Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[diseasex] 20/11/2018 14:43

Oh yeah,
I wish you guys the best though , hope it bounces back and gets to 20 quickly on some good news.
I will come back only when they will abolish SPT tax.

[nafafa] 20/11/2018 14:33

Good for you, clearly a person of great foresight, a talent that has passed me by.

[diseasex] 20/11/2018 13:59

In the meantime I'll enjoy it a bit more . The decision to sell at 18 that is.

[paleje] 20/11/2018 12:59

Simon Thompson today says:-

My models suggest that Trinity should realistically be able to make 2019 post-tax profits of £5m based on the median WTI future oil price for 2019 delivery and using an average exchange rate of £1:US$1.28. This means that net of its cash pile Trinity’s shares are rated on a PE ratio of six. They are also priced almost 70 per cent below risked net NAV of 38p a share based on 2P proven reserves of 23.18m barrels and cash in the bank.

So, although the massively oversold shares are likely to remain volatile in the near term, my medium-term investment case still holds and I feel the risk:reward ratio is skewed to the upside at this depressed level. Buy.

[marvelman] 20/11/2018 12:50

Yes, those of us who have been in this "investment", more than a little while know this stock and its foibles very well by now. We really do not need to be sniped at from the sidelines by former investors telling us what we already know and effectively crowing about the fact that they got out before this drop off a cliff came about. Those that are still here know the risks and choose to accept them. Even experienced investors have been in this position at some point in their career and should try and remember what it felt like when the shoe was on the other foot.

[mark10101] 20/11/2018 12:23

Decent buying volume now and nice reversal. A puke moment for sure. A lot to be positive about and a whiff of the T&T and structural changes expected/promised we will be a lot higher than here regardless of oil price.

Who knows with oil but the Saudi's have been humiliated by Trump, that may lead to some extreme moves by them. So many options at their disposal and even though it is hard to imagine atm the rise in oil could be quicker than the fall.

[nafafa] 20/11/2018 12:20

Your memory is selective or you are unaware. The placing cleared the CLNs, otherwise over 20 months Trin has paid down $18m of debt and built a cash pile of $15m to $20m, how creative is that?

[diseasex] 20/11/2018 10:33

this breakeven at 30$ is just creative accountancy. They were still burning cash from placing at 70$ oil. Whereas they should have been making millions

[mark10101] 20/11/2018 10:18

Since we broke support at around 15p we have had only 3m sells over the last week, very little of the total stock. Had the company bought every sell it would have cost £500k and defended £10m of MCAP. So exactly the 20 x I speculated earlier. I know life if not as simple as that and had the price stayed firmer more people may have sold to take advantage.

Currently it is a low volume fall that with the right news can easily be reversed. We need a bit of luck re oil and for the T&T government to take the thumbs screws off T&T producers and let them deliver the new BOPD the country needs and will benefit from.

[nafafa] 20/11/2018 09:28

Since investment merely serves to line the pockets of the T&T exchequer, a divi payout of 3p to 4p a share would be most welcome

[paleje] 20/11/2018 09:07

From IC in September:-

..Cenkos Securities, which point towards 2019 pre-tax and post-tax profits of $12.4m, which factors in an operating profit of $20m less SPT of $7.4m and nil corporation tax charge to reflect the benefit of past tax losses. This forecast assumes annual revenues of $72.2m and is based on a conservative-looking average oil price of $63.32 a barrel. If achieved then a net cash inflow north of $16m from operating activities will cover $14.3m of capital expenditure next year.
On this basis, expect EPS of 3.2¢...

[nafafa] 20/11/2018 08:51

Not true, Trin production cost is just under $30/barrel, including royalties. Tax losses mean no ppt for quite some time. Nasty spt means they are better off when WTI falls below $55 than in the range $55 to $65. Nevertheless I agree market sentiment may drive down share price further.

[nafafa] 20/11/2018 08:51

Not true, Trin production cost is just under $30/barrel, including royalties. Tax losses mean no ppt for quite some time. Nasty spt means they are better off when WTI falls below $55 than in the range $55 to $65. Nevertheless I agree market sentiment may drive down share price further.

[paleje] 20/11/2018 08:42

This is getting a kicking but in September, in an IC article, Cenkos forecast eps around 2.5p for 2019 based on ~$63/brl oil. That's profitable in fact a PE of 5 against current share price is cheap.

Of course you have to take a view on oil, not the daily headlines.

[sleveen] 20/11/2018 08:40

Is it though?

I took a small loss @15p when the POO began to fall in early October.

[nocents] 20/11/2018 08:37

Overdone or what

[diseasex] 20/11/2018 00:46

exactly this company wasn't making any profit at oil being 70-80. I think you guys will be trading at below 10 soon.

[esmerelda] 19/11/2018 23:52

But why invest in O&G stocks with the oil price where it is? Just how profitable is TRIN at this time? Just questions, I am on the outside looking in at the moment.

[loafingchard] 19/11/2018 22:20

Can anyone join in ?