Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[whiskeyinthejar] 21/11/2017 07:35

Kaos, most of the production will remain unhedged:

"In addition, the quantum of the hedge ensures that Trinity would continue to benefit from an appreciation in WTI above the cap for the majority of its production"

I personally dont see wti going much above the collar ($59.80) for very long next year. Maybe we'll see a bit of $65, but I think $80 plus is unlikely, and even then majority of oil is unhedged.

Also, I think the hedge can be sold if we dont want it any more.

[kaos3] 21/11/2017 07:07

Q on T&T tax reform POO and the hedge

1. POO rising or falling Will have no major impackt on trin as most of production is hedged?

2. positive T&T tax reform Will go straight to the trin despite the free hedge?

3. are there any provisions about it in the hedge contract - is it plain vanilla collar constructed in the market or is it trin specific hedge derivative contract?

[spellbrook] 20/11/2017 23:41

Interesting tweet from Team #TRIN..comes with a photo of the platform....


#TRIN $TRIN Rowan Gorilla III drilling the sucessful TGAL-1 exploration well in 2013 offshore SE Trinidad. The well discovered 186 mmbbl (STOIIP) and is located ≈1.2 km from the four platforms of Trinity's producing Trintes Field.

[mark10101] 20/11/2017 21:56

Electric vehicles are the future, they are better in almost every aspect, we have just got to work out how we are going to feed them, and we will. Howerver, very much as the article points out, some of the recent weakness of oil was it pricing in efficiencies and the growth of electric vehicle use a little prematurely. This could well have sown the seeds for much much higher oil increasing the viability of electric vehicles.

[soupdragon55] 20/11/2017 21:44

Shrewd, most studies have proven that electric cars are cleaner over their life span and recently backed up by MIT Tracik Lab in their letter correcting the Financial Times for misreporting. The average electric car in the US produced about half the carbon emissions of a conventional car over its lifetime.

Also you don't get the problem of nOX emissions which contribute to thousands of deaths each year from air quality issues.

[che7win] 20/11/2017 21:39

Shrew/Mark, Yes, it's sums up a lot of the issues with fracking - that it doesn't make money and cheap money via quantitative easing has been poorly invested - fracking is not profitable overall.As for electric cars, the key for me is the longevity of the battery - if the battery starts degenerating after 50k miles, it's just not going to work for many, including me. Charging time also increases as batteries degenerate as there is more impedance.I want a vehicle I can keep for 10 years without needing to replace batteries at high costs.

[lw425] 20/11/2017 19:02

$99 oil should see TRIN at about 250p.

Fingers crossed!

[mark10101] 20/11/2017 18:54

Covers a lot of the things I have been banging on about. Shale oil production is a function of loose lending and the lenders are wising up to the mirage. There were signs earlier this year of lending declining to the shale producers, it will have a knock on effect to production. Also global demand has been strong for a long while. It will be interesting to watch but I think the oil market is at an inflection point where the mantra of the last few years will be shrugged off.

[shrewdmole] 20/11/2017 18:04

Very very interesting article.

What always surprises me is the naivety that electric cars are better for the environment.

The increase in them requires more power output and higher draw from power stations.

The truth will get through but only after a failed bid to get us all helping the environment that a huge percentage of the power comes from fossil fuel anyway!

The U.K. Every winter is about 1% of supply away from a blackout already.

S

[mark10101] 20/11/2017 16:36

There was a 1 UT that closed us at 18p, MM muck around in both directions it seems...

[shrewdmole] 20/11/2017 16:34

Big fella

Any ideas on the 1 share bot that's been on level 2 all day?

Sm

[the big fella] 20/11/2017 10:24

Which is why I have him filtered

[richyggg] 19/11/2017 22:18

LW425 will sell after a small rise after posting only exaggerated positives.

When there is a fall, he will be back, only posting exaggerated negatives.

This means he will buy shortly.

Rinse and repeat.

[whiskeyinthejar] 19/11/2017 22:11

Hi wingspan, can you send me your spreadsheet too please ?

[wwick] 19/11/2017 19:42

Nice find mark. So basically the IMF support T&T reform plans. Key extracts: "These steps included the introduction of … royalties on natural gas production. Directors noted the need to …..finalize reforms of the fiscal regime for oil and gas." 👍

[lw425] 19/11/2017 19:08

Thanks Mark. Looks like the SPT reform is imminent.

[mark10101] 19/11/2017 18:44

Seems the IMF have concluded their work with T&T.



“On October 23, 2017, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation [1] with Trinidad and Tobago.”

Also this seems positive.

“The government has taken steps to adjust fiscal imbalances, through efforts to reform the energy tax regime, reduce fuel subsidies, and boost non-energy revenues.”

[mark10101] 19/11/2017 17:29

I have just read an interesting article on the AIM market. It was actually written as I would have written it 2 years ago, my timing was wrong back then but AIM could be on the cusp of a lot more interest going forward. On top of a strengthing and more robust and better regulated AIM, the area of interest to me is the inheritance tax free aspect of AIM. There are signs professionals are gearing up to help clients allocate their investments into inheritance tax free AIM shares. A lot of care is still needed on AIM as I have learned the hard way.

As per our discussions recently, greatly helped by Wingspans contribution, we can see TRIN is about as robust as they come on AIM offering profits and growth prospects. Should TRIN hit the right radars there can be few shares better to use for the purpose of managing your inheritance tax situation. We could see a situation where companies like TRIN start trading at a significant premium to fundamentals rather than the discount to fair value we currently see. A bit like what land has become recently where farms can be passed down inheritance tax free, I believe this has led to land changin hands for a significant premium over the normal drivers for its price.

Another part of the perfect storm that may assist us.

[mark10101] 19/11/2017 16:24

LAW, I agree that things could be lining up to be the perfect storm for TRIN in a possivtive way. That is where the exciting valuations come from. However if oil returns to the mid 40’s and the reform does not happen I still believe we are undervalued currently. So there is pretty good downside protection with the potential for some of the more punchy valuations we have discussed should the storm gather in our favour.

[lw425] 19/11/2017 15:47

In my view we're at the same stage in the exponential growth curve as KAZ, FXPO, VED and GLEN were 18 months ago. These companies still have huge debts but the crucial factors which caused the equity to rerate was a huge rebound in the underlying traded commodity which in turn allowed the companies to invest in capex, generate additional profits and increase debt repayment.


Does this sound like a company we know?

[wingspan] 19/11/2017 15:35

I have now sent a fair few people (from both sites) my sheet. The inputs and assumptions are my own (though I have had them independently looked at). Originally, I created the sheet to help inform my investment decisions concerning TRIN. Latterly, I have added to the profitability assumptions a piece around the SPT and the payment of 2018 commitments. As some of you have observed, I have wanted to get to the bottom of these factors...they are important considerations. The sheet addressed these issues for me; and as such I have shared it. As is always the case with these things: DYOR, everything I have done is to the best of my abilities. I believe it is a good rule of thumb...I believe that 2018 could shape up to be a great year of consolidation: we move from cost control to a program of upping the BOPD, the balance sheet clears up, concerns institutional investors / retail investors may have around CLN dilution will ameliorate through the year, with a successful drilling program the average 2018 barrels should be higher than my sheets (configurable) 2900 bopd assumption ((after asset sale to Range in Dec) and drilling program in H1), possible SPT overhaul with more emphasis on gas and less on oil, some other developments on offshore side...and no doubt more given the management / board capabilities. TRIN is one to watch through 2018. Clearly the oil price is important...I see no reason that we will not move through 20 towards 25p through next year at some stage. I have accumulated shares in TRIN since I started writing on this board...my contribution here is not a ramping tool as I have not purchased any recently and I do not intend to sell for some years. Personally speaking, I am in favour of a capital raise when appropriate to push the offshore drilling and revise the reserve scenario (great if not necessary!) Good luck all and DYOR!!!

[lw425] 19/11/2017 15:30

Well we know that Bruce has been very active lately in an attempt to attract institutional buyers. Perhaps we shall now see this kick in in earnest. I've often wondered what would happen when some proper professional buying kicks in.

I suspect the institutions will want in before the SBT reform next month is announced.

Below 35p is cheap, below 25p is *extremely cheap*.

[wingspan] 19/11/2017 15:29

Concerning ramp / dermal: I am referring there to your recent comment concerning TRIN, “Charts looks like an XMAS disaster movie in the making. Looks like 12p and Lidl mince pies all round?”

Now you are talking about 33p by Christmas. Are you not happy with Lidl mince pies now and more interested in a Waitrose Turkey roast?