at the time of the buybacks and the initial excitement over Jacobin that the share price can quickly spike but with no short term catalysts, another year to pass before any growth in bopd, why would anyone new buy these shares? Talk about tomorrow never comes!

[nocents] 26/4/2024 13:16

It is a problem when it rises. It dilutes the rise certainly. But also dilutes drops to a degree. But not enough. When there is demand, Trin rockets. Perhaps not as much as it could have as a 3.5p share though.
It was diluted in order to try to prevent such volatility, but since Bruce died, we have had quasi-quango oil executives in charge who clearly don’t understand the risks of exploration nor the market, and prefer not to communicate at all about anything unless they have to.
I personally hope the large shareholders step in. Have they too not had enough. Do they finally not see the light? Reality?

[mibb] 26/4/2024 12:32

Is the lack of shares part of the problem? You would think it would cause a squeeze with 60 to 70% locked up, and only 39m shares in issue; but going from 40p to £1 seems like a big deal, compared to a 2p share going to 5p ?

[nocents] 26/4/2024 10:39

To be at this stupendously pathetic share price under the current production, profit and risked or unrisked NAV is how the market responds to Noddies at the top.
They really have no idea. And I am not in the oil business but know that much. A feeble RNS. Unexplained and superficial.
CEO? As per Boris,
“For goodness sake man, go” .
Shareholders vote the board out at an AGM. Force a pay cut. Force zero bonus. Force explanations.
Force in a competent set of executives. Decent salaries in a non-expensive country. Do something.
The current share price is indicative of the level of ineptness perceived by small shareholders and the market.
Messrs. Newlands, Winther, Castro, Van Leuders et. al…….call to arms.
Do not trust vacant promises, because the market certainly doesn’t !!!!!!!