Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 26/10/2018 13:29

So why is TXP down so much?

[nocents] 25/10/2018 23:09

Well-said Mark. Reality as we know it. ( revamped Leonard Nimoy aka Spock). Nonother indie oiler in T and T is as well - positioned nor as well- respected ( due to govt debt pay off) to take due advantage of a quickly evolving situation. Mainly due to Petrotrin and implications. Macro - events re. oil are more mind-bending. Discerning the truth abput supply/ demand. The US winter will tell us soon enough. We’ll have an idea by end Jan.

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 21:22

MT, I was a holder during suspension so it would be hard to forget. I also understand the implication of rising oil, and you will find the deal would have been done around $45 WTI because it was announced in Dec 2016 and in Novermber there was still a lot of fear around oil with “lower for longer” being the ridiculous mantra. When has oil ever plateaued!

I also remember the naysayers on here saying we would be at 5p maybe 10p Max for years due to the placing being at 5p and there being a huge number of shares/sellers. We hit 18p in months and 27p just over a year from that placing. You are right the recent raise was not met with survival euphoria but the market will get to grips with the potential for the new debt free, well financed TRIN that can take advantage of any opertunities that arrive as T&T restructures. No other T&T oiler is positioned as TRIN is.

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 17:51

Mark - bear in mind that in 2016 Brent doubled in price from $28 to $56 mostly while Trinity had suspended trading in its shares pending clarification of its financial position and to secure bankruptcy protection in an effort to buy time to achieve a financial restructuring.

Not every company comes out of bankruptcy protection, never mind comes out 6 months later to find that the sales price of its only revenue earning product had doubled in price since earlier that year!

To say the TRIN management had more than their fair share of luck in 2016 was an understatement of epic proportions!

I strongly suspect it was only the recovery in the oil price while in suspension to over $50 that enabled a financial restructuring to be achieved. Anything below $40 in H2/2016 and it would likely have been "good night Josephine".

[nocents] 25/10/2018 16:42

Buy now? Absolutely.No moaning from this point about the Placing price . You can moan about the Placing but what a ‘in bargain right now. OMG

[lexus880] 25/10/2018 15:26

for those who wanted to buy at the placing price now's your chance?

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 12:10

That is the market, It presents opertunities. Of course I wished I had sold at each of the peaks and bought each of the troughs like now. However the true rerating events are yet to happen in my view, hences hanging on.

[princebuster2] 25/10/2018 11:50

I dunno man...its all so frustrating. Like perfectly placed now..no debt etc BUT this time last year we were not perfectly placed and had debts with a much lower oil price but we were in the 20s! Makes no sense to me at all how we can be in a stronger position now yet here we are 15p!?!

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 11:40

PB2, I am not holding for production updates and have not held since the 18p high in March last year for them either. I have held for oils advance (if we get into the $80's WTI all oilers should receive a lot more interest). TRINs re-rate should also come from the T&T restructuring which we are perfectly positioned for. We have received many hints this is what the sudden placing was for, time will tell if the placing will deliver the share holder value I hope for and expect (having been through the pain myself).

[princebuster2] 25/10/2018 11:18

No one is buying in at 15p!? Quite the opposite! The placement may have worked out nicely for the Directors but its completely destroyed the share price snd its potential. You cant keep saying ‘on good news, good results this will find its true value’ cos on all news released, even good, the share price has only ever dropped! The past history of this company and the recent placing hangs grimly over this company and this is totally reflected in the share price

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 10:52

MT, that still does not explain why with such a massive placing in 2017 with 3 times the number of shares in issue people did not sell into that relief rally impeding its progress.....

By comparison the recent placing was relatively small, yet undeniably when measured from the recent highs very painful, but that matters not for those picking up TRIN at 15p today! With the right news I believe a similar rally is possible and like last time people will re-evaluate their sell price when the the full context of TRINS potential is revealed to a currently very somber market.

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 10:34

A massive relief rally after all looked lost after the management took the company to the very edge of death's door during the latter stages of a long oil sector recession (158p to 1.75p followed by a tripling of the shares in issue is not something you're ever likely to see on the management's CV's!).

TXP avoided such a scenario by smart oil price hedging - one of the benefits of having an economist by training at the wheel.

That the share price has gone sideways for 18 months while oil has nearly doubled in price continues to tell its own story about the impact the hugely discounted placing is continuing to have on the valuation.

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 09:59

MT, with your wisdom above can you explain why TRIN trippled its shares in issue at 4.96p and then went on to 18p in a few months?

[mark10101] 25/10/2018 09:46

A solid test of 15p is/will be healthy in support of a move up in Nov once the market settle down and the T&T landscape develops. CENKOS's 38p is not a fanciful guess, it has potential to be exceeded if Bruce delivers the bigger picture as hopped.

[mount teide] 25/10/2018 09:43

The 40% dilution at 15p following strong support from PI's pushing the share price to 28p is likely to hang over TRIN for some time to come.

The concern i still have with such a large, heavily discounted placing is this - many of those invited to the 15p party at PI's expense may be happy to take a 15% - 25% return over the following year. Considering the huge number of shares they were offered and took up, this could hold the share price back for a long time.

I also suspect it will be a long time, if at all, before the names of many of the PI's who bought above 17p in the run up to 28p are seen on the shareholders register again.

[marvelman] 25/10/2018 09:21

Almost invariably it does Spellbrook...so why don't I take note of what I know is likely to happen rather than buy at higher prices...answer on an Email addressed to "[e-mail]"

[nocents] 25/10/2018 09:15

At least it’s not the buy price!!

[spellbrook] 25/10/2018 09:03

back to recent placing 15p.......

lets see where we go from here ????????

[nocents] 24/10/2018 21:19

Sorry about typos as usual

[marvelman] 24/10/2018 19:23

Well the share price reached circa 28p only 5 months ago (albeit for only 5 minutes). No one says the price target has to last more than a few seconds after all..and I would not need more than that length of time to scarper with a profit and thank the lord for the opportunity.

[princebuster2] 24/10/2018 11:44

Hahahaha them n WH been saying this for two years! I could do a better job and I know FA about shares! Here: PB2 puts a target price of 15-17p on trin over next year. Lets see whos more accurate!!

[wwick] 24/10/2018 11:09

CENKOS 24 Oct 2018 - "Valuation – Given the Company’s strong balance sheet following the repayment of all outstanding debt and with all six wells as part of the current infill drilling campaign expected to be on production by Q1/19, Trinity is in a very strong position. We therefore reiterate our price target of 38p and our BUY recommendation."

[spellbrook] 24/10/2018 10:17

Another tweet

Trinity E&P
‏

@Trinity_PLC
2m2 minutes ago
More
Trinity Exploration #TRIN Cenkos says; Given the Co's strong balance sheet following the repayment of all outstanding debt and with all 6 wells as part of the current infill drilling campaign expected to be on production by Q1/19, Trinity is in a very strong position. 38p TP