Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[she-ra] 11/8/2009 22:41

How a set of results affects a share is not just based on the performance during a certain period (it's historic as it looks at the past) but is to some good measure influenced by the outlook for a company.Watching and reading the news I would say for companies that operate in the public sector then there is consensus amongst commentators and politicians alike that there are going to be significant cuts.

I just dont see how the outlook isnt going to be very bleak for Tribal especially when 92% of revenues were generated from the public sector in 2008 and when its accepted but not publically acknowledged by politicians that there are even going to have to be cuts in education spending.

[ards] 11/8/2009 21:38

not far off lows earlier this year at 66; trb helps efficiencies in nhs so should be good for business: expect a short attack on results then bounce: think weakness due to market concern on public sector cut backs, dreadful chart and bailing out of institutions e:g caledonian

however hermes has upped stake:

should be a tasty private equity morsel at sometime in future given strong operating cash and low sp

[chillwill] 11/8/2009 14:23

Does seem cheap, NAV is £195m (including intangibles, which is a decent proportion, but I guess that has value of contracts included?) - MCAP currently around £66m yielding 6% if divi maintained.

I took a v.small position to build on if the chart turns around, but stop loss not too far away, not going to hang onto these for long if results are anything less than neutral.

[simon gordon] 11/8/2009 10:22

Edison forecast - 16/7/09:

12/09
T/O - 253m
PBT - 21.5m
EPS - 15.4p
DPS - 4.6p
Net Debt - c.20m

P/E @ 74p = 4.8x
Yield @ 74p = 6.2%

Unless TRB have a horrific profit warning is there much more downside in the equity?

If they reassure a rating of 6x would take the share to 92p. At this multiple it would still be cheap relative to peers. Sentiment is uber negative with the anticipated public sector cutbacks in 2010. If the company is quality it should be able to navigate the turmoil.

There could be 25%+ upside or 15% downside in the equity.

[ards] 07/8/2009 10:57

price has profit warning baked in. could be possible as rns hedged bets but still looks undervalued

[qs9] 07/8/2009 06:47

I am a fan generally but the H2 weighting statement made me worried that they were hedging their bets on a better H2 to deliver.....so the risks moved North and I moved out! Hope I am wrong and will get a chance to get in again on the run up to next RNS. DYOR/IMO etc

[ards] 06/8/2009 21:42

serious money not interested in small out of favour sectors which appear to have limited growth potential

remember that a lot of funds lost their shirts and I dont think a lot of this money will be back anytime soon. still think this is undervalued stock but timescale 6-12 months

patience is virtue:

[smokyjoe] 06/8/2009 16:38

markirv, yes i've got the interims as being on the 18th August too. Cant quite get my head around why noone seems to like this company at the moment, perhaps these figures will reverse the share price , i certainly hope so.

[its the oxman] 04/8/2009 10:59

decent yield now and looking cheap but not sure what will get it racing again so staying on the sidelines till next results - think market is always wary of their talk re 2nd half bias and possible downgrades

[ards] 24/7/2009 10:10

main concern is that the public sector services will cut back on outsourcing or developments. I think opposite will happen. i think it is a sector issue, just out of favour at minute. i also think that city dont fully trust management given profit warnings a few years ago. I think it is a good time to buy myself and have been doing so.

[ards] 20/7/2009 07:26

Detailed Broker Forecasts 2009 2010
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p)
Collins Stewart 17-07-09 BUY 14.90 15.80
Edison Investmen... 18-03-09 None 21.50 15.40 4.60 23.10 16.30 5.00
Brewin Dolphin I... 27-04-09 BUY 22.00 15.50 4.60 24.00 16.50 4.90
ABN AMRO 30-03-09 BUY 22.27 15.56 4.60 24.13 16.59 5.00
Fairfax IS 09-02-09 BUY 20.00 15.10 4.80

2009 2010
Pre-tax (£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p)
Consensus Consensus 21.91 15.42 4.60 24.06 16.40 5.00
1 Month Change -0.02 -0.07 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 0.00
3 Month Change 0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.43 -0.05 0.00
Growth (%) 11.26 6.36
Standard Deviation (£p) 0.25 0.31
PE Prospective (x) 5.38 5.06

[ards] 17/7/2009 07:13

Major ShareholdersShares in issue:90.8m5p Ords Name Amount % Holding
Hermes Specialist FF Side Pocket Fund II 21,858,383 24.08
Standard Life Invs Ltd 3,642,312 4.01
Henry John Pitman 3,191,871 3.52

Other Directors Name Amount % Holding
Simon Marcus Lawton 712,421 0.841
Peter John Martin 505,062 0.596
David George Thompson 217,500 0.257
Philip Strone Macpherson 50,000 0.059

[wcjan26] 16/7/2009 07:56

"We continue to expect our results for the
full year to be in line with our expectations"



LOL

[ards] 02/7/2009 08:58

same here. this is one of the outstanding shares on the market at the minute. low debt, profitable, great yield and potential target. When market turns this should do ok. you really do not know what is going on in background. I would not be surprised if the mms are trying to fill a large order by dropping price to shake out weak hands.

[2shiversc] 23/6/2009 21:59

Not much activity on this board for a while, guess the depressed share price hasn't helped. Does look like it it starting to move and an up move in a down bias market is surely a good sign. Still holding and adding!

[qs9] 15/5/2009 19:01

Agree, personally like the opportunity but the H2 weighting statement has obviously been taken badly in terms of risk by the market IMO and likely to drift now....shame but hopefully management can still deliver..

[interceptor2] 15/5/2009 15:26

Focus seems to be on TRB saying profits to be more heavily weighted to second half, so might tread water until after the interims are out of the way.