Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 17/10/2018 10:29

All looking on track.

[mount teide] 17/10/2018 09:07

Encouraging update - good to see them now pushing on with the production development operations:


Latest production figure is 224 bopd up from the Q2/2018 previous high point and 311 bopd from Q3/2018.

Achieved through

Increasing the number of Trintes offshore wells producing from 17 to 31
Initial production from 2 new onshore infill wells
Completing 6 Well Recompletions
Completing 38 Workovers

Outlook:
"the Company remains confident that 2018 exit production will be in excess of 3,000 bopd" Certainly would hope so if we are currently averaging 3,045 bopd - would have been good to have seen a little more ambition here with production from up to four new infill wells due to come on-stream in the quarter.

[mark10101] 17/10/2018 09:00

Looks like they are sticking to the chart I posted in the header. Finally getting production traction. Trintes recompletiom yet to be performed which should give a healthy boost. As a long term holder great to be back above 3000bopd and have $18m in the bank with some exciting prospect ahead in the next few months.

[wwick] 17/10/2018 08:18

Very positive statement "To that end, the first two wells of the new onshore drilling campaign came on stream earlier this month and this, alongside increased offshore activities, has contributed to increasing levels of production, which has averaged 3,045 bopd to date from the beginning of October."

[mark10101] 15/10/2018 13:37

From the new Website. I thought it may turn out to be a good move not to sell the West Coast assets.....



Production Potential:
Immediate short-term uplift potential of up to 250 bopd from bringing ABM-151 back-on, 17 Infill locations identified/matured from two development programmes (BM inner: 4 offshore & Outer Brighton/Guapo Bay: 2 offshore & 11 onshore land wells)
The 11 lower cost land wells are to deplete 0.75 mmbbls
Current base production has the potential to rise to almost 2,900 bopd from identified infill locations and. greenfield development programmes at Point Ligoure where ALM-22 tested at over 300 bopd, 16.2 API/437@107 deg.F). TT refinery can take heavy crudes
Further upside potential from enhanced oil recovery (EOR) options & expl. prospects
Data: logs/well files/geological and sesimic projects are in the digital domain having had significant work done so lend themselves to modern interpretive work flows

[mark10101] 15/10/2018 13:05

TRIN have updated the website.

[nocents] 12/10/2018 18:29

Good to re-read.

[spellbrook] 12/10/2018 10:37

Trinity primed for profitable growth

Simon Thompson


Worth another read .......................


Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN:17.45p) had been on my watch list for over a year when I decided the time and price was right to recommend buying the shares in this month’s Alpha Report at the current price (‘Resurrection points to a strong recovery’, 3 Sep 2018).

Trinity is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused solely on Trinidad and Tobago, the wealthiest country in the Caribbean. It operates producing and development assets both onshore and offshore, in the shallow water West and East Coasts of Trinidad where it has nine licences encompassing 1,165 wells of which 140 are active onshore, and 40 active offshore.

The operating environment is favourable. Trinidad and Tobago has the third-lowest business tax rates amongst Latin America and Caribbean countries, is the eighth-largest producer of liquified natural gas (LNG) in the world, and boasts significant proven energy reserves of petroleum and natural gas. The economy is heavily reliant upon the energy sector, which makes up 45 per cent of GDP and 83 per cent of exports. Trinity accounts for 4.3 per cent of Trinidad and Tobago’s total annual oil production. It is also one of the lowest cost producers as first-half results this week highlight.

Trinity’s onshore production increased by 20 per cent to account for 1,530 of its 2,771 barrels of oil per day (bopd) output in the first half this year, and at an operating break-even cost of just $15.70 per barrel. Offshore production was up 15 per cent to 1,046 bopd, all of which comes from a 100 per cent interest in the Trintes field (2P reserves of 14.78m barrels). Trintes has a relatively benign reservoir to produce from, and benefits from high API of oil (an industry measure to quantify how heavy or light a petroleum liquid is compared with water), low formation temperatures and effective sand control, all of which are supportive of an offshore operating cost of only $27.80 per barrel.

So, with the average realised oil price rising by 30 per cent to $60 a barrel, and net production up by 16 per cent to 2,771 bopd including a contribution from its small West Coast operations, Trinity’s revenues surged by half to $30m to lift operating profits by 35 per cent to $2.6m in the six-month trading period. After tax charges – mainly Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) which is charged at a rate of 18 per cent and 26 per cent on net revenues (gross revenue less royalties less incentives) on onshore and offshore assets, respectively, when realised oil prices are higher than $50 a barrel – Trinity more or less hit break-even if you ignore exceptional gains. Operating cash flow of $5m covered capital expenditure of $4.4m.

I was expecting as much, but what prompted me to recommend buying the shares are prospects from this point onwards, and a very attractive valuation. Indeed, far more informative are the fresh forecasts from house broker Cenkos Securities, which point towards 2019 pre-tax and post-tax profits of $12.4m, which factors in an operating profit of $20m less SPT of $7.4m and nil corporation tax charge to reflect the benefit of past tax losses. This forecast assumes annual revenues of $72.2m and is based on a conservative-looking average oil price of $63.32 a barrel. If achieved then a net cash inflow north of $16m from operating activities will cover $14.3m of capital expenditure next year.

On this basis, expect EPS of 3.2¢ which implies the shares are rated on a forward PE ratio of only 7. They are also priced on less than half risked net asset value (NAV) of 38p a share based on 2P proven reserves of 23.18m barrels and cash in the bank. Risked NAV is even higher at 47.2p a share if you factor in almost 24m barrels of Trinity’s 2C resources.

It’s important, though, to understand why a £67m market capitalised company that has just hit break even could be making net profits close to £10m next year.



Summer fundraise a game changer

Up until the company’s 2013 reverse takeover of Aim-traded Bayfield Energy, another operator in the country, Trinity had a successful track record under the leadership of Bruce Dingwall, the founder and former chief executive of Venture Production, a UK oil and gas company that was acquired by Centrica for £1.3bn in 2009. Mr Dingwall led a management buyout of Venture’s Trinidad and Tobago assets, and built up a business producing 1,500 barrels of oil per day (bopd) by the time of the takeover. However, a major shortfall in Bayfield’s production coupled with increased costs forced Trinity to seek a settlement with its creditors two years ago after oil prices plunged to their lowest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Not surprisingly investors have been cautious since then. However, a $20m (£15.5m) equity raise at 15p a share over the summer was a real game changer, wiping out liabilities to the convertible loan note (CLN) holders and other creditors who backed Trinity’s rescue plan in December 2016. Holders of 88 per cent of the CLNs opted to convert into equity at the placing price, a resounding vote of confidence. Trinity’s senior management team purchased almost 15m shares and own 24 per cent of the share capital, so they have skin in the game.

As a result of the equity raise, Trinity is freed of financial constraints and a cash pile of $19m (£14.6m) means it has the funds to embark on a high-margin, low operating expenditure programme to boost onshore production at a time when the price of black gold is surging. The plan is to target between 8 and 10 new wells each year, and at a cost of $12m, in order to grow annual production by 10 per cent. Boasting an onshore operating break-even point sub-$16 per barrel, and with 80 per cent of the cost base fixed, then rising production combined with higher oil prices will have a significant operational gearing effect on future profitability.

Interestingly, there is no problem finding oil in Trinity and Tobago as the geology is characterised by large oil in place volumes, but low recovery factors and well productivity resulting from low reservoir energy. Importantly, the geology doesn’t require complex completion techniques or fracking, rather efficient execution and use of pumps. Initial production rates from wells tend to range between 50 and 100 bopd, with decline rates of around 10 per cent each year. If all goes according to plan then Trinity should be able to lift production by a quarter to 3,500 bopd by 2020 from its accelerated onshore drilling activities. The financial returns are eye-catching with the pay-back period only 10 months on a new well based on a $60 per barrel oil price. Trinity is also unhedged for next year’s output so will benefit from the surging oil price whereas it was previously forced to lock into hedging arrangements to guarantee cash flow for its creditors.

As investors cotton onto the transformation in Trinity’s finances and operational prospects, and the company delivers the step change in profitability I am anticipating, I can see the share price make headway towards my 28p target price as the discount to risked NAV narrows. The short-term profit taking post results represents a buying opportunity well worth exploiting. Buy.

[mark10101] 12/10/2018 10:32

Volume not that great, just highlights that TRIN can move up as strongly as it can fall. Seems the sellers are exhausted, price still rising. Lets just hope the global markets steady and form a good background for our bounce back.

[dunderheed] 12/10/2018 10:01

Nice pick up today - but I don't want to jinx it lol!!
Still very low m/cap imho.

[mark10101] 12/10/2018 09:53

Yesterday was the perfect bottom, we went down to the 2 year uptrend support and there was steady buying all the way back up to finish slightly up. It sets us up perfectly for the rebound today. Add in the fact every day that passes TRIN is growing production I still maintain November and December this board will be a lot cheerier place.

[spellbrook] 12/10/2018 09:39

nice solid buying this am..

Wheres those AT sells ??? (LOL)

[nocents] 11/10/2018 17:55

Prince. No he never said that. I personally don’t agree with his dismissal ofcsome posters. It’s a free world. Just filter them. I do.
He has had the guts to come outcand admit his selling and that he is not responsible for the drop. He didn’t have to. Moaning is fine. Criticismnof BOD is fine. I do sometimes. I was f’ud by the Placing even if they did it for the right reasons. Yes we can moan. Yes we can be dummasses at times. Yes we can get things wrong too. It’s called being human. Filter who you don’t like. Or tolerate them. GO has much of value to say. He is no guro. Guru means” bringer of light”.
He is only a guru if you choose tonsee him as such.
I’ll be sad if he posts nommore.
We can all be gurus. Or bringers of the negative.
Civility is king.Always.
Roll on Trin.

[mark10101] 11/10/2018 15:48

Not that we should be celebrating people loosing their jobs but it does allow the Petrotrin reform to move forward, which ultimately I believe will benefit the country and the industry as supportive measure are put in place.

[spellbrook] 11/10/2018 13:45

No debt and closing in on 3000 bopd is good enough for me m

I trust no one and love the old tax bill due

Time will tell

Drilling and no DEBT

[princebuster2] 11/10/2018 13:38

So what the great guru GO is saying is..if youre a football fan and you pay good money to go and see you’re team year after year, youre not allowed to sit on the terrace and shout n get a bit annoyed if the team play poor or do things that disrespect the fans oh no you must sit and your hands and only make a noise if they win. In fact if you wanna have a moan just throw in your season ticket and go and support another team!? Hmmmm really.

[mark10101] 11/10/2018 13:04

Posted by GO on LSE and reposted with his permission.



My summary of where we are now:

The pain from the placing has been felt, but the benefit from the placing has not yet been felt and some time has elapsed.

I am sure the company knows this. The fundamentals are not just good, they are GREAT... the company is run by great people, from the BOD down...so I am digging deep for the resolve to see how it plays out...

JPJ

[mark10101] 11/10/2018 13:03

Posted by GO on LSE and posted here with his permission.

Hello...
I started investing in Trin at around 9.7 p. I now own just a little below the threshold of 3% having come down from something over 4%. I was of a size then that allowed me to participate in the placing...the placing took me by surprise (as it did us all). In order to avoid dilution of my holding I partially participated in the placing (hence dilution below 4% at time of placing) with money that I had set aside for a tax bill. The tax bill is due at the end of the year. As the year has rolled forward I have been prudently selling in a way so as not to disrupt the price in order to not be caught out in December needing to sell shares in Trin with no buyers in sight...none of us, myself included, would want to see that! I started selling at 21 p and finished selling at 17 p...my tax bill is covered.

Confounded, Ross Annan, CRL and WITJ know who i am...over the last ~16 months I have sought on this board and the other one to put out reasonable posting with good information flow of my findings about Trinity and the landscape of T&T.

This company still has great fundamentals and I still have many shares.

I stopped posting and I stopped putting things out there as a good shareholder citizen (spreadsheets etc) for the following reasons:

It presented no upside for me and the contacts that I respected from these boards, I now know personally as they all wanted my spreadsheet...we chat elsewhere.

I no longer wanted to participate on Boards that seems to have attracted such a low caliber of commentary. I just don't understand it...if you hate Trin and hold it...sell it and move on...cut your losses or make a profit but life is too short.

For me, I know that employees of Trinity read these boards and I cannot imagine how their morale fares knowing they are representing some of the shareholders like many who post here.

Trin is a long term proposition and therefore what is the point in posting with any frequency?

Life is too short when there is no healthy debate.

I am posting here again because my name seems to be the reason that some are mentioning the share price is down at 15 p with no end in sight.

I am extremely pleased to see TXP doing well with its drilling! For me it demonstrates what can be done in Trinidad & Tobago and presents a really hopeful scenario for Trinity (who has embarked on a comparable journey in case we have all forgotten).

I cannot understand certain embittered posters continue to smash Trinity (who seemingly hold shares in the company WTF?)...these characters are really upset about the placing so exact their anxst on the shareholder base rather than talking to the company...Tracy confirms she has never heard from any of these people...again, pick up the phone? How is smashing Trinity shareholders on the Trinity board about a decision that most of them are suffering from any decent way to behave? Its not like selling barrels of oil is a zero sum where it is either theirs or ours!?

JPJ

[dunderheed] 11/10/2018 11:44

2617 good post mm! +1

[marvelman] 11/10/2018 11:42

DX...I too added at those levels along with others I am sure...we had no idea then that the BOD would undermine our justification when at that time it was looking towards 30p and onwards..lets not kick each other when we are down..its been a bad enough time since those heady days :-))

[wwick] 11/10/2018 11:35

Dave & Sleve, nice one! This is a market driven opportunity today, not a reflection on TRIN at all.

[sleveen] 11/10/2018 10:41

MC of £59m and forecast production of 3k bopd by Jan 2019.

Decent value IMHO.

[sleveen] 11/10/2018 10:02

me too @ 15.51p