Trident Royalties Share Discussion Threads

[husbod] 02/1/2024 13:00

Shell was intended to be shedful- bloody predictive text.

[husbod] 02/1/2024 12:58

Watched a Shares mag presentation by Adam Davidson. All was very reassuring until question time when some awkward sod said he was watching Trident but needed to be persuaded to invest when he saw Davidson's salary of £650k and the fact that he only had a handful of shares. Hmmm I thought.Well that handful has now been increased by some 99k free bonus shares for a period when the share price has underperformed.So again he hasn't put his hand in his pocket and used any of that £650k to actually buy any shares.Hmmm I think again. Not exactly what I would expect of a ceo if he has faith in his company. He should set an example and buy a shell more.Bet that awkward sod hasn't bought any!

[bagpuss67] 31/12/2023 09:51

Nice to see this widely tipped and hope it plays out in 2024 snd beyond..

[pogue] 31/12/2023 09:44

Write up by Oakbloke on substack

Part of the article....

The share price has dropped a third this year on negative sentiment to Lithium. But 59% isn’t Lithium - and given that all the 41% Lithium are NON PRODUCING (yet) then the 1/3 reduction in the share price is even more insane! In fact, almost the same proportion (37%) as lithium is gold which is currently near record highs!!

Most of the gold holdings aren’t royalties but instead are offtakes. It’s worth understanding what an “offtake” is too. An offtake contract according to TRR is a contract pursuant to which the operator agrees to sell, and the purchaser agrees to buy, refined gold produced from the mine or mines over which the offtake is granted. Gold offtakes provide “royalty-like” exposure, where returns are driven by the volatility, production profile, gold price and exploration success but is insulated from capex or operating costs. The key commercial terms include those relating to the amount of gold to be purchased, the duration of the contract, and the payment terms. The purchaser has the right to purchase gold at the lowest reference price in a defined quotation period, which is typically 6-8 days. A positive margin can normally be made on the resale of the gold. The average margin is typically larger during periods of increased volatility and higher/rising gold prices.

The offtake portfolio generated US$6.1m of revenue for Trident during 2022 and is expected to grow significantly over the coming years.

For example, if you are a Gold Miner who has an offtake agreement with me. Let’s say Gold increases from $2000 to $2100 next week. The offtake gives me the right to buy 35%-100% of your gold at $2000 and sell it at today’s market rate = $2100. If you’re producing 1,000 ounces every week, and it’s a 100% offtake, I’ve just skimmed ($100x1000) so $0.1m from you….. in the space of a week. If gold drops the following week back to $2,000 I simply don’t buy any.

Conclusion:
Trident is an excellent opportunity to buy and have less risky exposure to minerals markets.

It is low risk and a great way to take advantage of net zero trends without mining risk. A great complement to the likes of Power Metal.

[zho] 30/12/2023 12:30

Trident Royalties made a loss in 2022, but it is expected to report a pre-tax profit of $8.4 million in 2023. More importantly, $16 million in cash is likely to be generated, helped by a reduction in receivables. In 2024, $11.5 million could be generated, although cash generated prior to working capital movements should double. Cash generation should really take off in 2025.

The share price has hardly changed from the start of 2021, yet the company is on the verge of being highly cash generative. This is an excellent opportunity to buy and have less risky exposure to minerals markets.

[robertspc1] 21/12/2023 16:07

Agree that the bearish lithium sentiment has taken its toll here. Not much management can do about that so they are focussing on what they can control. Long term I'm sure dividends will flow so will add on weakness

[1knocker] 21/12/2023 12:47

Lithium is a commodity I have many times been tempted by but (very fortunately so far) I have not taken any position in it or in any lithium producer. The price falls this year would lead one to suppose that it is virtually unsaleable at any price! One of the attractions of TRR for me was that the high power management here should know a lot more about it than i do, and will make a bit of money out of it. Time will tell.

To my mind, the 'coming of age' for TRR will be when it starts to pay a dividend. You can come up with just about any valuation for a royalty company's assets, so investors will (rightly in my view) always favour those royalty companies which pay an income, and especially those with a track record of increasing that income over time.

[riverman77] 21/12/2023 09:49

Yes the gold assets are the main attraction, although find it very hard to work out what these are actually worth - there are a couple of broker notes but they seem to use different methodologies and come up with different valuations.

[donald pond] 21/12/2023 09:39

This has really been the most frustrating hold. For all the excellent presentations the focus on lithium and the uncertainty over Sonora seems to have become an albatross. The gold and silver assets must be worth much more than the initial price though.

[zho] 08/12/2023 11:10

Decent presentation by Adam D on Tuesday:

[shanklin] 08/12/2023 07:09

Not great for the Native American Tribes but not unhelpful for TRR...

[trader465] 04/12/2023 17:11

…day to day commodity movement are irrelevant for a small early stage royalty company. What is relevant is the 6-12 month average, which is usually far more of a move than a 1-2% “ballisticR21;/normal intraday move.

[888icb] 04/12/2023 16:46

This is how Kitco News reported last nights SPIKE:
AM-PM Roundup
Gold price powers to record high, backs off
Jim Wyckoff
Jim Wyckoff
Monday December 04, 2023 08:04
Kitco NewsShare this article:


(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Monday, after gold spiked to a new record high of $2,152.30, basis February Comex futures, while silver hit a seven-month high overnight. The two precious metals are now pausing after recent solid gains, which is not surprising. The shorter-term futures traders are taking some profits. February gold was last down $1.70 at $2,088.00. March silver was last down $0.302 at $25.56.

Gold and silver remain supported by bullish technical charts, a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, falling bond yields, some safe-haven demand, and notions the major central banks of the world will back off on their interest-rate-increase cycles”
We can all form our own view on whether to take note of how the leading global gold reporting news agency describes last nights SPIKE in gold POWER TOA RECORD HIGH, or some ignorant and offence Trader for whom the filter button beckons.

[trader465] 04/12/2023 16:35

Gold is down 2.6% now, is a “ballisticR21; fall, capitulation, or a “spike” down? No it’s just a normal daily move within the 14 day average true range.

[trader465] 04/12/2023 16:26

“Spike”? “BallisticR21;? Have you never seen gold move 2-3% before? It’s a regular occurrence, 2-3% up days and 2-3% down days are not “spikes” or “ballisticR21; moves they are frequent and normal daily movements, sounds like you wet your pants on a 2-3% move, go back to sleep ffs!

[888icb] 04/12/2023 15:42

I am not concerned. I am just looking for pointers that the recent upwards movement in gold to its all time highs is going to be sustained and that in the coming years we are likely to see gold prices continue to reach new highs. A spike like last nights simply indicates the prices people are prepared to pay.

[trader465] 04/12/2023 15:03

Gold dropping like a stone now, why would you be concerned with day to day gold movements in an early stage long-term royalty company?

[888icb] 04/12/2023 00:25

Gold has just opened in Asian markets and has gone ballistic Up 50 points at 2121. Let’s see how it’s doing when the UK market opens but it looks as if TRR should have a good start to the month with all its gold royalties.

[qs99] 30/11/2023 13:48

Nice CFO purchase DYO

[nickelmer] 30/11/2023 11:03

Patience is that is required, on a 3-5 year view I think shareholders at this level will be well rewarded

[the deacon] 30/11/2023 09:08

Thanks for the feedback Pogue

[pogue] 30/11/2023 08:41

The presentation last night didnt have anything really new however the fall in the share price would appear to be over, at least the directors think so. The fall is attributed to funds selling down as they get redemptions which was a thing this year. Having spoken to the fund managers the directors have been told that funds are now taking more in than out so the fund managers selling should have stopped. The purchase this morning was the first chance they had as they were in a closed period until the funding RNS from yesterday.
Operationally everything is moving forward and this is a great time to write royalties as interest rates are high so mine funding is difficult, companies that have in the past said they would never take a royalty from them are suddenly talking to them. I hope some new deals will appear soon.
Funding obviously is fine for the moment however dilution at a later date is a possibility when funds run out. Any fund raise would however be value accretive as they would be immediately buying an income stream with the cash not spending it on directors wages. If however interest rates fall as expected in the US next year then of course bank funding is back as an option, the current new deal is about as low as a royalty company can get just now.
I would expect the share price to be a lot higher in due course as it is back to levels not seen for a couple of years and there has been many deals signed since then plus Thacker Pass is now being built so on a run down to 2026 when money will start coming in from there.
Buy more and wait here is my tactic.
DYOR, this post is not financial advice.

[nickelmer] 30/11/2023 07:09

Good to see management buying decent amounts of shares, seems to back up the premise that this stock has been significantly oversold

[pogue] 29/11/2023 08:30

Tonight is the AJ Bell presentation in London it's full so too late to register. If anyone has any burning questions they want asked let me know and I will ask face to face after or at end of presentation if I get a chance to get the mike.