Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 25/8/2009 12:35

GHF, let's talk re RGO on the RGO board.

[investinggarden] 25/8/2009 10:53

Buy recommendation from Growth Company Investor

[hyden] 23/8/2009 13:16

Penpont - thanks for the link. Useful note and worthwhile downloading. :-)

WJ - It is exactly as Glass said - I was referring to the 140p price target.

Glass, thank you for responding on my behalf. I share your sentiment in the main but I do feel that a modest re-rating is due in the short term. Sector peers of a similar mkt cap are trading around 6 times which would give TRB a price between 89p (6x 12/09 figues) and 97p (6.5x) using the lower Collins Stewart forecasts which I'm fairly comfortable with given 83% of revenues committed to date and the £6m in cost savings.

[wjccghcc] 23/8/2009 11:14

Hyden, are you sure? I have Collins Stewart forecasting 14.9p and Shore Capital forecasting 15.0p. Puts them on a PE of 5.5.

[penpont] 22/8/2009 23:36

Positive note from Edison:

[hyden] 19/8/2009 19:28

I noticed that too Aishah. But the target price puts the shares on a forward PE of 10 based upon Collins Stewart and Shore Capital forecasts. A bit rich given the current sentiment imo.

Having said that, I do think that the share price will edge closer to £1.00 mark over the coming days and so I'm happy to continue holding. :-)

[aishah] 19/8/2009 11:10

Broker: RBS
Company: Tribal Group

Recommendation:
Retain Buy price target 140p

[she-ra] 18/8/2009 19:05

No one likes it went a companies fortunes arein the hands of the electorate.I think i'll wait to see what happens.

[its the oxman] 18/8/2009 08:35

ok results - and no profit warning - but clearly pressures remain into next election period which i think will prevent any real outperformance - cheap though so if it dips back toward 70p i may be tempted.

[ards] 18/8/2009 08:12

increase in divi nice. however spread dreadful. looks like not much action today. one to tuck away. saw on bloomberg that pension funds still sitting on hands so market driven by hedge funds and players who dont seem interested in trb at minute. wrong sector.

[nilip] 18/8/2009 07:57

Results much better than I expected.

Looks like we're likely to see a decent rise in the share price going forward, especially from these lows.

[ards] 18/8/2009 07:37

company still to meet expectations and confident. no profit warning. looks positive to me.

[the big fella] 17/8/2009 20:36

I bought a few following the post on CR's thread the other day. Looks overlooked and decent value .

[mick33] 17/8/2009 10:19

and its up and away she goes......

[mick33] 17/8/2009 09:43

Wonder whats brewing here ,having had hardly any meaningfull volume for months we are now seeing regular large buys day after day..

[glasshalfull] 14/8/2009 09:59

Sorry should have posted a link to PP's post which drew my attention to TRB
PP - Hope you don't mind me reproducing.



paulypilot - 13 Aug'09 - 15:56 - 27406 of 27500


Hi,

OK, my turn to ramp something!! ;-)

Take a look at Tribal (TRB) )disclosure- I have a smallish long position in it). They are an outsourcing consultants business, with an emphasis on public sector from what I can gather (Education).

73p * 90.77m shares in issue = approx. £66m mkt cap

Shares are very close to 12-month low, and trade on a forward PER of only 4.4
Divi yield is very strong, at forecast 6.8
Balance sheet stuffed full of intangibles (grown by acquisition), but doesn't matter because there's little debt.

Consistently profitable, in 2008 they did £234m turnover & £19m adjusted operating profit. So looks extremely cheap against historic numbers, presumably because the market is factoring in a decline in earnings as Govt spending is reduced in the coming years. But a PER of 4!! That is over-doing the pessimism in my view.

Also, bear in mind that all the other cyclical consultancy stocks (WSP, Scott Wilson, Hyder, etc) have been doing great lately, up strongly. Whereas Tribal has been overlooked.

Interestingly, today is the first time in ages that there has been any decent volume, and the price is firming, so I think this could be a good entry point.

On 16 July 2009 they put out an in-line trading statement for 2009.

Regards,
Paul.

[glasshalfull] 14/8/2009 09:58

I've bought in this morning following a "ramp"....sorry....fundamental analysis by paulypilot over on CR's thread :-0)

Researched last night and agree with PP's assessment that TRB has been overlooked...I certainly hadn't stumbled across the company before.

At a glance Pros

* Cash conversion strong
* Reduction in operating costs - annualised cost savings expected to be £6m+
* Trading in line
* Good level of contract wins -new business activity good - particulary education and health
* International business developing well - Contracts in Australis, New Zealand, Philippines, Oman and Abu Dhabi mentioned in recent statements
* Low gearing
* Committed income £210m as 13/5/09 AGM statement (up from £139m 01/01/09)
* Low PER
* Decent D/V yield - I'll post link to PP's post.....

At a glance Cons

* Increased competitive pressures in consulting
* Tightening in Govt spending - Softer trading in further education education
* 2nd half weighting - not in itself bad but potential for disappointment I'd say

Enough from me at the moment.
I've taken a nibble.

Interims announced on Tuesday (18th Aug)

Regards,
GHF


EDIT


Tribal provides a range of consultancy, support and delivery services focused on improving the delivery of public services in the UK and internationally. Our core markets are in education, health, housing and regeneration, central government and local government. Tribal employs over 2,300 staff.

[she-ra] 11/8/2009 23:41

How a set of results affects a share is not just based on the performance during a certain period (it's historic as it looks at the past) but is to some good measure influenced by the outlook for a company.Watching and reading the news I would say for companies that operate in the public sector then there is consensus amongst commentators and politicians alike that there are going to be significant cuts.

I just dont see how the outlook isnt going to be very bleak for Tribal especially when 92% of revenues were generated from the public sector in 2008 and when its accepted but not publically acknowledged by politicians that there are even going to have to be cuts in education spending.

[ards] 11/8/2009 22:38

not far off lows earlier this year at 66; trb helps efficiencies in nhs so should be good for business: expect a short attack on results then bounce: think weakness due to market concern on public sector cut backs, dreadful chart and bailing out of institutions e:g caledonian

however hermes has upped stake:

should be a tasty private equity morsel at sometime in future given strong operating cash and low sp

[chillwill] 11/8/2009 15:23

Does seem cheap, NAV is £195m (including intangibles, which is a decent proportion, but I guess that has value of contracts included?) - MCAP currently around £66m yielding 6% if divi maintained.

I took a v.small position to build on if the chart turns around, but stop loss not too far away, not going to hang onto these for long if results are anything less than neutral.

[simon gordon] 11/8/2009 11:22

Edison forecast - 16/7/09:

12/09
T/O - 253m
PBT - 21.5m
EPS - 15.4p
DPS - 4.6p
Net Debt - c.20m

P/E @ 74p = 4.8x
Yield @ 74p = 6.2%

Unless TRB have a horrific profit warning is there much more downside in the equity?

If they reassure a rating of 6x would take the share to 92p. At this multiple it would still be cheap relative to peers. Sentiment is uber negative with the anticipated public sector cutbacks in 2010. If the company is quality it should be able to navigate the turmoil.

There could be 25%+ upside or 15% downside in the equity.