Tricorn Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 27/1/2012 08:55

I spotted the Caterpilla results too and agree i thought they were very good. Clearly TCN will majorly benefit. Even tho there is a slight tick up this morning, the market has yet to catch on imo....

[glasshalfull] 27/1/2012 08:35

Thanks for flagging the Caterpillar update ic2.

Indeed it's excellent news.

TCN's Energy Division (MTC) and Transportation (MaxPower Automotive) list CAT as a major customer and I too believe they are TCN's largest overall. From another source;



Caterpillar Reports Record Sales and Profit for the Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2011; 2011 Profit up 83 Percent from 2010....and importantly...Momentum Carries into 2012 with Sales and Revenues Outlook Raised to $68 to $72 Billion.

Augurs well.

Regards,
GHF

[interceptor2] 27/1/2012 07:59

I did avail myself to some yesterday, and noticed I wasn't alone after the Caterpiller results. Below is just a small extract which should bode very well for their suppliers including TCN.

ic2...

"Given the sizable increase in demand in 2011, we stretched our factories and our suppliers to produce more. The results were outstanding, and we were able to significantly increase production and improve our on-time delivery performance. We thank our suppliers for a remarkable year in support of our business"

[interceptor2] 26/1/2012 16:36

I believe I read recently that Caterpiller are Tricorn's largest customer, in which case Q4 results from CAT today shouldn't do Tricorn any harm at all.



ic2...

[saucepan] 22/1/2012 17:45

Cambium: off topic: I noticed today that, back in March 2011, you opened the only thread on Mood Media (MM.). The thread has subsequently never attracted any posts! Do you still follow that stock and do you have a view?

MM. came up on one of my ShareScope stock screening filters today, but I cannot find out much info outside of ShareScope.

It is flagged as 'Canada's fastest growing company'. It has a Rolling P/E 2 of just 4.7: which seems incongruous for such a high growth stock. However, a director regularly off-loads his shares, so that is obviously not so good.

Reply on the MM. thread if you prefer. Thanks in anticipation.

[cambium] 22/1/2012 17:28

Nice cash generation for a 8 million market cap.

[interceptor2] 22/1/2012 16:55

Electronica, I have searched for who might be the supplier, but RMDG Aerpspace are such a small player that they are not even listed as main engine componant suppliers. So with revenue of about 5.0m it would seem unlikely to me.

When I first came across TCN in February 2011, I made some notes on various valuation and ratios at that time. Below is a comparison with todays ratios. Looks even better value now imo.

Feb 2011

Price = 20p
PE = 38
PER = 11,7
PER = 8.3
Net Debt 0.551m
Mkt Cap = 6,4m
Yield = no
Net Margin = 2.4%

Jan 2012

Price =25.5p
PE = 10
PER = 7.9
PER = 6.9
Net Cash =0.072m
Mkt Cap = 8.16m
Yield = Yes
Net Margin = 4.04m

ic2...

[electronica] 19/1/2012 08:49

The failure problems with the RR engines on the Quantas Airbus A380 last year were today revealed as a metal fatigue failure on an oil pipe inside the engine.

Does anyone know if this oil pipe was supplied by one of Tricorn's pipe supply units?

[wowy] 18/1/2012 19:03

I have been invested in Tricorn since 2002 and have seen the previous peaks come and go. I have accumulated a reasonable holding of 150K shares, I remain very positive about this company and the realisation of the 80p value I have always felt was achievable. Whilst I will continue to accumulate my only reluctance now remains the same as it was in the beginning this share is so illiquid any significant holding would be costly to exit.

[simon gordon] 18/1/2012 18:28

Cheers GHF and Cfro :-)

It was the mighty Zulu thread that brought me here:

[cfro] 18/1/2012 18:23

Good to see you here Simon G and thanks for that excellent article Glasshalfull.

No reason imo why we shouldnt see a substantial rise from here. They have already said that trading remains strong and all divisions are producing profits. We should also see margins improvements too. Likely to be an earnings enhancing acqustion too. House broker Arbuthnot are forecasting EPS for YE 2013 3.7p which puts the shares on a forward PE of less than 7 and have a target price of 40p.

[stegrego] 18/1/2012 12:32

Im still holding mine here from 20p ish last year. Looks cheap again to me, but no funds to add unfortunately.

[glasshalfull] 18/1/2012 12:19

...which is (hopefully) acting as a trampoline ;-)

Cheers Simon.

Kind regards
GHF

[simon gordon] 18/1/2012 12:08

Currently nestled in on Weekly cloud support:

[glasshalfull] 18/1/2012 11:52

Arbuthnot notes the recent share price weakness....and this is what they have to say:-

In our view, there is a good buying opportunity in Tricorn following weakness in the share price yesterday.

The company has delivered a number of profit upgrades over the last 18 months and our research report following the interims "Strong first half should underpin full-year numbers" on 5 December 2011 indicated that we believe that this momentum is still intact. Since then Tricorn's largest customer, Caterpillar, reaffirmed on 14 December 2011 that it expects to deliver 10-20% sales growth in calendar year 2012. This guidance will be updated next week (26 January) when Caterpillar reports its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2011.

Tricorn has a management team (predominantly ex-IMI) capable of running a much larger entity in our view. We would expect the decent organic growth we have forecast to be boosted by an earning enhancing acquisition in due course. A progressive dividend policy was introduced with the final results last year and the balance sheet now has net cash despite the aggressive capital expenditure programme for FY2012.

At the current share price Tricorn is substantially undervalued in our view and we are more than happy to reiterate our 40p target price and Strong Buy recommendation.


---

Hope this assists assuage any fears.

Regards,
GHF

[electronica] 17/1/2012 19:44

cfro

These institutions often don't have a lot of choice. If the retail punter holding a managed fund asks to redeem a Fund Manager has to sell stock to get the liquidity to pay panicky Uncle Walter. Put the blame on Peston & the BBC - never knowingly underbid in their attemps to spread Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt among the fund holding middle classes.

[cfro] 17/1/2012 18:18

Got another batch this arfo. Lots of volume today, hopefully this is the bottom. Getting a bit fed up with these 'distressed sellers' that are croping up all over.

Like you say, you cant get too over commited. Best to keep some powder dry and of course have a little cash left aside for living expenses.

[interceptor2] 17/1/2012 14:49

I did top up here at last months interim announcement, I had planned to await the next trading update next month before buying again.

The trouble is I must be a bit carefull, there are so many opportunities about this month. I have topped up with GAH and DSN as well as a maiden position in SAL plus buying back into IDG today. But I admit the current share price here is tempting.

I always find it strange when a seller takes a price way below the bid, when they could feed stock into the market in 10k chunks and attain a price within the spread to start with.

And welcome GHF always good to see you holding.

ic2..

[cfro] 17/1/2012 13:48

Great to see you here GHF.

'tis frustrating IC2. It gotta be a forced seller like you say, more likely Hargreave Hale. They have been selling recently and hold a fair few. These insti's really annoy me.

Im looking for a top-up here tho, just a matter of pulling the trigger. How about you IC2?

[glasshalfull] 17/1/2012 13:44

I've taken a few. Excellent value at this price IMHO.

Regards
GHF

[interceptor2] 17/1/2012 12:38

That's a pain. Looks like a forced seller @ 21p with the spread was 25p - 26p, second one I have seen this week after SAG yesterday which is bouncing back today with buyers appearing.

Same here?

ic2...

[shauney2] 08/12/2011 14:58

Seems to be hard to get hold of any size at the moment.Surprised the 50k yesterday didn't move the price.

[interceptor2] 08/12/2011 13:12

Someone is keen with 30k @ 29p a penny over the ask.

ic2...

[cfro] 05/12/2011 18:15

Cant see how two weeks really makes that much diffence.

Correct me if im wrong but i read it as the customer actually paying up two weeks earlier, which has to be positive anyway isnt it??

[interceptor2] 05/12/2011 15:46

Hard to know how much a change of two weeks would make to the Trade and Receivable figure. It did increase 24%, but revenue was much higher which would account for part of the increase.

It might partly explains why my own forecasts were exceeded by 14% PBT and 11% EPS.

The following sentence of the two week change, went on to say that they are sourcing more stock from China, but have to pay for the goods earlier with margin improvement to follow later.

Overall it looks positive to the full year.

ic2...