Trident Royalties Share Discussion Threads

[the deacon] 09/11/2023 12:25

Yes DDR, Adam mentioned that New World needed cash to push them through the PFS and into a full feasibility study. He also mentioned that as it was a primary royalty, Trident had full access to the data room and inputs going into the PFS. Interestingly, RCF (Mining private equity) recently invested $5m into New World. RCF being the previous employer of three of our management team - including Adam. https://smallcaps.com.au/new-world-resources-secures-investment-rcf-management/

[robertspc1] 09/11/2023 12:12

Good comments on here thanks. Guess we can ask these questions on the webinar on Tuesday

[dead duck resources] 09/11/2023 10:51

Thanks for the correction swanvesta

Original terms from 2020;
New World paid $50k to enter into the option.
To acquire 100% ownership, an initial price of $1m cash, plus $1m cash on production


The initial sum paid was $1.32m including fees. There are also some other small cash payments due to the vendor ($75k/yr until production then $100k/yr over first 10 yrs)

Staged payments always preferable whereas TRR is paying its cash outlay upfront here
presumably because New World needs the funds.

[swanvesta] 09/11/2023 10:20

DDR, that initial purchase in Jan 2020 was for an option, on a mine that had received no attention for nearly 50 years. The terms were a little better than you suggest, though not much. Of course New World took on all future costs and dilution, which TRR won't suffer. Just adding that for balance.

The way I value a royalty is on expected DCF, appropriately risked for project delivery. It's hard to figure out that risk though! How do others do this? Equity value seems barely relevant as it doesn't account for costs or future dilution.

[swanvesta] 09/11/2023 09:39

robertspc1, are we sure management are capable of reliably identifying value? Thacker Pass was a good one but I'd like to know what's going on with the much larger gold offtakes investment. Because at current progress it looks like they overpaid by 100% or more.

[swanvesta] 09/11/2023 09:33

DDR,

- Antler has more copper by value than zinc. Value is what we should be concerned with?
- TRR suggests ramp-up in 26/27. I don't see how anyone could take that as near term.
- Permitting simplified by being on private property.
- I agree doesn't look cheap on scoping study numbers. They seem confident production numbers will improve in upcoming studies. Cost increases won't matter as long as project goes ahead.

Do you have an explanation for the gold offtake revenue?

[dead duck resources] 09/11/2023 09:15

The ASX company acquired 100% for A$1.8m (plus annual license fees)


2 years on with only scoping study complete TRR pays 6 times that for c.1% royalty? Almost like they've paid a post-DFS fully-permitted pre-financing valuation.

[robertspc1] 09/11/2023 08:58

TRR management have a lot more access to the project detail than is public so I'm sure they have PFS type info already

[robertspc1] 09/11/2023 08:51

Ilika also working on SSBs. They seem to be saying they will still require similar amount of lithium

[the deacon] 09/11/2023 08:40

Yes DDR, PFS is ongoing. The scoping study looks pretty solid, but we know how much things can vary as bankable studies progress.

[dead duck resources] 09/11/2023 08:29

Antler Mine - DDR summary

- 1940s VMS mine, primarily zinc (TRR say a 'copper-rich' royalty as sounds more exciting)

- Described by its management as a medium-term project (Trident house broker: near-term)

- no mine permitting yet

- no DFS or even Prefeasibility yet

- Top dollar paid (c.£6M for 0.9%)

[sev22] 09/11/2023 07:48

Trident's Antler deal offers appealing commodity mix, potential for near-term return - Stifel.

[nickelmer] 09/11/2023 07:19

This stock just requires patience, they trade close to NAV and with further acquisitions and potential production upgrades, even before productions actually start to deliver solid cashflow, NAV could well grow further. Further value increase will come as the business grows to the larger size and better valuation multiples that larger royalty businesses enjoy, as highlighted many times by the management. Orion Mining have sold down their stake and likely helped the fall but these are at this level, IMHO very good value on a 3-5 year investment view. DYOR

[the deacon] 09/11/2023 06:34

TRR's Red Cloud Presentationhttps://youtu.be/zY4REd8CMMU?si=WXN_QjP5JB9x1shS

[swanvesta] 09/11/2023 00:43

What's going on with the gold offtakes? They seem to be badly underperforming the projections given at the time of purchase. Revenue in 2022 was less than half ($6.07m vs $13.3m), and we don't seem at all close to the $14.3m projected for this year?

[the deacon] 08/11/2023 21:40

More interesting is the effort that almost all battery manufacturers are making to try and eliminate graphite from the anode. As far as lithium is concerned, I think many only think about EV's when considering the energy transition. There's so many applications where lithium will likely remain within the dominant battery chemistry - such as energy storage, power tools, electronic devices etc. Many ithium based alternatives to a variety of applications have been suggested or bandied around, but almost all remain at not much further than the lab stage, and certainly not at widespread public use like you'll find with BESS, Lithium Ion, LFP, NMC etc etc. In my opinion, lithium might not be the solution that powers transport and applications in the future, but I suspect for the vast majority of us here it'll be the dominant chemistry that we use in our lifetime.

[zho] 08/11/2023 17:31

Toyota claims that a breakthrough in battery technology means that they are roughly 4 years away from mass-production of solid state batteries with a range of 1,200km and a charging time of just 10 minutes.

According to an FT article, solid state batteries “replace a liquid electrolyte with a solid one and use lithium metal at the anode instead of graphite, the current standard in lithium-ion batteries.”

Given TRR's significant exposure to lithium, If Toyota do manage to get their batteries to market would this be positive, negative, or neither for the price of lithium?

[riverman77] 08/11/2023 14:24

Couple of useful broker notes on Research Tree today although a bit of confusion as to how much the gold offtakes are actually worth (my main reason for holding these). Liberum have 28p, but Tamesis have 18p (with a 5% discount rate, which seems very low considering you can almost get 5% on treasury bonds). I'm inclined to use the Tamesis number, although would use at least a 10% discount rate which would reduce it a fair bit, probably to around 13-14p.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 08/11/2023 09:04

#The Deacon, I like Adams openness, he is keen to offer clarity and information instead of holding his cards tight, nice PF addition there..

5 deals inside 2023 indicates the tide has turned, as debt funding tightens with rates/risk, let us see if ECOR add any time soon with just 1 on the board, see if they are looking at SAND..

[dead duck resources] 08/11/2023 08:32

The market seems to like it, but at the depth they're looking at, the Antler mine may have more toxicity than a DDR post.

[sev22] 08/11/2023 08:25

Trident Royalties adds to portfolio with acquisition of a royalty on the Antler Copper Project.

[the deacon] 08/11/2023 08:04

Copper in the US. A smart acquisition imv. Happy to collect good quality, strategic copper assets

[the deacon] 08/11/2023 07:56

Adam on today's acquisition newshttps://youtu.be/j5A6xpou3EY?si=R1H8Unc493n5aE8r

[ccpag] 08/11/2023 07:54

Arizona copper

[ccpag] 08/11/2023 07:52

New copper royalty for TRR this morning. 22pc IRR according to Tamesis. Mgt continue to deliver accretive deals. Ronseal.