Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[lw425] 16/11/2017 08:47

13m profit.

PE 8 (conservative)

104M market cap (conservative)

37P (conservative)

Current PE 4 at 17p

Good grief.

[spellbrook] 16/11/2017 08:22

I thought Bruce came across superb and dealt
with the questions professionally, every time I listen to it there are a few more extras

Looks like potential £13m full year
We will see a TRIn at more and more investor events
Long time future poss dividends
Maybe a farmout of part of our prospect land
Debt to government being excellerated
Bruce wants institutions , maybe one will come on board for a price and pay towards drilling

Stellar performance imo...

Gl TRINNERS

Ps who just bought 7 shares

[wingspan] 16/11/2017 00:14

Ross...point taken. I am just used to calling it how I see it. I certainly don’t want to cause you mainstays here any offence. I find certain behaviour so pernicious that I don’t like leaving it unaddressed. W

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2017 21:42

Thanks Ross. Its not critical I think. Doesn't help us with valuations. I just thought it was interesting.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2017 20:29

The TXP presentation talks about how they book reserves in Trinidad.

They are only allowed to book reserves at the current drilling depth. So they recomplete at new depth and hey presto new reserves.

That's what I understood anyway. Ross or someone else who's listened might be able to confirm I got this right?

[fidra] 15/11/2017 20:24

no offence taken.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2017 20:17

It's cool fidron, I didn't mean to be critical.

[lw425] 15/11/2017 20:14

Another point is that TRIN have around 20 years of proven reserves BEFORE the other 20m barrels are converted from 2C to 2P reserves.

So there is decades of highly profitable production coming from TRIN.

[fidra] 15/11/2017 20:13

I wasn't ramping!;-)

Otherwise I would have said the 7-10k bopd that Bruce thinks.

I was being conservative.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2017 20:06

3,000 bopd is very conservative for next year. They should hit 3,0000 December/ January.

IIRC 3,400 was the target for 12 months after restarting workovers. ie April.

We have drilling to come and Bruce said in presentation that he saw TRIN having about another year and a half of raising production through non- drilling work.

[fidra] 15/11/2017 20:00

wingspan, cheers!

There is a lot of ifs and buts till 2020.

But given the way the company is now run,well achievable as long as the POO stays at least at $50.

[lw425] 15/11/2017 19:53

So get 1% interest a year on savings in bank account which losses value in real terms

OR

buy TRIN shares and make a 500% + return on your money.

[wingspan] 15/11/2017 19:50

right...thats quite enough posting from me!

FSA...once you have finished cutting that grass - don't smoke too much more of it...moron

[lw425] 15/11/2017 19:48

40m EBITA on a PE of 10.

400M

Mid cap status.

Over 100p a share conservative valuation.

[wingspan] 15/11/2017 19:46

Fidra...second hat tip!!

[fidra] 15/11/2017 19:38

This is now a well run company.

Looks like Bruce let slip a 13.5m profit for the year EBITA.

If oil stays at 50$ and they do 3000 bopd barrels looks like closer to 19m EBITA next year.

You then add on the further 3000 bopd barrels from drilling in 2019,plus the increase they hope to do on their wells of 500 bopd .Then things look pretty good by 2020.

Profit should reach about 40m.EBITA Assuming at least $50 oil.

[wingspan] 15/11/2017 19:26

I suspect your current views are fanciful LW...game changer yes, happier than most if the price goes there, unlikely as there is still the approx 7 mln of BIR to pay back (sorry FSA - there I am quoting that as a fact...oooops)...followed by the CLN's...now, once those clear and with a favourable drilling campaign...then we have something to talk about.

[wingspan] 15/11/2017 19:22

60 dollars is back up to 45 dollars which is not soo bad...can you believe 62.5 is back up to 50...i.e. back on track...its so stupid.

Quoting Whitman, "A SPT is payable on net revenues (e.g. post govt royalty and ORR). An investment tax credit of 20% of capex can be offset against the SPT charge for mature (>25 years) fields. Any unused credit can be carried forward one year. Marine fields (eg Trintes) can benefit from a further 20% reduction in SPT based on certain criteria. We note the govt has said it is reviewing the SPT mechanics, which could be positive for Trinity, although we do not know how any changes would look thus we do not model any potential upside at this point."


So it is a bit more complicated than my back of envelope calc.

[lw425] 15/11/2017 19:21

I suspect that when the reforms are confirmed in Dec we should see TRIN rerate to mid 30's as it will be a game changer.

As usual with AIM the mark up will be more or less instant so best build your positions now if you are intending to do so.

[mark10101] 15/11/2017 19:19

Wingspan, no worries, I kick myself for being so unaware of how punitive the T&T system was and still is, I just wish we had a broader spectrum of posters back in 2014. If we get the reform we hope for it will be a rerate moment for TRIN, if not we still have a very sound business that works.

[wingspan] 15/11/2017 19:12

I am sorry Mark...I misinterpreted your question below as being a simplistic one.