Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 21/2/2012 22:42

Good spot GHF, I did read the trading update from TSW this morning but hadn't thought about the Caterpillar connection.

Like many manufacturing companies TSW reported a continuation of the last strong quarter into 2012. Surprised they only increased 2.5%.

Confident of a positive read across to TCN.

ic2...

[tom111] 21/2/2012 20:32

Ive been stuck with tcn for three years and now i think i can see light at the end of the tunnel

[cfro] 21/2/2012 18:19

Aaah, once again GFH you are on the ball. I dont follow Titon e. so didnt know about that.

I've got a very good feeling here.

[glasshalfull] 21/2/2012 17:28

Perhaps a read across from Titan Europe's t/s today? They also count Caterpillar as a major customer.



"...anticipated that Group Trading profit is likely to be comfortably ahead of market expectations."


Regards,
GHF

[cfro] 21/2/2012 16:14

Cor blimey, this lady's looking hot today! ;-)

Wouldnt be surprised if there wasnt a trading update before April 3rd. I reckon its the aerospace division thats making the diffence.

[interceptor2] 21/2/2012 15:24

I did enquire about a February trading update this year, and was referred to the website calender which shows the 3rd April as the scheduled date.

But when I thought about it, they wouldn't really be able to tell me if they intend to issue an unscheduled update, because this would give me information that there is a material difference in trading.

Looking strong today and could challenged the 38p resistance soon.

ic2...

[alter ego] 21/2/2012 15:08

It will be good news if there is a trading update soon as the one in Feb last year arose because of the need to alert the market to a material improvement in trading. The company web site gives 3 April as the date for this years trading update ( and this was also around the timing of the main trading update last year) so if we don't get one soon it will be because it's not going to be such a dramatic improvement.

[cornishman33] 21/2/2012 14:53

Last year there was a trading statement on the 18th Feb. With a nice rise today I am thinking another might be coming soon.

[glasshalfull] 10/2/2012 14:37

Thanks for posts ic2...food for thought as you say.

Regards
GHF

[interceptor2] 10/2/2012 13:16

If we see a 25% increase in revenue to 27.2m, and use a net margin figure of 4.5%, which are both achievable figures imv. The EPS works out at 3.8p.

To make the 3.2p forcast figure on a 25% increase in revenue, would need to be worked out on a net marin figure of 3.9%.

Food for thought.......

ic2...

[cfro] 10/2/2012 10:04

Good posts guys.

As IC2 has stated in previous posts, we should see quite a big margin improvement in the next set of results from the aerospace division that is turning around.

Brokers are forecasting eps of 3.2p for this year and 3.6p for next but i think if we see these margins improve then next years forecasts will alomost cetainly prove to be too low imo.

[interceptor2] 09/2/2012 20:58

PSR.......2004...2005...5006...2007...2008...2009...2010...2011
High......0.85...0.90...1.40...1.25...0.55...0.23...0.37...0.56
Low.......0.35...0.50...0.80...0.61...0.24...0.08...0.15...0.25

Net Margin.n/a...n/a....9.6%...5.2%...3.8%...2.6%...1.0%...3.2%
EPS........n/a...n/a...2.06....1.88...2.50...1.77...0.45...2.14
Price
High......14p....18p....28p....45p....37p....16p....17p....38p
Low.......7p.....10p....16p....22p....16p....6p.....7p.....17p

Revenue...5.55m..6.07m..6.20m..11.15m.20.8m..22.3m..15.03m..21.70m

At todays 30.50p the PSR = 0.45, using 2011 revenue at £21.1m appx.

Looking back at the historic PSR figures and net magin figures, a PSR of 1 would give a price of 66.5p, and this is using 2011 revenue figures. So on likely 2012 revenue figures, a PSR of only 0.75 might be all thats needed to give the same share price

Worth noting that interim net margins were 4.04%(key customer changing its payment terms by an average of two weeks), so TCN are still improving net margins at a good rate.

ic2...

[interceptor2] 09/2/2012 20:25

Agree GHF, TCN look good value at this level, I think you timed your top up very well on the last dip.

And we had some stronger than expected UK manufacturing data for December out today, which together with the Caterpillar results bode well. We did briefly reach 38p last year, so 40p is a realistic target price, perhaps after an ahead statement.

FWIW my initial target is 51p, with a longer term target of 66.5p. These were based on some PSR calculations I made last year, and looking at historic performance in previous cycles.

Will dig up the figures and post here later. Might be of some interest.

ic2...

[glasshalfull] 09/2/2012 17:31

Reiteration of Buy recommendation for TCN in today's Shares Mag.

Rationale is the excellent Caterpillar results bodes well for positive end markets.

FWIW, I tested the market with a dummy trade on 25k and was offered mid today. Obviously shares in short supply.

With EPS of 3.2p pencilled in & prospect of further upgrades I firmly believe they are undervalued at 30.5p mid. Experienced management team, margin improvement, net cash positive and good earnings record suggests plenty more mileage and the brokers price target of 40p does look achievable to me.

Regards
GHF

[cfro] 03/2/2012 18:21

Very decent rise today and should imo be much more to come over the next few days in the lead up to the Trading update.

[thamestrader] 03/2/2012 13:22

Managed to get 8000 this morning, but they had to offer an extra ha'penny of my hard earned wonga to get 'em.

[shauney2] 03/2/2012 11:47

Yes indeed...
Hard to buy online at the moment.

[cfro] 03/2/2012 11:44

What a lovely move up. :-)

[glasshalfull] 03/2/2012 08:57

Looks like a delayed reaction to the excellent Caterpillar news, and like you say, possibly a bullish update round the corner.

Regards
GHF

[interceptor2] 03/2/2012 08:11

Certainly some healthy buying yesterday, perhaps investors buying ahead of the next trading update, which I have down for Friday 17th February, last year it was Friday 18th February.

I remember last years updates in February and April were both rather bullish, and wouldn't be surprised to see another strong statement.

ic2...

[cfro] 02/2/2012 18:26

Lovely move up and a clear breakout of the recent downtrend. Very bullish imo.

Dont forget we also have a small divi coming our way on Feb 17th i think.

[cfro] 31/1/2012 18:19

Coming back to life?......certainly a nice move up.

[choppa] 31/1/2012 18:00

Looking a bit firmer of late which is nice.

[saucepan] 27/1/2012 09:08

Excellent research, IC2, on the Caterpillar connection.

[interceptor2] 27/1/2012 09:04

Another snippet from the CAT results, which underlines how strong trading has been.

"The 2011 increase in sales and revenues was the largest percentage increase in any year since 1947, and much of it was driven by demand for Caterpillar products and services outside of the United States."