Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[wcjan26] 01/2/2010 10:43

mouchel bid ongoing, but VT group has said that they wont be forced to overpay, and will consider other targets - TRB?

[ards] 30/12/2009 17:48

nice recovery. still pe 6 or so. sticking out like sore thumb as takeover target. lets hope onwards and upwards.

[gary1966] 17/12/2009 20:24

£2.2m for 9 months is crudely £2.93m for 12months. They have bought 26% of this and so extra £763K of historical profit for £4.4m in cash and £1.9m of shares. Business has been growing strongly over the last few years.

Seems a reasonable deal given what the cash is earning them at the moment. Nice to see them putting their cash to some use in these depressed value times. Hopefully also sends a message that they are confident about current and future business levels.

[wcjan26] 14/12/2009 21:37

Does bid for Mouchel mark this as in play next?

[gary1966] 24/11/2009 19:22

Avail Consulting Ltd made £735K after tax in ye 31.12.08. So Tribal have paid £2.8m for £735K x 36.2% of historical profits which total £266K. On the surface this seems very expensive given Tribal's share rating. Hopefully the directors know things that we don't and that in the current year Avail are making considerably more money.

Will be interesting to see what the analysts think but given that they aren't talking about any new financial information I am not sure what they are going to come away with that they don't already know. I assume they will be discussing what they think they can do with Avail.

Having said that on the £2.58m cash they are using they are probably only losing about £26K of interest and so if you look at it like that then it is a good way to use the cash and should enhance earnings in this low interest rate enviroment. Also if the business is growing, which I assume it is rapidly given the price they are paying, then should give a good uplift to earnings.

[gary1966] 24/11/2009 17:08

Topped up again with another 4K shares at 65p. Hope I am not catching a falling knife. Need to have a look at the RNS to try and decide if it is a good deal. If market knew in advance then I would suggest it doesn't think so.

[gary1966] 24/11/2009 14:10

Thanks Hastings. Topped up the other day at what I thought was a good price and now 4p cheaper!!

[hastings] 24/11/2009 12:59

May be of interest to some

[ards] 23/11/2009 18:19

Broker Forecasts
Tribal Group PLC
Detailed Broker Forecasts 2009 2010
Broker Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p)
Shore Capital 13-11-09 BUY 17.60 11.00 4.80 18.10 12.80 5.00
Edison Investmen... 12-11-09 None 17.20 12.20 4.60 17.50 12.20 4.80
Brewin Dolphin I... 29-10-09 BUY 22.00 15.84 4.57 24.00 16.50 4.87
ABN AMRO 02-10-09 BUY 22.27 15.93 4.60 24.13 16.59 5.00
Collins Stewart 17-07-09 BUY 14.90 15.80
2009 2010
Pre-tax (£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(£p) DPS(£p)
Consensus Consensus 17.40 13.16 4.59 18.10 13.86 4.96
1 Month Change -4.60 -2.57 -0.03 -5.84 -2.64 -0.04
3 Month Change -4.34 -1.99 -0.01 -5.71 -2.61 -0.04
Growth (%) -5.04 5.32
Standard Deviation (£p) 2.01 1.89
PE Prospective (x) 5.32 5.05

[ards] 23/11/2009 18:10

felix

you may be right but I think the focus of the public spending cuts will be on recurrent savings. this is where tribal offers value, identifying the recurrent savings and managing the process. you could see a period of delayed contracts until managers decide what helpf they need then a glut of orders. who knows. think most is in price however.

still think this uncertainty is buying opportunity as really is depressing sentiment and mismatched sentiment equals rerating down line. still hopeful for an approach as well as cash flow so strong some private equity group may sniff about. easily pay of interest on loan to buy.

management buyout not impossible either.

[felix99] 23/11/2009 16:36

whichever govt is going to get in is clearly going to hammer the public sector spedning and that will hurt TRB. I had a dabble recently and stopped myself out a week or so back. Good luck but think it might warn again.

[scarthumb] 23/11/2009 15:41

What's wrong with this one?

[hastings] 22/11/2009 21:34

Very high yielder this, quite surprised at the level of cover.
Well worth a nibble Gary1966!!!

[gary1966] 10/11/2009 11:28

Decided to nibble at a few yesterday/today as an initial holding.

4696 shares this morning and 304 late yesterday were in fact buys not sells at 74p. My contribution to the share price.

GLA

[v11slr] 05/11/2009 11:55

CWA1 - ignore this (you've already read it) ;-)
Everyone else, interesting precis of Tribal.

[cwa1] 05/11/2009 11:44

Just dipped a toe in at 69p to join you all as a medium term investment. Good luck with it all.

[wjccghcc] 05/11/2009 10:54

Although if they're generating so much cash, how come net debt increased from 15.8mm to 19.6mm in the last 3 months?

[jgoold] 04/11/2009 22:19

This company is trading at 3 times last year's operating cash flow and if the conversion rate is the same this year it will produce similar cash in 2009. Remember, much the recent losses were largely non cash charges. With good cash generation (covering the dividend 4x) and a forward PE of around 4.5 this is good value despite the recent warning.

[ards] 04/11/2009 21:26

depends on your time horizon. I have survived in this game quite a few years and one thing I have learned is profitable companies have down patches due to sentiment. this is an extremely profitable company and potential target yet sentiment to any type of service/consultancy company is dire because of the dire public finances. However if you ignore sentiment for a minute this baby has a good pipe line of contracts, very profitable, flexible and room to cost cost and sell low margin businesses. call me a plonker but it is actually a good company. If all the companies that I owned were capped at 60m and pulling in at least 15m profit a year I would be in heaven. Poor sentiment and good company means contrarian investment means profit 6 months down line. may be further profit warning sure, eg 15m v 17m, and price drops 30%, bring it on.

[she-ra] 04/11/2009 15:22

ards - You might also see it as a purchase to shore up confidence before another expected profits warning maybe?

Who knows.

[ards] 04/11/2009 12:37

dean

in your dreams shorty

[deanroberthunt] 04/11/2009 12:00

they can buy as many as they like, this is going down, simples.....

the government have just pumped another 40bn plus into the the never eNding blackhole that is our banks......people should have gone to jail over this, its beyond a disgrace...

notwithstanding my viewpoint, its simple economics that in order to bail out the banks further cuts have to be made elsewhere...and big ones going forward........co's that rely heavily on public spending are not where the clever money will be flowing for the foreseeable future imo...

this is currently a SELL or at best an AVOID.....divi will be under threat in the mid term as sales and profits come under pressure.

[v11slr] 04/11/2009 10:21

A non-exec's wife has bought 50000 or he's bought them in his wife's name. Either way it's a confident move. :-)